Monday, May 4, 2015

Trades for May 4, 2015

Nice day to start the week, up $2100 within the first 2 hours is awesome, and then adding a little bit more afterhours.  I could have made a lot more if some of the stocks got to where I was wanting, but I was trying to wait for the "perfect entries" and didn't get in when the stock started to "top out" or "hold support" before it got where I wanted.  For example, on the second run-up on CYTR, I wanted 5.08-5.20 to short and didn't get in when 5 was topping and it faded to 4.60's then eventually 4.30's, ISNS, I wanted 3.39-3.50 to short, and didn't get in when 3.25-3.33 was topping and it faded to 2.95-3.10, and ICLD, I wanted 2.90's for a long, and didn't get in when 3.01 held or when 3.10 reclaimed or when it kept holding "higher lows" and it went up to 4.18 eventually (I was also waiting for a dip to 3.60's and it kept holding at 3.75 and I didn't take it, I could have scalped it for 10-30 cents so many times but I kept looking for a bigger dip that never came).  Lately, I've been trying to be fairly selective with my entries and if I don't get them, then I usually don't take the trade.  Sure, I miss some potential profits, but it's literally impossible to give back your "early morning profits" if you don't take another trade, I'm still trying to "find the balance" between "patience" and "overtrading" as I talk about in the next paragraph below.  A big issue that I've struggled with in the past, is "overtrading" during the middle of the day and giving back everything I made in the first 1-2 hours, I've been a lot better at controlling this over the past two months, but sometimes the "fear of missing out" still "gets me" and I force a trade with a bad entry and/or too much size.

It's a constant "battle" to try to "perfect balance" between being patient for entries and actually pulling the trigger on decent setups.  All three of my trades that I missed, I had a good idea for the trade and I thought they would probably "work out" from there, but I just didn't take the entries because they didn't quite get to where I wanted for the ideal entries.  One way to "find the balance" for this "problem" is with position sizing, you can take a small position where you think it might "top out" or "hold support", and then you still have room to add if it still gets to your ideal entry points.  I want to try to work on this in the future, if I did this on some of the trades that I was looking for today, I could have made a lot more.   Still, can't complain about 2.5k in a day, it just could have been a lot more if I took even very small size (1-2k shares) on the trades I was looking for (CYTR 5 fail, ISNS 3.30 fail, ICLD 3 hold, other dips on ICLD that weren't "big enough" for me and it still kept going), even though they didn't quite get where I wanted for ideal entries.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



ICLD
Big move on Friday on big volume on some positive news, from 1.60 to 2.70 (closing at the highs), and gapped up to 3.20 with another PR out this morning.  Spiked to 3.44 at open, came back to 3.15 and held for 1-2 minutes then ramped up to 3.50's, I completely missed this move and would have gladly been shorting 3.50ish if I had shares to short (I had them on Friday but there were none today).  It pulled from 3.50 to 3.22 in one candle and I scaled in with 5000 shares (some orders were 2k shares today not 1k), 3.25 average, it bounced to 3.32 and I got about 3k/5k sold and missed fills on 2k shares and didn't want to take breakeven even though I thought it would go lower.  It washed out to 3.11 in a few candles and I was adding into that to give me around 10k shares 3.16 average.  It bounced to 3.22 and I sold about 8/10k from 3.17-3.21 (missed selling about 2k again).  It washed out to 3.04 and I added another 6k or so into that to give me about 8k 3.08 average and I sold it all 3.10-3.17 for a tiny profit.  An okay trade overall, I got the bottoms of each dip pretty well, I just didn't sell ALL into the bounce and had about 2k shares left that "dragged me down" each time, this trade would have been much better making sure to SELL ALL into the bounce (even if I have to take breakeven on the last part).  I was then looking for a dip to 2.90's to go long when it was testing 3 but it held at 3.01 and I never got in, then didn't get in on the HIGHER LOW at 3.05, or the other dips around 3.10-3.15 and eventually it broke 3.30 (which was a key area of resistance 3-5 times) convincingly and then consolidated between 3.40-3.55 for a while before breaking out convincingly past 3.55 (which was also a key area of resistance 3-5 times).  Off she went to 3.90 and then consolidated from 3.75-3.90 for a while, then 3.80-4 for a while and eventually broke 4 convincingly (after multiple attempts again) and went as high as 4.30.  Such a big missed opportunity on this stock today, I could have been patient with a long from 3.10, 3.20, 3.30, 3.40, 3.50, etc. or been scalping 5-20 cents with 2-10k shares many times.  I had missed the move from 3.40's to 3.80's which I thought was probably coming but I just never took because I am not very good at buying when a stock is just "grinding/basing" and I can't chase HOD breakouts either, so I completely miss huge moves like this.  When it was "hanging around" 3.75-3.90, I was looking for a "real" washout/dip, either 20+ cents in a few candles for a scalp or a dip to 3.60's for a grind back to 3.80's and possibly testing the highs again, this dip never came and it bounced 5-15 cents off 3.75 and 3.80 many times and I was still waiting for lower and never took a trade on it.  So frustrating watching such a huge move and completely missing it, and also I was long 8k shares at 3.08 average but you can't really say "shoulda woulda coulda" from that because my sells were decent AT THE TIME (from 3.10-3.17), and it went back to 3.01, I just never got back in because I was wanting 2.90's to re-enter.  

TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 3.14 3.19 19199 $0.05 $867.89 1.44%
  • Lessons:
  • When scalping washouts (especially below VWAP), make sure to SELL ALL into the bounce, can always hit the bid if it's "stalling" and you didn't get it all sold or got some partial fills, there is a good chance it will washout lower especially if below VWAP (it's much better to just "ditch" the rest for a breakevenish then look for re-entries again into another washout, I had decent entries in each washout but I missed selling 2k shares into each bounce and that "dragged down" my overall average on the whole trade)
  • Whole and half dollar marks often act as key "over/under" areas of support or resistance to use as a guide for an entry (3 dollar support, 3.50 "resistance/breakout" 4 "resistance/breakout")
  • Can always buy a "bigger runner" when it's holding higher lows ABOVE VWAP, with risk under the base/previous low, then be patient with it, sell into parabolic's or when it makes a "lower low" (3.40 base, 3.75 base, 3.80-3.90 base)
  • Key resistance areas have EXTREMELY POWERFUL moves once CONVINCINGLY broken, SHOULD ALREADY BE LONG on dip/base ANTICIPATING this move, it's not good to chase "the breakout" because you never know which one is going to be "the one", and it could "stuff" and slam back down on the "breakout", it often takes 3-5 attempts but the more time it consolidates and the more times it retests, the more likely it will break (3.30 break went to 3.50ish, 3.55 break went to 3.90ish, 4 break went to 4.30) 
  • Always pay attention to "float rotation" and be MORE LONG BIASED if the float keeps "rotating" and there's tons of volume (this traded about 10-11mil shares in the first hour and the float is 14mil, there was definitely lots of interest on this stock today)



CYTR
Gap up from 3.70 to 4.20 open on positive biotech data results, it "hung around" 4.10-4.30 for about 15 minutes then broke above VWAP (at 4.19 at 9:47), then a "slow and steady" grind ABOVE VWAP all the way to 4.80's, I didn't go long on dips but I knew there wasn't any reason to short it (SSR is also on).  It did somewhat of a "parabolic move" from 4.66 to 4.84 in 2-3 minutes.  I started shorting there with 2k shares 4.84 average, it held 4.82 and I knew it was probably going higher but I didn't want to cover for 1-2 cents and I was okay with adding more higher and going up to 5-10k shares potentially, somewhat using the whole number, 5 as a guide.  It popped to 4.95 and I added another 4k shares into that to give me 6k shares 4.88 average.  It washed out to 4.80 a few minutes later, and I was looking to cover some on a dip to 4.75ish.  It dipped to 4.75 and I got 2700/6000 filled (I was trying to cover around 3-4k so I missed some), it "SSR popped" to 4.84 and I readded at 4.84 and got 800/1000 filled.  I now had 4.1k shares 4.87 avg and I was looking for the 4.80 break and then ideally 4.75 break.  It came about 15 minutes later and I covered everything 4.68-4.70 because it seemed to be holding that area and I wanted to stay away from the "grind" since it was still above VWAP and could likely uptrend again.  My covers were perfect, basically dead bottom before it went to 4.90's and eventually touched 5.  I was looking for a 5+ parabolic to 5.08-5.20 to reshort but it was being "rejected by 5" and it looked "toppy" but I didn't take any trade on it because it didn't quite get where I wanted and it faded to 4.60's, then eventually about 4.40, a big missed opportunity because I didn't take any position (not even a small one).   
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 4.87 4.72 6800 $0.15 $1,048.00 3.16%
  • Lessons:
  • Don't be "afraid" to take a small starter short position if it looks like it's "topping out" and "rejecting HOD"/whole number (I was wanting 5+ to short but it topped at 5 and I missed a 30-60 cent fade)

CLNE
Nate has been short biased on this name the last few days (fairly overextended chart), today was finally the "payday" for him and he nailed it (I haven't had shares to short the last few days).  This "hung around" 10.10-10.50 for about an hour (previous day close was 10.27), then broke 10.10 and accelerated down to 9.50's and then eventually 9.16.  I was scaling in long into that second washout, 1k at 9.36 and 1k at 9.22 and it hit as low at 9.16 (and SSR also came on), there was a ton of volume (biggest volume bar by far on the day), and I didn't have the best entry as I didn't quite expect that much of a washout and I thought there might be some bad news, so I just quickly sold at 9.37 and 9.42 for a quick scalp and it "SSR popped" to 9.64 but you only would have gotten filled there if you had the order in.  It faded back to 9.16 and HELD a DOUBLE BOTTOM and made it's way back up to 9.75, this would have been a good place to get back in around 9.20 or so with risk to 9.15. 
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 9.29 9.40 2000 $0.11 $210.00 1.13%


PBTI
Big AH's mover on potential "Soros" stake (similar move to VLTC on "Ichan stake").  It's very thin, it only traded about 40k shares or so on the day and now has traded about 360k.  This went from 2.90's up to 4.50's, just insane, I could have easily bought at 3.20-3.60 but I didn't, at least I wasn't shorting though.  4.60 is resistance on the daily chart and I was shorting around there because this move was pretty ridiculous, I was just looking for a scalp and only small size.  I got 200/500 at 4.36 and it pulled back to 4.06, I missed covering there, then it went to 4.58 and I added 500 at 4.47 and 600/1000 at 4.58, to have 1300 shares 4.50 average, it pulled back to 4.25 right away with 4.25 seller on the ask but I was too slow to take it.  Then there was a seller at 4.29 and I took 600/1300 there.  It popped to 4.50 again momentarily and I readded 600 at 4.40, then immediately covered 600 at 4.25 (when there was a seller on the ask there again).  I had 700 left and I was looking to cover 3.92-4.02 but it seemed to be holding 4.10-4.15, so I covered the rest at 4.16 just to play it safe (and the spread was now 4.16 by 4.30 when I covered).  It went to about 3.98 then bounced back to 4.15, but I had already covered and I was done with it, it has now been trading around 3.90-4.10 (so far) in after hours.  I rarely trade afterhours, but I have seen big missed opportunity occasionally on things like LOOK, up to 2.70's then back to 1.80-2 and SYMX 2.80 then back to 1.80-2, I watched both of these crazy moves afterhours and never traded them, so I thought I'd try this ridiculous move today, the size was relatively small, I could have went much bigger if needed and I took quick profits, not waiting around to see if it goes to 3.70 or something, anything could happen.     
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 4.47 4.23 1900 $0.24 $459.00 5.40%






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