Trades for May 21, 2015

Such an awesome day, I almost doubled my best day ever, and I just made everything back from yesterday in one day.  I nailed mostly everything without any big unrealized losses, I had a few trades on AVEO where I was down 5-15 cents and I made about that and was breakeven on one, but nothing too crazy, nothing like down 3k unrealized to make 1k like I sometimes do.  I also made one trade on VLTC later in the day, which was my biggest unrealized loss, I was down around $1500 and ended up making $1100, but had I held longer I could have made $3000-5000 on it, this was my riskiest/worst trade of the day, but my thinking behind it was that it would fade right back to where it came from once the volume died out again (just like it did a few weeks ago when I was long and lost on it), I covered way too early just because I was trying to make sure to size down since I only got partial exits into dips earlier and I wasn't that comfortable with that much size.

I left a ton "on the table" today, it could have been a 20k+ day had I been more patient on my shorts on ISR (a dollar on 7k shares), AVEO (60-70 cents on 7k shares and 40-50 cents on 5.4k shares) and VLTC (60-70 cents on 7k shares), and also some more on some other trades on them (but some of the longs I would have been down if I didn't sell), it's alright though, I still did pretty good overall on them.  I'm not complaining about a +8k day, I should just try to be more patient sometimes with at least some of the position, or not be afraid to get back in when I recognize a good pattern to short like I saw twice on AVEO (the "stuff candle" at 11:42 and the VWAP retest and re-break about 5 minutes later), I "called" what it would do to my friend in chat but I didn't take the trade on it and it faded 40-50 cents from there, and also the bounce at 14:11, I wasn't aggressive enough getting back in, I was waiting at 2.78 and then tried to get in at 2.75 and missed both and then didn't take it and it had it's slow fade down to 2.20's from there.

I made quite a few trades and a lot of tickets (most orders/arrows on chart are 1k shares, sometimes 2k), it was sort of "overtrading" but I feel its good to push sometimes when you are confident and seeing things well and there's "golden opportunities", it's better to push with the "house's money" than to be pushing when you are down on the day and trying to make money back.

I decided I would put trend-lines on the charts on the blog occasionally, if that's what I was looking at in real-time and if it makes sense to, those trend-lines on AVEO today is what I had drawn on there in real time and they helped me plan out my trades.  I also decided I would try putting the daily charts on as well so that you can see the "bigger picture", I will do this from now (unless I later decide that it takes too much time or is not helpful).

FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.

ISR

I missed shorting this premarket and then I scalped it long for 6 cents, I sold a little bit early but I didn't want to hold into the open.  I wanted a parabolic right out of the gate to short, it washed out in the first minute but it had VERY LOW VOLUME for the first 3 minutes, I should have went long anticipating a spike but I missed some entries and wasn't 100% sure if it would spike or washout, but I figured it was sort of a "no trade" until some volume came in and took it convincingly one way or the other.  On the fourth candle it went from 3.45 up to 3.65 on huge volume, and I was scaling in short 1k shares at a time from 3.64-3.78 (top was 3.79), to have 8k shares 3.71 average (I was thinking 10k max), I covered 1k at 3.66 to size down a tiny bit with the plan to possibly readd it again, it bounced back to 3.72 and then washed out to 3.31 in three candles and I covered super early into that from 3.58-3.43 for a $1400 dollar trade.  It "hung around" 3.35-3.48 but I was looking for 3.50-3.55 to reshort but it never got there, it washed out lower and I scaled in long with a 3.20 avg, I sold some at 3.27, then readded more 3.18-3.12, to now have 7k shares 3.17 average, I scaled out 3.25-3.32 for a decent profit.  Then I shorted 2k shares at 3.34 and another 2k shares at 3.35 and was trying to get another 1-2k on the ask at 3.36 but that was the "top" and I didn't get any filled and it slammed back down to the lows from there.  I covered 1k 3.18, 1k 3.08, 1k 3.06, 1k 3.09, thinking it would bounce from there and I would "recycle" my covers again higher with a new trade.  I was smart to have covered all of that and it bounced back to 3.20-3.24 and I scaled in again with 7k shares 3.21 average and it was just "hanging around" 3.16-3.23, I didn't really like how slow it was and I was thinking it might just "hang around" this area and not go anywhere too much, and I didn't want to give back a lot of my profits if this spiked higher.  I slowly covered from 3.19-3.05 for a very small profit, I should have been a bit more patient here and waited for "LOD test" and then possibly covered some around 3 and then been reshorting when it was failing to go back green on the day.  It "hung around" 3.01-3.13 for about 20 minutes then broke below 3 and faded to 2.70's, "hung around" there for a bit, then faded down to 2.20's and eventually as low as 2.07.  I missed about a dollar a share on 7k shares on my last trade on this, but right after I covered, I was then focused on AVEO and made quite a bit there, and then I looked back at this (I watch 6 stocks at once but I'm usually pretty focused on just one when I'm in it) and saw that it was 2.70's and never got back in.  It bounced from 2.07 to 2.40ish but then faded back to close at the lows around 2, and hit as low as 1.90 AH's, such an insane fade, there's so much to be made with more patience on these.     

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Long

3.35

3.41

3100

$0.06

$181.00

1.74%

Short

3.71

3.54

8000

$0.18

$1,410.00

4.75%

Long

3.18

3.28

8200

$0.10

$820.00

3.14%

Short

3.35

3.10

4000

$0.24

$970.00

7.25%

Short

3.21

3.11

7000

$0.10

$680.00

3.03%

• Lessons:
• Try to be more patient on the first few minutes "parabolic and washout" on a "Day 2" gap up, often it can give back the entire move and more (this was similar to BIOC on April 21st, except this faded even more) (I nailed the entry but then covered 10-20 cents too early into the washout and then never got back in right away and missed even more)
• Can always reshort pops/lower highs with a new trade using the "house's money" for more fading (better to take a small position rather than waiting for a perfect entry like I was waiting for at 3.53 and then I completely missed another 20-30 cents)
• Try to be more patient on a "slow fader" that's doing exactly what you want, wait for "LOD tests" and try to stay in as long it continues to act "weak" and keep making "lower highs", also failing to go back green on the day is another thing that should give you even more confidence in your short position (it's okay to cover into dips and "recycle/replace" those covers again higher, like I did pretty well, but I just should have been more patient on the last part of it, I really had no reason to cover other than that it felt "too slow")

AVEO

Another big biotech runner with "positive trial data results" today, this gapped up from 1.60 to open at 1.81 and it went almost straight up to 2.60's, then up to 2.90's, then eventually up to 3.50, the float isn't that low (about 50m), but it had huge volume today (about 95m).  I was mostly busy with ISR and didn't even have this stock up on my screen until it was 3.30+.  I put an order in to short 2k shares at 3.54 but 3.50 was the exact top and I missed it and it washed out to 3.18 in 3 candles, I tried to scalp it long right at 3.18 but didn't get that.  I had a really good "feel" for it I guess and that just seemed like "the top" and I was scaling in short with size on the bounce looking for a lower high and another big washout.  I ended up with 7k shares 3.34 average, I almost sized down a tiny bit at 3.22-3.24 a few times but I was looking for more than that.  It "hung around" 3.21-3.33 a bit longer than I wanted (5-7 minutes) but then washed out to 3.05 in one candle, I covered it all much too early into that from 3.18-3.06, it "stalled" for two candles at 3.07-3.15 then washed out as low as 2.83 in another three candles (missed 20-30 cents).  I had covered my short way too early but I was now somewhat more long biased at this point, using VWAP as a guide, I didn't have the best average, but I was long with 4500 shares 2.96 average and it popped back up to 3.08.  I sold everything but 750 shares into that from 3.02-3.06, then readded another 3k on the dip to have 3750 shares 2.94 new average, it popped back up to 3.10 and I sold 2750/3750 from 3.02-3.09 and then "ditched" the last 1k at 3.  I wasn't really sure if it was a good long or a short short now, it held VWAP again and tried to "perk" up to 3.08 at 11:42 but it was "stuffed" (I circled that on the chart) and that was the sign it wasn't going any higher and then it broke below VWAP convincingly and then faded to 2.50 from there (I saw this "unfolding" and I expected that to happen but I didn't get back in short).  I then scaled in long with not the best average (2.62ish) and was down $500+ unrealized to come out breakeven, this was a bad trade and I was way too early and didn't manage it very well, but at least I made sure to sell it all into that 2.65 push, too bad I didn't also "flip short".  It washed out lower from there to 2.37, then it "hung around" 2.40-2.60 and was holding a "higher low" at 2.45ish and the then started uptrending again from there all the way to 2.80's.  I was thinking it would be a good short around there using VWAP reject/"over/under" as a guide (VWAP was 2.83), I started in with 2k shares at 2.81 and slowly added a little bit more from 2.84-2.90, I probably should have sized down/covered some for 1-5 cents profit because it was still holding and it was breaking above VWAP convincingly.  I was still thinking it would pullback from here but I should have managed it a little bit better and possibly had a bit better average, it hit as high as 2.94 so I guess I was only down 9 cents at the most which isn't too bad, I had 5.4k shares 2.85 average.  It washed out to 2.58 in three candles and I covered a bit too early into that from 2.78-2.65 (I had some orders in and my platform is sometimes "laggy"/slow because my computer isn't that great).  It came all the way back to 2.78 and I was waiting on the ask with 2k shares at 2.78 but I didn't get filled, then I tried to hit the bid with 2k shares at 2.75 but I missed it and then I canceled it.  It washed out to 2.55 from there and then "hung around" 2.55-2.70 for a while before washing out further from there down to 2.40's, I scalped it long for 5 cents which wasn't really the best idea, it was in a downtrend so I didn't really expect to get much, I should have either been shorting pops or "flipping short" after my sells.  It faded to 2.17 then bounced back to 2.40 again, I missed that action on those candles either long or short and I didn't trade it the rest of the day. 

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

3.34

3.12

7000

$0.22

$1,540.00

6.59%

Long 2.95 3.04 7500 $0.09 $683.50 3.09%

Long

2.62

2.64

5500

$0.02

$92.50

0.64%

Short

2.85

2.70

5400

$0.14

$775.80

5.05%

Long

2.44

2.49

4100

$0.05

$195.45

1.95%

• Lessons:
• Try to be more patient with a "winner" once it starts doing exactly what you wanted, and never be afraid to reshort pops/lower highs with a new trade using the "house's money" for more fading
• Pay attention to "stuff candles" and "failed breakouts", they are often good places to be shorting (like the one I circled on the chart at 11:42, that was the signal that it wasn't going to go any higher and then it faded about 50 cents from there) 
• Always pay attention to VWAP, a convincing break after failing to "breakout" (like it did at 11:46 and 14:01) is a sign to be shorting (and definitely not long anymore) and then shorting all pops/lower highs for continued fading

VLTC

This wasn't the best trading, I was quite a bit too early on this one initially, apparently "Ichan" increased his stake, but I was still thinking it was a short into the parabolic and would fade all the way back once the volume died off.  I had 3.7k shares 8.36ish average and it came back to 8.25 and I only covered 1k there at 8.26, then I was readding more, mostly too early to end up with 7000 shares 8.46ish average, I covered 1k at 8.43 (I was trying to cover more but missed some of it), it popped back up to 8.65ish and I readded that cover at 8.62, it washed out from there and I covered it all pretty early from 8.40-8.23, mostly because I was trying to make sure to size down since I only got partial exits on dips earlier and I wasn't that comfortable with that much size.  It hit as low as 8 and I missed about 20-30 cents, it bounced back up to 8.20-8.40 but I didn't reshort it and it slowly faded back to red on the day to 7.65-7.80.     

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

8.46

8.34

9000

$0.12

$1,116.00

1.47%

• Lessons:
• Be careful/avoid "add, add, adding" too much and being in so big on a "thin stock" ("one order" could have spiked this above 9 and I would have been down a lot)
• Try to be more patient with a "winner" once it starts doing exactly what you wanted, and never be afraid to reshort pops/lower highs with a new trade using the "house's money" for more fading