Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Trades for May 20, 2015

Well, today was a f**king "bloodbath" out there on PBMD for a lot of people, so many experienced traders lost a lot, I don't need to list names, most of you already know who.  I got destroyed as well but I had constantly been wiring out and not keeping that much in my account, so I "only" lost 11.5k on it, which could have been a lot more if I had more in my account.  This was exactly like PTBI day one, I couldn't stop out on all of it on my own until I got bought in, I knew I should have been out way earlier but I was being stupid/stubborn, trying to save 5-10 cents and ECN rebates, I was waiting at 2.56 to cover and it hit 2.56 and no fill, then I tried at 2.63 on the bid and I didn't get it and it spiked back to 2.80, then at 3.16, I got only 1k covered and then readded right away stupidly, then again, tried to cover at 3.72 on the bid in the dip and it hit 3.75 and bounced back to 4.40's from there, which is where I got bought in.

I was "riding" 300 shares that I had left (that didn't get bought in) for another dollar+, I was wanting to cover and go long on some of those dips (5ish and 5.25ish) but there was a "max loss limit" on my account, so I couldn't do any "new trades", so I just held and held for a while until I finally got my account usable again a few hours later.  I tried adding some short, and had a decent entry at first for 30-40 cents but only 200/1000 filled but I didn't cover it there because I didn't get my full fill on the short, then I readded 1k shares at a bad spot, I ended up breakevenish on the readds and I was slowly covering in "pieces" to focus on ISR, I just wanted to be done with this and I figured I could make more on ISR, so I just exited it all and focused on that and ended up making 3.4k on ISR, which made my day a lot more "bearable" at -8k.

-8k on the day sucks, but as you've seen from other people, it still could have been a lot worse, I'm thankful that I've still been wiring out all the time because that prevented it from being anything more than what it was, I've still got to be able to better recognize these charts and get myself out before I get bought in or never be shorting at all in the first place.  Had this not been "easy to borrow" today, I would have been scalping it long all day and probably making 5-15k instead of losing 10k.  Like I said before, I did well long on GENE on some of its "running days" from 5 to 10+ (because I never had shares on that run), and I also did decent on VLTC long (most of the time) when it went from 4's to 20+ because I never had shares on that run (I lost on it shorting the day it went 3's to 4's though because I had shares that day).  I just have to do way better at recognizing these and staying away from the short, try to "pretend" I don't have shares I guess, these are are stocks that KILL YOU when you are shorting and stubborn.

I made almost 7k total in the first two days this week, so I'm only down around 1k on the week and like +500 after commissions on the month.  Frustrating to only have 3 red days on the month but still be breakevenish, because those red days were so huge, -11.5k, -3k, and -8k.  "Live to fight another day" I guess, I'm just frustrated that I did the exact same thing as I did on PTBI two weeks ago (which means I didn't really learn from that loss because I let it happen again), this was even worse in terms of percentage loss (my worst ever by far, -45%, very ugly, it would have been even worse without the last adds/covers for breakevenish), I never even had that much size, I just held for pretty much a 2 dollar/share loss.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



PBMD
This was the big 200%+ runner yesterday from 52 cents to 1.70 on some positive news and up to 2.55 AH's (up 300%+ then) and then gapped down to as low as 1.35 early premarket on no new news (I guess I should have held my 2k shares short from 2.43 afterhours that I covered at 2.31 but oh well).  It came back to 2.35ish premarket and then faded to 1.98 at 9:27, but the "9:28 candle" popped it right back up again to 2.10+ and it spiked from 2.05ish up to 2.46 in the first 3 minutes of the open, I scaled in short way too much (especially since I can't trade very big since it's under 3 dollars) way too soon, I had 4k shares 2.37 avg and it pulled back to 2.31 and held there which was where VWAP was, it popped back up and I added another 1k which made my average 2.41, it came down to 2.36 which was just below VWAP but it bounced right back up on the next candle and reclaimed it.  The main reason why this first entry was so terrible was because premarket resistance was at 2.30-2.35 and I was shorting right at/after that without waiting to see if it would top there, and also 2.55 was the top yesterday AH's and it spiked through that as well, this was a "breakout chart", even if it was just 52 cents two days ago.  I was already in "full size" with no room to add and it was still "early", I could have easily stopped out 2.40-2.60 and just waited for better entries again higher.  It went to 2.90's then dipped to 2.60's and I missed covering there, I could have covered some/all there and re-shorted 2.90's again if I had done it better.  It eventually came back to 2.56 (VWAP was 2.64), I was sitting on the bid at 2.56 and didn't get any filled, and then was on bid again on the next dip at 2.63 and didn't get any filled and it popped right back to 2.80.  I almost stopped out 2.75-2.85 but didn't, then I was thinking I should stop out 2.95-3.05 and just reshort again with BIGGER SIZE since its now above 3 and I could use more size and make it all back (I was still stuck in the "short biased" thinking).  It went from 2.80 to 3.35 in 10 minutes which was a 2.5k difference, I was too slow/stubborn to change my order box to 5k shares and "panic out" 2.95-3.05, I was then waiting for a dip to cover and I got 1k covered at 3.16, I really wanted to cover more of it there but I was waiting for some on the bid at 3.15 and then some more orders lower at 3.06-3.11.  It came back up a bit and instead of just cutting it 3.20ish, I then readded 1k at 3.23 and 1k at 3.29.  It went higher and I was now down a little bit more, even on those adds.  I was still wanting a dip to 3.06-3.16 to cover it all but that never came, it dipped to 3.25ish three times but it kept "absorbing" and holding there and I knew it was probably going higher but once again, I was just too stubborn, then it popped to 3.60's in one candle then up to 4+, I was waiting for "dip" that whole time and it just kept going.  The dip finally came, from 4.08 to 3.75 in two candles and I had an order sitting at 3.72 for 3000 shares (of my 6k shares total) and it held at 3.75 and bounced from there, I was thinking/hoping that was "the top" but it spiked back through 4 again up to 4.40's in a few candles, I got bought in on 5700/6000 at 4.40ish (I still had 300 shares left).  It kept going higher up to 5.50ish, then back to 4.90's, I was going to "cover short and flip long" but I had a "max loss limit" so I couldn't trade, all I could do was exit my position, but I just held it anyways because it was only 300 shares.  It went to 6.50ish and my "cover short flip long" that I was wanting to do at 5ish would have been great, it then dipped to 5.20's from there and I was still trying to make my account usable so I could "cover short/flip long" to make more of a point of covering these 300 shares.  I was waiting to see if I should go long or short, I had a "good read" on it at the moment, shorting at the top of the "downtrend line"/channel when it was "stalling", I hit the bid at 5.81 and got 200/1000 filled, had I got it all filled I would have probably covered at 5.45-5.50 but since it was only 200 that got filled I just held it, then I added 1k at 5.70 and it popped 6+ again right after that, it came back down and consolidated and I covered it all 5.67-5.88 for a total loss of 11.5k (maybe -100 bucks from the readding I was trying to do).  I tried going long later at 5.79 but I just sold it for -5 cents when it still seemed weak.  I missed some other opportunities on it when I was busy with ISR or just "sitting on hands", I was okay with being -8k and not wanting to do anything in the last hour to make it worse.  It closed around 5.90 and tried to start "gapping up" to 6.20ish but then faded to close the AH session at 5.40ish. 
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 3.10 4.50 8200 -$1.40 -$11,458.00 -45.05%
Long 5.79 5.75 800 -$0.04 -$36.00 -0.78%
  • Lessons:
  • Pay attention to premarket resistance/top and do not be shorting at it/just after it, UNLESS it acts as CLEAR RESISTANCE, if it goes past it, it will likely go much higher (I had a terrible average the whole morning because I did not respect this)
  • Do not size in too much too quick, always "save bullets" for higher just in case (I should have paid more attention to how much size I was able to do since it's under 3 dollars, my max size was only about 5k shares, and I used all of it right away and didn't have any "bullets" left when it was 2.90's which would have been the place to be shorting)
  • ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO VWAP, it held "VWAP over/under" as support at 9:34 and 9:41, and most importantly at 10:40-10:53, pay attention to WHAT IT DOES AT VWAP, does it act as resistance (when it breaks below it) and keep fading, or does it reclaim right away and act as support and make a HIGHER LOW and continue on it's uptrend, RESPECT IT for covering shorts/going long
  • Have to not be "penny pinching" for a few cents and ECN rebates when trying to get out, just put order for ALL and take the ASK, it might cost you an extra 100 bucks but it would have saved me 5-10k in this case if I had just been aggressive and covered at 2.60 like I was trying to
  • Even if you missed where you were trying to cover and the trend changes, you have to just "eat the loss" when you know you are dead wrong and it's likely going higher (I was very close to just "eating the loss" at 2.80's but I was still too stubborn and frustrated that it was just only -1k at 2.60 now it was -2k, then it spiked from there and the rest is history)
  • Never be too biased, and never under-estimate how far a stock can go, I was too biased all morning but then when I was finally trying to take the loss in the 3's, I was still thinking, "cover all and reshort with even more size and make it all back", that's why I readded, but this thinking was dead wrong, I should have been thinking, "cover all and go long" instead (it's hard to do, but doing that on PBMD and PTBI would have worked out well and I probably would have made it all back or more) 
  • Try to recognize these "big runners" early on and try to "pretend" you don't have shares to short/avoid shorting, sure you can make some by shorting, but you are still fighting the "big picture trend" and you will most likely be too early on a lot of the entries (the days that these run and I don't have shares to short, I usually make money going long, the days that these run and I have shares to short, I am usually insanely stubborn and holding onto huge losses until I get bought in)



ISR
This gapped up from 1.61 to 2.40 early premarket from a positive "data trial results" press release, it's somewhat of a "former runner" last spring but the float is 45m and it trades fairly "thick"/slow usually (but it traded a lot of volume today, 50m, that's why it could have such big moves/candles).  It traded in a 2.40ish-1.85ish range for the first four hours of the day, then broke that "premarket high" at 13:30 and went almost straight up to 2.90's, consolidated there for a bit, then straight up to 3.30.  I scaled in a short a bit too early into that spike, I had 5k shares 3.16ish average, it came back to 3.06 in one candle and I had covered some of it (not sure how much, probably about half), then I was readding a bit too early into the next pop and had a 3.21ish average and covered only 1k at 3.13, then was readding again on the next pop and had a 3.22ish average and pretty big size now, around 7k shares, I covered about 5k into the washout from 3.08-2.99, then was readding pretty much all of that again 3.12-3.19, lowering my average to 3.18ish but now I had 7.6k shares, it washed out again and I covered most of it from 3.02-2.92, once again, I missed covering about 2k shares.  I readded again on the pop again at 3.08ish, but it seemed to be holding a HIGHER LOW this time at 3, I tried to cover all of it but only got about half filled, then readded more again 3.15ish and it was "holding" at 3.11 by 3.12 (my current average was 3.12), and I TOOK THE ASK (proud of myself) to cover about half of it to size down, then I readded a lot from 3.18-3.25, to have huge size this time, almost 10k shares 3.18 average and it washed out again and I covered it somewhat early on the way down from 3.14-2.98.  I finally was completely out and then I didn't trade it the last 45 minutes, I was thinking that it might possibly gap up/run into the close, I didn't want to be fighting it short into the close, but I didn't go long either unfortunately.  My idea was right, it ended up hitting as high as 3.74 after hours but then it came back to 3.40's before AH ended (still up from 3.18 close though).  Once again, I'm not 100% sure on the exact entry and exit and number of shares because of partial fills and so many entries and exits, but the total "PnL" that I made is exact.  Also, I decided to post the "big picture chart" with all of premarket and afterhours and then a more "zoomed in" chart of my actual trades.   
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 3.19 3.05 24000 $0.14 $3,406.50 4.45%
  • Lessons:
  • Try to cover ALL into the washout and then replace ALL again on the pop until it starts to make a higher low/uptrend again (I did decent with sizing in and out on this but it still could have been much better covering all and then reshorting all, rather than missing some and readding near my average and then covering near the same spot that I could have already covered, I could have done this better 3-5 times into the washouts/dips and probably made a lot more overall)
  • Try not to add/readd too early, trying to "make it work", still always try to wait for IDEAL ENTRIES/ADDS (I was a little bit early on some of my readds and I was down a little bit unrealized a few times, some of the readds could have been better)     

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