Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Trades for May 12, 2015

Decent day again, I nailed PTIE pretty good (or so I thought until I watched it fade to 2.50) with pretty big size and was up 2k in the first hour.  Then I almost gave it all back on PTBI, turning a "scalp" into a "baghold" when I got a partial fill on my exit (only 60 shares filled), I ended up giving back $1400, then got back in with almost the same size with an average about 5 cents below where I just sold it all and made about half of it back.  Ended up getting back to about 2k on the day, mostly from a "forced" trade on GEVO with more size than I wanted to have, and I sold it all for a small profit.

Looking at PTIE now, I left about 70-90 cents "on the table" on 8-12k shares, I could have potentially made another 5-10k today had I done it perfectly.  Some of my covers were to "size down" when 3.40 kept holding support, and the rest were at 3.34-3.28 which were decent AT THE TIME.  I could have gotten back in at 3.40ish twice using "VWAP reject" as a guide, I didn't get back in because I thought it might just be slow moving with a 3.20-3.40 range for a while and I also was starting my terrible PTBI trade around 11:09 when PTIE had that second "reject at 3.40, and I was busy with that for a while.

I few "easy trades" I missed today were on VGGL and ESI.  I had shares to short of VGGL today, but I missed the "perfect opportunity" from 3.90's when I was focused on PTIE, then didn't short it anywhere else throughout the day and it faded from 3.70's to 3.40's and from 3.50's to 3.10's.  I also saw ESI at 3.45 with bad news and it had faded from the 4's, but I didn't take any trade on it and it faded to 2.07 within half an hour.  I rarely short these "fade, fade, fade" charts, it's so hard to know how far it can go, I thought 4's to 3.40's might have been a pretty decent move and then it goes to low 2's, so crazy, I guess I should sometimes take a very small position on these until I get more confident/comfortable in these types of setups, I've seen them "play out" time and time again but I've almost never traded them.  The main reason I missed a bunch of these trades, was because I was busy "bagholding" my PTBI trade at the time when VGGL, PTIE and ESI were all "setting up", when VGGL was spiking to 3.70's, when PTIE was rejecting 3.40 and when ESI was 3-3.40.

Still an awesome day, can't complain too much about 2k in a day, it's been a great last 3 trading days. There's just so much opportunity out there every single day with so many $3-10 dollar "momentum" stocks "in play" everyday with a lot of volume and range, because of this, even 1-2k days still sometimes feel like they should have been more.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.




PTIE
Had positive news today, it's not that "low of float" (38m), but it still went from 2.44 open (1.94 previous close) up to 3.49 in the first 3 candles.  I scaled in short into that parabolic and had 4k shares short 3.30 average and it pulled to 3.20, I covered only 1k at 3.21, I was looking for the "home run", thinking it could pull back to 3.06-3.16 considering it just came from 2.44.  It popped back up to 3.55 and I readded 2k shares to now have 5k shares 3.37 average, it came back to 3.25 and held a "higher low" and I should have covered all/most of it there and waited for higher again to reshort.  I missed covering any and it spiked up to 3.65 and I was adding quite a bit of size here, I had around 12k shares max at one point on this trade (with around a 3.50 average), I was sizing in and out but didn't cover as much as I should have around 3.35-3.40 when it kept holding support but I was trying to go for the "bigger picture trade/homerun" with size if it broke.  It still worked out pretty good overall, I ended up making about 2k on it total within the first hour.  I should have been reshorting "VWAP rejects" at 3.40 and I could have been in for another 50-90 cent fade, such a perfect "slow and steady fade" off of that last "3.40 reject" and it went all the way to 2.50 without much of a bounce, I hope to someday have patience for a fade like this.  The two main things I should have done better was covering most/all 3.25-3.30 for a small profit when it was still "early" and it would likely have another "leg up", and the second is making sure to get back in when it's "setting up again", 3.40 (VWAP) was a key area of support then it became resistance on two bounce attempts and then it slowly faded from there all the way to 2.50 with not much more than a 10 cent bounce the whole way (not much reason to cover).     
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 3.50 3.37 15000 $0.13 $1,976.00 3.76%
  • Lessons:
  • Always make sure to "get back in" when the trade is setting up again (previous support and VWAP becoming resistance is a great setup for a reshort)
  • Try to be patient with a winner and have conviction in your trades, if I had reshorted, I then should have only covered when I had a REASON TO, try slowly moving your "stop down", once it breaks 3.20, then plan to stop out at 3.20 if it's reclaiming, once it breaks 3, then plan to stop out at 3 if it's reclaiming and so on (even if I reshorted at 3.40, I think I still would have covered 3-3.25 and still missed a lot) 



PTBI
Missed this whole "R/G squeeze" from 8.80's to 10+ when I was focused on PTIE.  Missed some long scalps when it was still holding R/G and it squeezed up bit higher from there, that was the last "stuff"/"HOD rejection" and I tried buying it again at the same support area but it was now acting "heavier" and seemed like the "backside".  I had 3k shares 9.85 average and it bounced to 9.94, I tried to sell some and only got 60 shares filled, I had breakeven for a few minutes and missed selling any, then it washed out lower and I added a bit more.  I then had 5-15 cent loss on 4.4k shares 9.82 average ($500ish) and once again, I missed selling any, not being aggressive enough to get filled/hit bid.  It "SSR tanked" to 9.30 in a few candles and I was down around 2k unrealized at the lows.  It bounced to 9.60's and I only got about half of it sold, I readded lower and sold some into the bounce again, readded again and didn't get much sold, I now had around 4k shares again with a new average of 9.58 (with realized losses already).  I had missed selling much and it was still acting "weak" and it looked like it might washout another 20 cents, so I "panic sold" it all at 9.40-9.42 with the plan to get back in lower if it was holding so I wouldn't regret my sells.  I added back my shares again a bit too quickly, I had about 4k shares again 9.37 average, it bounced from there and I sold it into the bounce for a small profit and made about half of the loss back.  I still don't have shares to short, that is why I can only go long (even if I see good shorting setups/opportunities).  I scalped two other washouts for tiny profits (one was only a 100 share partial fill).  Then, it hit as low at 8.85 at one point and LOD was 8.81, I had my "finger on the trigger" to take 2k shares long at 8.86, but I was too slow and I missed it and it popped right back up from there and went to 9.30's eventually from there.
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Long 9.66 9.49 8300 -$0.17 -$1,384.22 -1.73%
Long 9.37 9.55 4049 $0.18 $721.25 1.90%
Long 9.39 9.48 1000 $0.09 $90.00 0.96%
Long 8.94 9.08 100 $0.14 $14.00 1.57%
  • Lessons:
  • Always be aware of the overall trend, and make sure to respect it (a huge pull off of HOD and going back red on the day and acting "heavy" are not conditions where you want to be long)
  • Don't turn a "scalp" into a "baghold" just because you missed exits or got a partial fill, take the small loss and move on even if you missed the "perfect exits"
  • Have to take the loss sooner, do not "hold and hope", can always take the loss and get back in again later if it setups up again, there is so much missed opportunity when you are holding onto a stubborn losing trade (especially with most of your BP) (I missed "good setups" on PTIE, VGGL, ESI and PTBI 9.30's-9.60's washout long if I wasn't already in, all because I was "stuck" holding this stubborn losing trade)  



GEVO
Similar chart to PTBI, big run, then big fade for 2-3 days, this went from 7.20's to 4.40's in two days, I was wanting a gap down and opening washout to 4-4.40 and go long from that and get the big rebound (similar to what PTBI did yesterday), but it opened at about "even" on the day and then went straight up from the 4.55 open all the way up to 5.40 eventually.  I still don't have shares to short, and I missed other "long scalps" when it still had some "momentum".  I "forced" a long trade around 4.60 on the R/G area once it had pretty much given back it's whole run, thinking it would bounce some from there.  I bought too much in the 4.60's and it dipped to 4.53, I added a little bit more and then sold it all for a small profit, I didn't have the greatest average and there wasn't that much volume, this wasn't the best trade but it worked out okay this time.  It had earnings afterhours and spiked all the way up to 5.50-5.80, which could have been a huge profit, but I wasn't planning on holding into earnings and I almost never hold anything overnight, it could have went either way.   
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Long 4.62 4.69 8000 $0.07 $530.00 1.43%


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