Monday, May 18, 2015

Trades for May 18, 2015

Well, that was my best day ever in terms of the actual PnL (my best before this was 3.6k last month). The trading wasn't that great (not completely terrible, but it could have been much better, and it was still very risky), and I mostly made a lot just because of having huge size, I went too big and was down quite a bit unrealized twice.  I didn't respect my 10k shares max "rule" that I started last week, I'm going to try to work on one "weakness"/"problem" in my trading each week, and slowly improve my trading one thing at a time.  My goal for this week is to ALWAYS STAY under 10k shares max, also trying to use position sizes relative to the quality of the setup/range of the stock, but the 10k shares max part is the absolute must that I have to respect for the rest of the week.

I'm not 100% sure on the number of shares and the exact entry/exit on the first trade, but the total "PnL" on it is exact.  Like I said last week, the exact trades will be on "Profit.ly" (http://profit.ly/user/JGram) at the end of each month.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
  



EBIO
Big gap down from 11.97 and hitting as low as 2.11 premarket on failed drug trial results, then bouncing back up to 3.40's (still during premarket), it opened at 2.90ish and "hung around" 2.90-3.08 for the first 7 minutes, then spiked to 3.35 in one candle, I scaled in short, way too early, into that (SSR is on, I was trying to short into the spike anticipating a washout and fade back down but it went further than I expected), and had a 3.28-3.30 average and pretty big size and it dipped to 3.23 and I was trying to cover some 3.24-2.25 but I missed it, it popped past 3.30 again and up to 3.50's from there.  I added a bit more and ended up with around 13k shares (too much) 3.38 average (down $1000-$2000 unrealized at one point), and it came down to 3.23-3.30 range and I had covered most of it, I still had about 6k left and it dipped to 3.16, I got 1k covered 3.17 and 1k 3.18 but I missed covering the last 4k and it popped back right back up in two candles (I should have taken the ask at 3.18-3.20 and been done with it, but I still had an order sitting at 3.17 and only got 100 shares filled on it, I was trying to save a few bucks by adding liquidity and I missed covering 4k shares and it messed up the rest of the trade).  It came back to 3.36 and I readded a little bit, then it came back to 3.21 and I had covered some from 3.22-3.27 but still had about 3k shares and it had just made a HIGHER LOW and RECLAIMED VWAP and was starting a "bull flag breakout", all things that mean you should be long or at least not short anymore, but I was too stubborn and I was frustrated that I missed covering at 3.16 (subconsciously, I wasn't actually mad/emotional).  I should have just taken +5 cents or breakeven on my last 3k shares, instead of "trying to make it work", I was readding way too much way too soon, I had big size 3.46 average and it dipped to 3.43 at 10:27, I missed covering any and it spiked up to 3.64 on the next candle which was a new HOD, I added a bit more from 3.60-3.69, I had about 15k shares (too much) 3.48ish average (down around $2000-3500 unrealized at the very most, with 2k realized profits already).  I got lucky again and it came back to 3.40's.  I covered everything 3.44-3.31 for about another $1500 or so (about $1500 on the first part and about $1500 on the second part, just because I had 10-15k shares, ideally I would have managed the first part better and made sure to cover the last 3k shares, and then been shorting 3.50-3.70 with a much better average and a completely new trade).  When covering the rest of that trade, I accidentally ended up long 100 shares and I just got rid of it for 4 cents profit.  All of my covers from 3.44-3.31 (and I had covered about 4k shares 3.32ish) were pretty good and it bounced all the back to 3.55, and I was able to reshort there with a completely new trade and a good average, I had 6k shares 3.52 average and I covered it all 3.42ish when it seemed to be basing, I missed another 10-15 cents on that trade but that's alright.  It was trading in a 3.30ish to 3.60ish "channel range" most of the day, I tried to short that 3.60 push at 13:10 but my orders were waiting 3.63-3.66, then I couldn't get filled when I put my limit order at 3.59 to short when it was 3.59-3.60 because of SSR and it tanked to 3.36 in one candle.  It came back to 3.60's and I started shorting there, I had 3k shares 3.66 avg, I was somewhat using HOD as risk, but I was okay with HOD "over/under"/"rejection", I added another 2k in the 3.70's when it seemed to be "stuffing" and I now had 5k shares 3.69 avg.  I covered most of it 3.58-3.63 when it seemed to be holding and I only had 600 shares left and I covered that at 3.60 just to be done with it, it finally did the "big washout" that I was looking for, down to 3.40ish, but I had already covered it all because it was too slow/grinding (I wanted that type of a washout earlier and I didn't have much patience with it).  It held VWAP as support and spiked right back to the highs in the last 20 minutes (I had no position, but just something to be aware of, you have to respect when it's holding VWAP and also avoid shorting into the last 10 minutes of spiking).                


Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 3.43 3.32 26100 $0.12 $3,068.19 3.42%
Long 3.32 3.36 100 $0.04 $4.00 1.20%
Short 3.52 3.42 6000 $0.10 $601.11 2.84%
Short 3.69 3.60 5000 $0.09 $448.00 2.43%
  • Lessons:
  • Be careful of adding so much, and being is so big (10k shares is my absolute max that I am trying to respect and I have to plan my trades accordingly)
  • Try to always make "smart add's" and AT LEAST exit your add's for a profit into a dip/bounce, rather than turning "profitable add's" into losses and then you are down that much more from your first position AND the add's
  • Make sure to cover ALL/MOST into big washouts (especially with SSR on), it ramps right back up very quickly (can always take the ask, rather than trying to add liquidity and missing it, this is what I should have done at 3.17-3.20 at 10:04 into that washout)
  • Do not "try to make it work" when you missed covering some or got partial fills, make sure to exit your position once your thesis/idea for the trade no longer exists, even if you have to change the order and/or take the ask
  • Pay attention to big picture trend-lines and "flag patterns" and respect them (I have posted a second chart with some trend-lines drawn on it, it looks sort of weird right now with the whole chart but in real time, those patterns seem to work quite often, the "bull flag pattern" breakout at 10:20 was the most important, and I should have taken my 3k shares off for breakevenish but instead I was still in and then readding all the way up quite stupidly)
  • Try to be a little bit more patient with a winner sometimes (both my good entries later on, I covered for 9-10 cents because it was basing but it was still pretty "weak", and I missed 10-20 cents on both of them, if I had a lower average, I'm sure I would have still been holding, I have to try to have that same patience sometimes, but when I actually have a good average)



LTBR
This gapped up from 1.39 to 1.84 open on positive news, "four US electric utility companies asked the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to review its patented metallic fuel design", the type of news doesn't really matter to me, I don't know enough about news/fundamentals to really know what a stock should do from certain news, I just react to the price action.  This is similar to FCSC and BSQR in the sense that the float isn't super low (16m according to Finviz), but it just usually trades 10-100k shares per day, and then it just has a big volume day with some news and can have a lot of range (it traded 15m shares today).  It opened at 1.84 and went straight up to 2.40 in two candles, came back to 2.20ish, then up to 2.92 in another 3 candles.  I was still in EBIO and watching both, but I scaled in short with 1k 2.72 and 1k 2.82, and covered 1k 2.55 and 1k 2.45, I was still too busy with EBIO and I didn't reshort it and it faded down to 1.90ish.  It offered some reshorting opportunities with a 2.10-2.15 "top" and a slow fade to 1.70's in the last few hours, but I didn't take it.

Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 2.77 2.50 2000 $0.27 $540.00 9.75%
  • Lessons:
  • Can always reshort pops/lower highs for the "bigger picture fade", and trying to be patient with it and only covering when it starts to grind/base/level out
  • Can always reshort a key resistance area on a stock that's still below VWAP and "topping out" at a key level multiple times (2.10-2.15 in this case) looking for a "late day fade" (this faded from 2.10' to 1.70's in the last 2 hours, which is a pretty big move, especially percentage wise)  

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