Very stressful week, I took my biggest loss ever, and then was trading very emotionally the next day and what could have been +5k day ended up being -3k day all from that "cover short and then go long trade", and yesterday I felt like I "coulda woudla shoulda" made like 5-10k on my 4k shares of GEVO long at 3.78. But it doesn't matter now, it's all in the past, start fresh again next week. The total for the week is around -$8000, pretty bad, but I'll "live to fight another today". It's all "relative", I started trading a bit bigger and bigger over the last few weeks, the first week in April I lost 4k, which was about 1/3 of what I made in March (12k), this week I lost 8k which was about 2/5 of what I made in April (19k). I bounced back twice as strong the next three weeks of April, I'm hoping that I will be able to do something similar again this month, but we'll see, I will just take each day one step at a time, focus on DAILY CONSISTENCY, GREEN EVERYDAY and not going for the "homerun".
I still want to get better at holding for bigger moves and not making all my gains from 5-10 cents and only making a lot just because I was scaling in and out with a lot of size. I also need to stop holding through so many big unrealized losses, I let them get so big that it's way too much to just "panic out" and if it "never comes back", it could easily become a HUGE loss (4k+) either from finally taking it or by getting "bought in". I got lucky today and I got lucky so many times over the last two months, this week was an example of what happens when it "never comes back", I got smoked by PTBI and unfortunately I had about 2-3x the size that I had normally been trading. It's not a very good way to trade, if I keep trading like this all the time, I don't know how successful it can be long term, I may make money for 1-2 weeks but then that 1/10 times is doesn't "come back" I will lose everything I just made. This is the reason I was struggling for 6 months, I would make money for a week or two then take a huge loss and give it all back, these last two months have been good overall, maybe my trading was better, maybe I just "got lucky" with a lot of my unrealized losses, either way I need to majorly improve on this area of my trading. I DON'T HAVE TO "WIN" EVERY TRADE, I can always take the loss and re-enter again lower/higher and easily make it all back and more if it comes back to my average from there from a BETTER ENTRY, rather than just "holding and hoping".
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
GEVO
Yesterday's big runner, this gapped up (on no news) from 5.46 and hit as high 7.43 early premarket, but was mostly trading around 6.40-6.70, until it ramped from 6.50 to 7.10 in about 5 minutes at around 9:15 or so. It opened at 6.97 and spiked to 7.24, then washed out to 6.56 and I scaled long with 2k shares 6.64 average, I scaled out super early for about 20 cents total and it spiked all the way back up to 7.24 for a split second. I was trying to be careful because of the huge ramp premarket just before the open and also because this one spiked first then washed out, PTBI the last two days was a washout first then a spike back up and further, I think it's easier to get a bigger move if it washes out first and then ramps. It washed out again and I rebought with about the same entry but I was even more careful this time after it just failed again and I sold for 10 cents. It looked like it was going to "perk" through VWAP and spike higher and it went up to 6.88 (VWAP was 6.78), then it slammed down to 6.30 on that same candle (probably faked out everyone that bought/covered into that "quick pop"). I started in too early into that washout on the second candle, it had missed my "fishing order" at 6.22 by 3 cents, and I wanted to make sure to get in if it bounced from 6.25, so I bought some at 6.25, then my other "fishing orders" got filled and I ended up with 4k shares 6.15 average and it bounced back to 6.22, I should have sold some to "reduce risk" and be able to rebuy again lower because my average wasn't that great. It washed out again and I added another 1500, now I had 5.5k shares 6.09 average and it bounced to 6.14, once again I should have sold some/all, it washed out again. I still wasn't super worried, I figured it would have one last big bounce over 6, I just should have managed it better, selling some/all into the bounces and I could have had an average that was 10-20 cents lower. It spiked up to 6.30 and I scaled out into that push from 6.17-6.29 for a decent profit but from a bad average and not the best management of the trade. It faded from there to eventually go red on the day and it hit as low as 5.21. Then it "hung around" 5.30-5.70 most of the day, it had one push to 6.20, then "peaked out" there and faded back to the lows by the close. I scalped it on some of those washouts, with tiny size for tiny gains. Then scaled in 3k 5.60 average (bottom was 5.53), I sold 2k into the bounce to 5.67 (missed the last 1k and should have just "ditched" it for breakeven instead of "trying to make it work"), then added a bunch lower to have 5.9k shares 5.50 average and sold it all for a tiny profit (the most I was down was around 5 cents but still risky with that much size if this went any lower I could have given back a lot). Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 6.64 | 6.82 | 2000 | $0.19 | $370.00 | 2.79% |
Long | 6.65 | 6.75 | 2000 | $0.10 | $200.00 | 1.50% |
Long | 6.09 | 6.23 | 5500 | $0.14 | $780.00 | 2.33% |
Long | 5.94 | 6.00 | 1000 | $0.06 | $60.00 | 1.01% |
Long | 5.77 | 5.86 | 987 | $0.09 | $88.83 | 1.56% |
Long | 5.53 | 5.60 | 7900 | $0.06 | $490.00 | 1.12% |
ICLD
Had a big move yesterday to 4.09, then gave it all back and closed near the lows at 3.37. Then "they" had a positive PR today about a new contract and it gapped up to 3.70-3.90 range. It had some "emotional candles" near the open to take advantage of but I was mostly focused on GEVO and I also couldn't short those spikes because there are no shares to short. I scalped it twice into washouts for very tiny profits on very small size, it didn't quite get to some of other places I wanting to buy and I was more focused on GEVO and CALA most of the time.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 3.72 | 3.77 | 1100 | $0.05 | $60.00 | 1.47% |
Long | 4.14 | 4.21 | 1000 | $0.07 | $70.00 | 1.69% |
CALA
"Thinly traded stock" and big former runner, which ran from about 10 to 30+ in about a week, on only 500k-1.5m shares traded per day, it's come all the way back to about 9 (basically where it "broke out from" before), and it released positive earnings today, all these things mean, "don't be very short biased". It gapped up from 9.52 to about 10.50, and made it's way up to 11.20's, "hung around" 11-11.20 for a while, then went all the way up to 12.85. I scaled in 500 shares at a time, a bit too early and with too much size, I had 2k shares 12.75 avg and it pulled to 12.60, I was trying to cover some there but didn't get filled, then there was a big buyer (about 10k shares) at 12.65, but it was still seeming like it might go lower and then were was about a 5k seller at 12.66, and the 12.65 buyer got completely hit, and I was expecting a washout to at least 12.50's and maybe lower to cover into, but it went to 12.60 then ramped back to 12.88 on that candle. I should have just taken the loss 12.75-12.95 and been out, but I didn't, I added another 500 shares at 12.96 thinking that it might top out at 13, then it popped to 13.50 in one candle because it's so "thin and spready". I missed the add at the top of that, and then stupidly added another 400 shares at 13.22, I had 2900 shares with a terrible average (12.86), I was down almost a dollar/share at the highs at 13.74 and it luckily came all the way back to my average and I made about 10 cents on it. I wished I had "flipped long" my covers as it came right back to 13.40 within the next 10-15 minutes. For some reason, I often I end up more "short biased" if that's what I first did on it, and more "long biased" if that's what I did on it, and that's what happened again here with my re-entries. I tried to short 500 shares at 13.29 and got 100 shares filled and it went to 13.05, I then added another 500 at 13.23 so I had something meaningful to cover. It's very "thinly traded" with a 5-15 cent spread and it can jump up quickly in one candle. It spiked up to 13.50 in one candle and I stupidly added a lot (500 shares at a time) into that, to have 2900 shares with a terrible average again at 13.38. It's so "thin", I had a 5-15 cent loss for a few minutes but didn't take it and it spiked up 40 cents in one candle. Terrible trading again, but luckily I just "held and hoped" and it came back almost to my average again. I covered most of it, then was readding pops and covering dips again (most orders were 500 shares) and eventually I covered it all and made a decent amount overall but it was a terrible trade again. My covers were good at the time but I didn't get back in and it faded from 13.60's to 12.30, then came back to finish at the highs. It was still a "thinly traded" stock today with a 5-15 cent spread but it did have quite a bit of volume, ended up finishing with 4.5m shares traded today, compared to the 1.5m it traded on some of those days where it moved 5-10 dollars on the day, this could have easily went higher than it did today and I NEED TO USE WAY LESS SIZE ON STOCKS LIKE THIS AND BE MUCH MORE CAREFUL, I got lucky twice, I could have easily lost 2-5k on this stock today if it "never came back". I also have a history with this stock, I got smoked short on it the day it ran from 20-30.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Short | 12.86 | 12.75 | 2900 | $0.10 | $304.00 | 0.82% |
Short | 13.50 | 13.36 | 5200 | $0.14 | $722.15 | 1.03% |
Long | 12.58 | 12.74 | 500 | $0.16 | $80.00 | 1.27% |
- Lessons:
- Always use MUCH SMALLER SIZE on "spready" stocks with this much range (1-1.5k shares ABSOLUTE MAX, 500-1k is more than enough)
- Always make sure to size back down for "breakevenish" if you sized in bigger than you wanted to be, don't get too greedy
- Try to wait for "topping action" rather than trying to "pick the top" on the way up, these "thin" stocks can just keep going and going, one order can spike it 50+ cents
- DO NOT SHORT a "thinly" traded stock midrange or close to HOD on it's "next leg up", there's a good chance it will at least test HOD and it may keep going from there or it may do a "HOD rejection", but you can get a much better entry if you are patient and wait to see how it reacts around HOD area before "jumping in" too early
No comments:
Post a Comment