I was up a lot fairly early on and didn't do much for most of the day but then made a really stupid trade in the last 30 minutes and gave back 1.5k, I knew I had a terrible entry from the start, but I was already readding and "hoping for a spike back up through VWAP" and then later tried to "ditch it all" hitting the bid with a 3.27 limit order when it was 3.28-3.30, I got everything but 1.5k shares filled and helped "create" the last minute tank to 2.80's and instead of just changing that order and selling at 3.15-3.20, I was readding some more lower and lost a little bit more on all those adds as well and sold my whole position into afterhours from 2.87-2.99, I didn't want to hold overnight, so there was no freaking point in doing such a dumb trade like this, especially the readds into the last 5 minutes. On my initial entry, I was thinking 3.30-3.40 hold and EOD ramp back up to 3.50-3.60 at least, but I bought right as it washed out to 3.30 and I was down 200 from the "get go", I tried to "make it work" and made it worse, fighting a fading/tanking stock into the last 15-30 minutes which is one of my "rules" that I learned from when I did that on VLTC on April 15th. Don't go long just because you don't have shares to short and that's the only stock that's moving at the time, I would have likely been shorting that "premature EOD push" if I had shares but instead I was trying to do a stupid scalp long trade, I tried to "ditch it all" where it would have been about -500 on the trade but didn't put my limit order low enough (I should have put it like 3.24 instead of 3.27), and then cost myself another 1k in total from readds and holding that position still. VLTC on April 15th (http://jgramtrades.blogspot.ca/2015/04/trades-for-april-15-2015.html) and CERE today were very similar, a "premature EOD push" around 3:15-3:30 EST, then faded back to support area and VWAP, it failed there and then absolutely tanked into the close, I lost 1.7k on VLTC and 1.5k today on CERE, I've got to make sure not to do this again, I had followed this "rule" since then up until now, but I made the same mistake again today.
I'm going to try not to write quite as much on the explanations, try to look at the chart and the text below to see the actual trades if I don't explain it that well (try using two monitors if you have two, one for the chart and one for the text, that's how I do it when I am reviewing my posts), I don't want to always explain everything "tick by tick" every time.
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
CBLI
Another perfect "day 2" "gap up parabolic short" setup, just like ISR was. I shorted 1k at 4.08 into the first minute and it came back to 3.90's, but I didn't cover yet (I may have covered some/all if I had gotten more size initially), it popped back up to 4.13 and I added another 1k at 4.12. It washed out to 3.62 in two candles and I covered my short at 3.77 and 3.71 and went long at 3.62 (ideally all my covers/long would have been in the 3.60's). I sold my long for 11 cents because I wanted to mostly focus on the re-short, I tried to short at 3.83 and only got 479 shares filled, I didn't add anymore and it tanked down to 3.40 in a few candles. I covered my 479 shares at 3.58 for a small profit, then went long at 3.48 but that wasn't the best entry so I just "ditched it" for 6 cents profit. All "pops" were sold into the rest of the day and it ended up in a 3-3.30 channel most of the day (and gave back the whole gap and more as this setup usually does). 
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 4.10 | 3.74 | 2000 | $0.36 | $720.00 | 8.78% |
| Long | 3.62 | 3.73 | 1000 | $0.11 | $110.00 | 3.04% |
| Short | 3.83 | 3.58 | 479 | $0.25 | $119.75 | 6.53% |
| Long | 3.48 | 3.54 | 1000 | $0.06 | $60.00 | 1.72% |
GBSN
Saw this gapping up early on (on HOD list and in chat) because of some new price target news/upgraded to buy (as far as I understand that was the only news today). It opened at 3.80 from 2.92 previous day close, spiked up a bit to 4.11 and then faded to 3.60ish, held there and broke through VWAP (3.81ish) at 9:40, I wished I had chased it long there but I knew not to short it way too early into this push. I shorted 1k at 4.34 and it came back to 4.22, I maybe should have covered there for a quick scalp and waited for higher but I missed it, I was okay with adding more into 4.50 "over/under" for a quick pullback/washout. I ended up with 5k shares 4.46ish average (not the best, mostly because of that first entry lowering it) and it came back to 4.27, I tried to cover all of it but I got a partial fill at 4.30 when I tried to take the ask on the last part of it, I ended up with 1800 shares still left. I readded some from 4.40-4.44 "trying to make the rest work", it dipped from there back to 4.33 but I missed it and it had another "leg up", I added a bit more, too early into that, and ended up "surviving" from a poorly managed trade with a 4.53ish average when it faded back down from 4.80's and I covered everything from 4.46-4.29. It would have been much better covering ALL and possibly going long into that first dip (when it was holding above VWAP), then selling my long and/or shorting into the next push past HOD. Overall, I covered my short much too early considering it hit as low as 4.07 on that washout, but some of it was to size down when it might hold VWAP as support, I scalped it long on that washout but didn't have the best average so I just sold for a small profit, 4.13 to 4.16-4.18. I then was scaling in short again on pops, using VWAP as a guide, I didn't have the best overall average and some of the covers were just for a small profit/breakeven because it kept holding and not breaking down, but VWAP acted as the top and it faded to 3.80's from there. I had already covered most of it, but I had 3k shares left 4.24ish average that I covered at 4.06. Basically the whole trade was a 4.21-4.24 short average with up to 5k shares and covering mostly 4.15-4.06 with one cover at 4.25 to size down to "stay safe". I shorted later on into the 4.15 push with 2k shares 4.13 average, and covered it at 4.06-4.07 because it was "too thin"/"too low volume", I wanted a pop to 4.20 for an ideal entry but it faded back to 3.90's from there.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 4.51 | 4.35 | 9800 | $0.16 | $1,553.30 | 3.52% |
| Short | 4.22 | 4.12 | 11200 | $0.10 | $1,074.00 | 2.27% |
| Short | 4.13 | 4.07 | 2000 | $0.07 | $130.00 | 1.57% |
- Lessons:
- Try putting the limit order a few cents above the ask when trying to "ditch the rest" of your position to make sure to get it all filled (most times when I try to take the ask I only get partial fills and it messes up my whole trade and I often "try to make it work" with readds)
- Do not readd right away just because you missed covering some/wished you had covered it all, just look for the next dip to cover the rest into if it holds a higher low, when I readd right away, I then have even more size and if I miss the next dip, I'm down that much more if/when it spikes higher again (I've done this countless times and it almost never works, often it pops, pulls back a little bit and holds a HIGHER LOW and spikes back up from there, have to make sure to exit the WHOLE POSITION when you are trying to or into the next dip if you miss it)
DTCH
Big runner today from 85-90 cents up as high as 1.77 on some positive news. I shorted the first parabolic for a tiny scalp on only 1k shares, 1.66 to 1.57 (the top was 1.67) and I missed some other entries on this and that's all I did on it.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 1.66 | 1.57 | 1000 | $0.09 | $90.00 | 5.42% |
CERE
"Former runner" and low float (4.5m) with some positive news of a new patent today. I would have gladly been shorting some of those parabolic's but I didn't have shares to short, I find it much easier to short into insane spikes and then cover when it starts to grind/hold than trying to go long when it starts to grind/hold and "hoping" it keeps spiking. I was mostly busy with GBSN and I missed some entries, but I was watching it for the "flag/downtrend break" at 3.55 at 12:36, I wanted to buy there but I was too slow and it was 3.60's right away, it kept going up to 3.85 which was a nice "pop" to short, but because I don't have shares, I tried chasing it long, I sold everything but 25 shares (that didn't fill) for about a 2 cent profit, then I readded some lower to have more of a reason to put an order in for 25 shares, and those adds were basically breakeven and the whole trade was +$40 bucks. When it was acting "heavy" there, I somewhat expected that 3.50 snap, then when it bounced to 3.45-3.50, I "called" (to my friend in chat on PM) that if 3.45-3.50 fails again here, it will be 3-3.20 in a hurry, basic technical analysis with support/resistance and VWAP, I don't have shares to short so I couldn't actually execute this plan, but it's reassuring to at least have the right idea for next time on a similar setup. I had an order to go long 2k shares at 3.06 sitting in there earlier but then decided to cancel it, I guess I should have left that in, it came right back to 3.40-3.50. It had a "premature" EOD push to 3.72, then faded back to VWAP (3.36ish) from there, I was trying to "chase" an entry looking for a perk off of 3.35-3.40 level back to 3.50-3.60, I was trying to take the ask at 3.41 but it got taken out too quickly, I was sitting there for a few seconds and then a 10k seller came on the ask at 3.44, I wanted to cancel it but it was too late and I got filled, I could have taken a 100-200 dollar loss but I decided I would "try to make it work", I ended up with way too much size, about 6k shares, 3.31 average, it popped back to 3.30, I sold some for a small loss at 3.24ish, then I was trying to sell as the best ask at 3.32 at one point and at 3.29-3.30 at other times but I couldn't get filled and it couldn't even pop back up to 3.30-3.40 for me to have some "liquidity" to take breakevenish. It was still "stalling" at 3.30 and I CREATED this EOD panic to 2.80's, so frustrating, I put my limit order to 3.27 when it was 3.28-3.30 for the last 4.4k shares I had and I missed filling 1.5k shares. To exit the rest of my position, I have to CANCEL my order and then hit the bid because otherwise it will say "security is not shortable", by the time I had canceled my order it was already 3.15, I still should have just taken the loss there but I just suck at/hate "panic selling" on the bid, I like to wait for a bounce to sell into but this was not very smart in the last 5 minutes. I readded some more from 3.14-2.95 and sold it all afterhours from 2.87-2.99 from a 3.12 new average for a 1.5k loss on the whole trade, really stupid of me to be readding long into panic in the last 5 minutes, there's no time left for it to bounce, where is it going to go.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Long | 3.70 | 3.71 | 3125 | $0.01 | $39.25 | 0.34% |
| Long | 3.46 | 3.55 | 270 | $0.09 | $24.30 | 2.60% |
| Long | 3.20 | 3.04 | 9500 | -$0.16 | -$1,507.83 | -4.96% |
- Lessons:
- Do not chase longs into strength on a big "pop"/overextended move, I keep making a habit of doing this, on these chases I'm usually like 90% sure it might go a little bit higher but then I'm immediately on the sell side trying to take 5-10 cents because I know my entry is a complete chase, there's really no point, had I missed my sells I would have been down 20 cents right away (risk 20 cents to make 5 cents = stupid)
- DO NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE INTO THE LAST 15 MINUTES, ESPECIALLY ON A "JUNK STOCK" THAT'S UP A LOT (longs panic into close not wanting to hold overnight and shorts hammer into the close wanting to hold overnight/swing)
EOX
This had a reverse split last week and has been fading pretty much everyday, 10's to 6's, 7's to 6's and 7ish to 5ish on the last three days. It then gapped up afterhours yesterday from 5.21 close up to 9-9.50 range afterhours and premarket because they canceled they announcement of the public stock offering (and maybe some other news as well) which was part of the reason it faded from 7ish to 5ish in the first place so it sort of "canceled that out". But 5.20 to 9.50 on that? I sort of thought the move was quite overdone/up way too much for no reason, and obviously the "market" thought so too. I shorted into the bounce premarket, 1k shares at 8.72 and covered immediately at 8.59 for 13 cents for no real reason, just taking a quick scalp and I didn't really have the conviction to hold into the open, it hit 8.30-8.40 later in premarket and then went straight down from 8.40 to 6.70's in the first 15 minutes, had a small bounce attempt up to 7.10 but couldn't get back above VWAP (7.18) and then faded back to 6ish from there and "hung around" 5.80-6.20 range the rest of the day. A complete miss/"tons left on the table", it has SSR on and I wanted a pop at the open to short, but it just went straight down, this would have been a good trade to hold into the open if you have conviction on your trade idea (Nate and Eric nailed it), if it pops up a bit you can add if you are only in partial size and if it tanks, then you are already in and don't have any troubles getting filled (because of SSR) and "chasing it down" with not necessarily the best entries.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 8.72 | 8.59 | 1000 | $0.13 | $130.00 | 1.49% |
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