Trades for May 14, 2015

Well, once again, a decent day "PnL wise" but I still traded poorly and "got lucky".  It could have been -4k at one point, could have been +2.4k without the last trade, but that's alright, I "survived" and ended up green somehow, new day tomorrow, I've gotta stop trading so big and so recklessly.

I'm not sure if all this "rambling on" is all that great of a "learning tool" for myself and others, but I just had to get some of my thoughts out there.  I can write lesson after lesson, day after day, but if I never actually APPLY MYSELF and start following the rules/lessons that I write, there isn't really much point.  I have hardly changed anything in my trading, even though I write down the same lessons/mistakes day after day.  I was talking to Nikko today and he thinks I should just try focusing on changing ONE THING at a time, and then slowly "fixing" my mistakes/weaknesses like that, it's very hard to make any changes when you are trying to change everything all at once, just like trading, when you try to nail everything you end up missing everything, just gotta FOCUS on one thing at a time.

I've been doing pretty good lately in terms of dollar amounts, bouncing back from my big loss last week, but I've been trading pretty poorly and holding through big unrealized losses every single day.  I just enter a trade, then add if I'm wrong, then "hold and hope", and I've been doing this over and over again and with a lot more size lately than I was using before, so the unrealized losses are just that much bigger.  I also haven't been making very much compared to the amount of size that I've been trading, other people make a "lot more with a lot less", like my friend Alex (AT09_Trader), who has been making 1-2k a day lately with like 1/3 of the size and a lot less trades and a lot less stress.

I got "bailed out" of my "dead wrong"/"way too early" short on VBLT, I could have lost 4k+ at the highs.  Then when I finally covered at 6.10ish (from 6.35 average after realizing some losses), I was up $750 on the day, I thought I was being smart by covering it all and looking for a bounce to 6.30-6.40 to reshort, but it failed at 6.17 and slowly faded from there to 5.50's eventually, instead of just regretting my covers, I was now "bagholding" a long position from 5.82 (which I had 10 cents profit on but was hoping for a quick spike over 6 to sell into but it failed and I missed selling and didn't sell for breakevenish).  So frustrating, even though I traded it terribly, had I held my short position to 5.50-5.70, I would have made another $2000-3000, but instead I was down $1500-2000 unrealized on my long position, I ended up getting lucky on that as well, and sold it all 5.75-5.83 for a $64 dollar loss overall (I had sold 1k shares earlier for about 8 cents profit).  Just absolutely terrible trading today (and a lot of the days recently even though I made money), I'm quite embarrassed of it, I want to someday have a "big PnL day" from GOOD TRADING, without holding through huge unrealized losses and getting "bailed out" all the time.  Like I always say, I might "get lucky" 9/10 times but that ONE TIME I don't, then I lose a ton like I did last week on PTBI.

I need to decrease my position sizes and focus on bigger moves, I've been trading insanely risky lately, sometimes it works out and I scale out for 5-15 cents with big size and make some, but most of the time I'm down a lot more unrealized to make a lot less than I was just down.  I've got to focus more on the BIG PICTURE TREND and FOLLOW IT, I was fighting it short when it was spiking/uptrending, then was going long when it was still downtrending.  Then, I was shorting again when it was uptrending and scalped about 10 cents out of it a few times but it still kept holding higher lows and uptrending (and I didn't "long my covers" which would have worked out really well in this case).  I was too short biased and it never had the "fade back to the lows" and it kept basing at higher levels, that's why I was covering, I wasn't trying for 10 cents, but that's what I took when it was basing at 5.65 and again at 5.95.  It squeezed into the close and I gave back about half my day on the last trade, covering 5k for about a 5 cent loss and the other 3k for about a 35 cent loss.  I was just too "short biased" and was going against the overall trend, it worked out a few times because I made sure to cover, but then I gave back most of that anyways on the last trade.  

Also, I need to pay attention to the time, I didn't realized that it was the last 30 mins of the day when I was doing my last trade (I was still thinking 6.18-6.20 and 6.25 VWAP was going to "top out" and fade back down but it spiked from 6.15 to 6.45 with "one order" which totally screwed me and I still didn't realize it was the last 30 minutes until a few minutes after that), and I ended up fighting it into the close and then covering the rest of it afterhours in the 6.50's for a $1300 loss in total.  I used to never hold overnight/afterhours (it's sort of one of my "rules"), but yesterday I got "stuck" on GIGA and decided to and it worked out, today, it didn't work and I lost a bunch more than I "should have".  I'm not going to hold into afterhours/overnight ever again, super frustrating, I was just up $2400 realized, then up $2200 realized and breakevenish unrealized at 6.14 at 15:48 (12 minutes before the close), but I wanted the big end of day washout and only covered 600 shares, then I didn't take the loss at 6.20-6.35 and "got stuck" holding the last 3000 shares into afterhours, it pulled to 6.26 from one order (on 25k shares) during afterhours and I was going to put an order in at 6.30's right before that but I didn't have any orders in yet and I missed it, I could have easily covered at 6.40 and still been at $1500 on the day, but I didn't and I ended up covering it 5.50-5.57 to finish at $1100 on the day.

One of the main lessons that is reinforced today, is that "Day One" parabolic's are very dangerous to short, this went from 5.05 to 5.59 in the first minute candle, then from 5.55 to 6.40 on the third minute candle and I shorted way too early into that and never took the loss and it had another "leg up" to 7.09.  Similar to PTIE, it went straight up from 2.44 to 3.50 in two candles and then another "leg up" higher to 3.65 and it "peaked" at around the first 10 minutes of the day or so.  These are the moves that are extremely dangerous to short, I had like a 6.20 average which was terrible, but just imagine those people that were shorting from 5.10-5.60 in the first two minutes, and people shorting PTIE before 3 in the first 1-2 minutes on "Day One".  I talked to Nikko again today, and he has told me this before, to try to wait for the first 10-15 minutes to short on "Day One", wait for it to show some weakness, and short when it's "topping out" and you have more of a set risk.  Imagine, just being patient for 10-15 minutes, and waiting for a GOOD ENTRY with a SET RISK and using 1/3 of the size and being patient with a winner on it, I would make a lot more and with a lot less risk/stress.

Please, do not follow my example of my "add, add, adding" to a loser, it's a very bad habit that I have and I don't know if I can break it, I may just have to "work around it" or at least not be so "reckless" with it.  I've still been making decent money overall the last few months, but it's just very risky and you can lose a lot pretty quick, only learn from the chart setups and what I post about what good entries and exits are and how to use VWAP and other chart patterns to your advantage when planning out your trades.  Also, I am a total "piker"/scalper, and I don't think that's the best way to trade either, I have been wanting to try to focus on bigger moves, but I haven't really done that very much yet, I want to gradually move to trading for bigger moves and gradually move away from "add, add, adding" so much, I think this is what I HAVE TO DO to be successful at trading LONGTERM and also to be able to get to the "next level" and have endless potential of scaling up size (you can only trade so much size trying to scalp small movements, the liquidity usually isn't there for really big position sizes and it would never work very well).  

Because I made so many different trades on VBLT with so many different entries and exits and I didn't calculate it earlier, the trades might not be exact, it was hard to figure out the exact number of shares and entries and exits when I get partial fills and such, I did my best estimation.  I just recently started uploading my trades to "Profit.ly" (http://profit.ly/user/JGram) (at the end of each month), so the exact amounts will be on there eventually.  

FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.

VBLT

This is a low float (6m), "former runner", with positive news (biotech data results) afterhours yesterday and it gapped up from 4.08 to 5.05 open.  I already explained most of the trades earlier in the text above, so just look at the chart and the text below to see the actual trades, but basically I was fighting the trend most of the day and I held through some big unrealized losses for breakeven/small profit, and only making some decent gains on two of the trades just because of having a large sized position scaling in and out (like I said before I wasn't trying for 10 cents but it was "holding/basing", so I covered it all, too bad I wasn't focused on longing dips or longing my covers, I could have made a lot). 

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

6.30

6.21

9000

$0.09

$771.10

1.36%

Long

5.82

5.81

8500

-$0.01

-$64.00

-0.13%

Short	5.80	5.71	2000	$0.09	$188.55	1.63%
Short	5.79	5.69	6690	$0.10	$648.04	1.67%
Short	6.11	5.99	7498	$0.12	$892.44	1.95%
Short	6.18	6.35	7925	-$0.16	-$1,303.50	-2.66%

• Lessons:
• Try to wait for the first 10-15 minutes to short on "Day One", wait for it to show some weakness, and short when it's "topping out" and you have more of a set risk
• Be careful of adding so much, and being is so big, these types of stocks can move 10-30+ cents in one candle from "one order" (it spiked a dollar on the third candle, and it spiked 20-30 cents in 1-2 candles three different times in the last few hours) (I know I said 10k shares was my max and I still stayed below that, but I was still sized in too big for the "setups" and for the range/movement of this stock)
• Focus more on the BIG PICTURE TREND and FOLLOW IT
• Pay attention to the time, try to avoid fighting an uptrending/spiking stock into the close
• Make sure to manage positions better, be covering at key areas and then replacing those shares again higher (I could have/should have covered 6.30-6.50 and reshorted at 7, or covered 6.50's and reshorted 6.90's, or covered 6.30ish and reshorted 6.70's, I would have been able to have a much better average each time and save myself a lot overall, even though I may have to realize a big loss at first, it's always good to take the profit/loss when it looks like it will go higher and then you can just replace those shares again higher)
• Try to always make "smart add's" and AT LEAST exit your add's for a profit into a dip/bounce, rather than turning "profitable add's" into losses and then you are down that much more from your first position AND the add's