I'm glad to see that a few people that follow my blog made a bunch on it going long from 4-5's to 6-7's. I'm just super frustrated that I wasn't there with them and I was on the opposite side of it and losing huge. It's annoying just how "easy" to go long on these "big runners" and make a lot even if you have very little experience. Someone I talked to today, made 8k on a 5k account in his first week of trading. He talks to me sometimes and said he has learned a lot from my blog, I am somewhat happy for him and somewhat frustrated that a new trader can just come in and double his account on his second day of trading with no experience, that's just how "easy" it can be in this market. Just buy 5k shares at 5 dollars, don't watch every single tick, and hold until 7's, new traders and "chasers" bank, and anyone shorting loses (even if they are very experienced). This market is just insane and you've always got to respect the trend (using VWAP as a guide for that) and also paying attention to "float rotation". I have to be much more careful/avoid shorting on "DAY ONE", have to ALWAYS RESPECT VWAP AND THE OVERALL TREND, these are the stocks that can "take you out of the game" if you aren't careful.
I need to develop better habits, I want to be able to trade with an even bigger account eventually and I will want to have Centerpoint eventually. It seems like it would be very easy to just turn a "daytrade" into a "swing trade" with Centerpoint and it wouldn't be very hard to blow up a 30k account. For example, you short at 4.60, like I did, maybe not max size, add at 5, add at 5.50, add at 6, that's now about all you could add, thinking it's going to come down eventually, even if it takes a few days, then it goes to 7, 7.50, 7.70 and you could easily get bought in (especially if on margin) before it eventually fades back down in the next few days, you would eventually be "right" but you would get blown up before that happens, especially if it's a "multiday runner" like VLTC, GENE, LAKE, DGLY, etc. My buyin at 5.68 for -13.5k (would have been -9.5k at 5.45 where they initially tried to) really sucked but imagine if I I didn't get bought in (if I had a much bigger account) and was able to to hold until 7-7.70 and got bought in there instead, I could have lost an additional 20-30k.
Suretrader had no shares of ICLD yesterday, and it was an "easy" long of dips during the afternoon and lots of shorts lost on it, today PTBI was also an "easy" long off dips once it broke VWAP (4.60) at 10:50 or once it broke 4.80 and kept consolidating and basing higher and higher. Unfortunately, there were shares of PTBI to short today, and I was already sized in insanely huge and was extremely stubborn, not wanting to give back more than my 3.5k realized profits I already had, and ended up giving back about 17k, going from +3.5k to -13.5k.
This is exactly why I've been wiring out and keeping 4:1 limits on my account, to prevent such a huge loss like this, the problem is, I had a wire out request that hadn't gone through yet, and I also made another 2.5k yesterday, so I still had TONS of BP and I used almost all of it even though I knew it was way too much. That wire out has now been canceled before it went through, and I actually wired back in some, which I wanted to never have to do again, but I have wired out a lot recently so it's not the "end of the world", it's just frustrating to be going "backwards" and having a major setback like this.
I did the EXACT same thing twice, a 500/1000 partial fill (also happened to be at the exact same price, 4.42) when covering the LAST 1000 shares from a PROFITABLE SHORT, then I was READDING ON VWAP REJECT (4.55-4.60 area), it pulled back 5-10 cents, I didn't cover any, it perked back up again and BROKE VWAP (a good place to be stopping out/covering the rest), and I readded a lot more right above it, I got lucky the first time but the second time, it never "looked back" and I got smoked.
Because I still had 500 shares twice, the whole thing is considered "one trade". It was hard to figure out the exact number of shares and exact average with partial fills and so many different orders, I did my best estimation on the number of shares and the average, but the dollar amount on the entire trade is correct.
I talk about the dollar amounts a lot in the blog, but when I'm actually trading, I'm not really focused on it, I have the "realized/unrealized" part removed from my position box and I have the "realized/unrealized" part hidden on the other other display bar. I do occasionally glance at the "realized part" throughout the day when I'm not in any trades, or sometimes I pull it up when I'm "fighting a stock" like I was today and I kept watching it then, and it was changing 1.6k every 10 cents because I had way too much size.
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
PTBI
Big gap up from 2.86 to 4.50 open from "Soros" investment/stake/news afterhours yesterday. Super low float, 2.7m shares according to Yahoo Finance, and it traded 1-1.5m premarket and around 10m within the first hour (already about 4x "float rotation"). It spiked from 4.50 to 4.80 at the open and I shorted 1.5k shares at 4.73 and it came back to 4.53, I wished I did more size and I might have covered there for a scalp, I was trying to go for a "bigger move" and I wanted more size. It came back up and I tried to add another 1500 at 4.66 and I got only 300 filled. I tried to cover it all at 4.43 (and could just replace it again higher) and got 300 filled. It popped right back up and I was adding 4.55-4.66, lowering my avg to about 4.63 and about 4500 shares, I got 1k covered at 4.47, and it popped right back up again and I added another 3k from 4.66-4.69, now about 6500 short 4.65 avg. It washed out from there and I covered everything but 1k from 4.40-4.33 (covered 1.5k "bottomticked" at 4.33), I tried to "ditch" the last 1k on the ask at 4.42 and got 500/1000 filled. I had "nailed it" pretty good with only having 6.5k shares at the max, I was up 2k realized in 20 minutes but I still had 500 shares left and instead of just canceling the order and getting out I "tried to make it work". It popped back to 4.52 and I readded 2k at 4.51, it came back to 4.42 and filled the rest of my 500 but I still had 2k shares now. It came back to 4.52 and was now breaking through VWAP (which was at 4.55), and I was adding insane size (over 10k shares) from 4.53-4.63, this part of the trade was a complete "mental lapse" by me, not exactly sure what caused it, greed? overconfidence? wanting the "homerun"?. I don't remember the exact amount but I had around 14k shares 4.56 average, and it was "hanging around 4.54-4.65 and I was hoping for a snap back below VWAP and fade back to the lows (and hopefully lower) and I would be scaling out along the way for a pretty big profit mostly because of the size. It popped to 4.80ish and I was already in huge size with pretty much no room to add, I added 500 more at 4.78 which didn't really do much. It eventually faded back down to 4.50ish and I covered some from 4.56-4.47, then readded about 3k at 4.55 using VWAP REJECT as a guide on the bounce. It faded back to the lows, hitting as low as 4.37 (previous low was 4.33), and I was covering everything into that, 1k at 4.48 and the rest from 4.38-4.43, and I had covered everything but 1000 shares again. I was now up $3500 realized (pretty much my best day ever, best is 3.6k) with just 1000 shares left. I tried to TAKE THE ASK at 4.42 on the last 1k and I got a 500/1000 share partial fill AGAIN. I readded about 6k shares 4.55ish using VWAP reject as a guide again (I added about 2k then I was adding another 4k trying to "help it slam back down" and it did but only to 4.48 and I missed covering any), I was really hoping back a fade back to the lows and then potentially lower. It came down to 4.48 and my order was at 4.47 to cover 1k, I missed covering any. It had now held a HIGHER LOW at 4.48 and was retesting VWAP at 4.60. I then did the EXACT SAME thing as the first time, and I added a lot more from 4.60-4.65 JUST ABOVE VWAP when I should have been stopping on for a 5 cent loss on 6k shares (only 300 bucks) when it was reclaiming VWAP. I added a bit more from 4.71-4.84 and soon found myself with almost 16k shares short 4.63 average, and it had now went to 4.95 (which was a "breakout" past the previous HOD at 4.87). It consolidated 4.80-5 for about 15 minutes, I knew there was no reason to be short, but I was just hoping to get lucky again and get a 4.80 break, back down to 4.60-4.70 so I would maybe give back only some of my 3.5k realized instead of all of it. It "broke out" past 5 to 5.25, then pulled back to 5.05, and I still didn't cover any yet, I was looking for 4.85-4.95 to cover some and I thought that might have been "the top". It ramped back to 5.30 in a few candles (down 10.5k unrealized, up 3.5k realized = -7k on day), then slowly faded to 4.93 (down 5.5k unrealized up 3.5k realized = -2k on day), I wanted to cover some at 4.93 but I missed my fills, and Derrick went long at 4.94 and helped "keep it up". It went back to 5.17ish, then faded back to 5 and held a HIGHER LOW (than 4.93), I wanted the 5 break very badly, and it could have easily faded much lower, but it held and I missed covering any. I could easily taken the ask at 5.05-5.10 on all and been down 3-4k on the day, but I didn't, and it went straight up from 5.10 to 5.30 in one candle on the "bull flag breakout" (draw a line across the tops), which is a $3000 dollar difference and I was back to -10k unrealized or so and now it was breaking out past 5.30 previous HOD. It was slowly uptrending from there, trading around 5.30-5.50, Suretrader tried to buy me in on most of it at 5.45 but I canceled it (400 filled), then I was trying to cover some at 5.38-5.40 on the bid but didn't get filled, it popped past 5.50 and they tried to buy me in again at 5.57 and I canceled it again (500 filled), I got "kicked out of my account" and I was bought in on all but 1600 shares at about 5.68, down about 11-11.5k realized with another 1500-2000 unrealized (basically +3.5k to -13k). So insane, it was -2k on day at 4.95, -4k on day at 5.05-5.10, -7k on day at 5.30, -9.5k on day at 5.45 (which I would have been filled at if I didn't cancel their buyin attempt), then ended up being -13.5k getting bought in on most at 5.68 (me canceling their order cost me an extra 4k). It consoldated at a higher level again, 5.65-5.85, and I still didn't cover the last 1600 shares and I let them "ride" all the way up to 6, and got bought in on 1200 at 6.03 and then covered the last 400 at 5.87 on the dip, no positions now down 13.5k. I couldn't trade anymore because there was a limit on my account if I was down more than $5000 and I had also lost most of my account. I watched for a bit and took a break for a bit, then I wired in a bit more and made it so that I could trade again, and I emotionally traded it but ended up making back about 2k on it. I was expecting a 50 cent - a dollar wash at some point before the close, I nailed the top at 7.38 but only 1000 shares, and it pulled to 7.12, I was greedy and looking for the "huge wash" below 7, so I didn't cover at 7.12-7.20 for 30 cents, it held and starting grinding back up again and instead of taking 10-20 cents profit, I was adding more from 7.27-7.43 and I was now in 4k shares 7.35 average, it broke past 7.40 and went to 7.75. I didn't manage this trade very well, I was still expecting a huge washout before the close, but I had added too much in one spot and didn't have any more room to add (also I could have gotten bought in again and lost 1-2k before the washout even though my idea was right). It washed out from 7.68 to 7.17 in three candles, my first order was at 7.16 to cover some. It "hung around" 7.20-7.30 for a minute, then washed out to 6.60 in two candles. I was having issues with my orders "freezing" and nothing was going through, I had an order in at 7.06 and 6.91 and then weren't filled yet even though it was trading much lower, I was trying to cover it all and was trying to figure it all out, it was still showing I was short my full size when it was at 6.60-6.70 but I had a bunch of orders that were "frozen". It eventually "loaded" and I was now long 1035 shares 6.69 average, I was trying to sell at 6.70-6.80 but the orders still wouldn't "go through" right away, I was trying to get it to work on different devices and was trying to talk to Suretrader to get it to work. I still had some "frozen" orders but I ended up using INETL route to sell it at 6.63 for a small loss, I had wished I had also shorted but everything was still "messed up" and I still had "frozen" orders that could have randomly given me a position. It washed out to 5.80's, I missed about a dollar on my short but everything was still messed up with the "frozen orders" around that time and I was just trying to figure it all out. It held VWAP (5.85) and bounced back up to 6.30's from there, then faded back to the 5.90 by the close, but is now gapping up, trading between 6.15-6.45.
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Short | 4.60 | 4.94 | 40800 | -$0.33 | -$13,567.88 | -7.22% |
| Short | 7.35 | 6.83 | 4165 | $0.52 | $2,164.55 | 7.07% |
| Long | 6.69 | 6.63 | 1035 | -$0.06 | -$65.15 | -0.94% |
- Lessons:
- Can always buy a "bigger runner" when it's holding higher lows ABOVE VWAP, with risk under the base/previous low, then be patient with it, sell into parabolic's or when it makes a "lower low" (4.80 base, 4.95-5.05 base/higher lows, 5.70 base, 6.40 base, 6.70 base, etc.)
- Higher lows off of "LOD area" and VWAP reclaims are key things to be looking for to determine whether the stock is going to "fade the rest of the day" or "bounce back to the highs"
- Be careful using VWAP rejects for a short on very quick moving, high volume stocks, it will often only WORK ONCE, if it pulls back 5-10 cents and holds another higher low and retests VWAP, it will likely break, I NEED TO "PANIC OUT" on the ask if short on the SECOND TEST on a "quick moving stock", it will often spike 5-15 cents past it very quickly (I did this twice, it pulled back 5-10 cents, but then held and instead of stopping out on the retest, I kept adding more right above it)
- From "Nikko", pay EXTRA ATTENTION to VWAP around 11-11:30 AM, if you feel stubborn/upside down and the stock is ABOVE VWAP around this time and/or breaking out to new highs, YOU SHOULD NOT BE SHORT, don't be afraid to take the loss into the "offers", there's a very good chance it will continue going much higher throughout the day
- From "Michael Shadkin", past 11 AM top 25% of range, likely continues higher (be more long biased), past 11 AM bottom 25% of range, likely continues lower (be more short biased) (this isn't an "exact science" and I haven't paid very much attention to it, but I would like to pay more attention to it in the future to see if it "works", it definitely "worked" on PTBI and ICLD today)
- From "JohnWelshTrades", try to buy/short at the day's lows/highs for the best entries, I would say this only applies when the stock is trading within a "channel range", which often happens for the first few hours like PTBI today, 4.35-4.85 range (my first short was from near the top of the range and covered at the bottom of the range, my second short was in the middle of the range and luckily covered at the bottom of the range, my last short was in the middle of the range again and the stock broke out of it's channel around 11 AM and I was very stubborn with it because I was already sized in way too big)
- Going along with that last point, TRY TO AVOID ENTERING NEW TRADES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE "CHANNEL RANGE", or at least make sure to use less size since those are not "ideal" entries and still RESPECT HIGHER LOWS AND VWAP
- I need to control my overall position sizes and be careful not to add, add, add uncontrollably, have to try to make "smart" adds and keeping my overall position size under control, and knowing when to be sizing back down if I'm in too big or if it's not doing what I thought (I did the exact same thing twice, adding a lot all in one area up to 15k shares size which was way too much)
- Making sure to exit the entire position when my thesis for the trade no longer exists (especially if I tried to but got partial fills) and not trying to "make a trade work" with more adds and re-adds in places where I wouldn't normally trade that stock, CHANGE THE ORDER AND MAKE SURE TO GET OUT (I got 500/1000 share fills twice and then I was readding where I would have probably had not been shorting yet if I had no position, which lead to a terrible average "lucky trade" and a terrible average "got smoked" trade)
- Always pay attention to "float rotation" and be more careful/avoid shorting if the float keeps "rotating" and there's tons of volume (some sources show the float as 2.7m, others 6m, others 20m, either way, it was still "rotating" and there was a ton of volume with about 10m in the first hour and then 62m by the end of the day)
- Slow grind ABOVE VWAP = NO REASON TO BE SHORT (I've said this so many times, and I knew this, but I was just insanely stubborn because my size was so huge, every 10 cents = 1.6k, I didn't cover 4.80's, then I missed covering when it came back to 4.95-5.10 and it went to 5.30 again in one candle which was a HUGE difference and I was frustrated that it could have just been -2k on the day and now it was -7k again, then I let it turn into -13k)
- Always be careful shorting "Day 1" runners, they can go much further than you think
- Never be too biased, just because a stock is "up a lot" and you have shares to short, doesn't mean you should (I made money ONLY GOING LONG on ICLD and VLTC in the last week on their "above VWAP" uptrends because I didn't have shares to short, if I didn't have shares to short of PTBI today, I would have been doing the same and probably made a ton, but I was already short with huge size and extremely stubborn)
amazing info man
ReplyDeletei learned so much reading your lessons man, thank you so much
ReplyDelete