It's much more stressful and it doesn't "feel as good" (I feel like I'm setting a "bad example" and that I just "got lucky") when I have big "PnL days" from getting "bailed out" of a bunch of big unrealized losses. I need to always be more careful and always remember that all it takes is ONE BAD TRADE and you can lose days, weeks, or months of progress, as I have experienced last week when I lost 11.5k on PTBI (which was 2-3 weeks worth of progress gone just like that). I haven't really been trading any "safer" since then and I've been trading the same size as before or even bigger. I am going to be continuously wiring out still and not letting my account get "too big", I still am not very good at controlling my position sizes ON MY OWN so I will continue to do this as a "temporary solution" to my "problem", while still trying to work on my own self-control and discipline with my position sizes. I have to always be SIZING BACK DOWN accordingly if the stock isn't doing what I want or if I'm in too big, using size is fine but I have to be smart about it, and I have to GRADUALLY increase size if that's what I want to do, there is no point sizing up OUT OF MY COMFORT LEVEL if it means I will be trading more emotionally and unable to take a small loss and often cutting winners short anyways. What's better, use size for 5 cents or use less size for 20 cents and still make the same amount? (The second is better and then you can gradually increase size and eventually be able to make a lot more and be a "better trader" than the first method).
My new "absolute max size" that I want to try to have the self-control/discipline to stay under, is 10k shares. It's best to use the amount of size RELATIVE to the SETUP, but 10k shares is my ABSOLUTE MAX SIZE that I want to try to respect from now on, probably for the rest of the month at least.
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
GEVO
Big gap up from 4.68 up to 5.40-5.60 range afterhours and premarket on earnings that were "bad", but I guess the market reacted differently to it. It popped to 5.68 at the open but it felt like it was "stuffing" there and it then tanked down to 5.23 in the first two minutes. I scalped it long from 5.12 to 5.23 on the second washout, just for a quick scalp with only 1k shares, that was all I did on it today (I still don't have shares to short of this stock). It announced an "offering of public stock" afterhours and went down to 3.80-4 range from closing at 4.45. All the shorts were "right" and all the idiotic buyers chasing this up from 4.60's yesterday to 5.50+ on BAD EARNINGS on a "junk stock" were wrong.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
Long | 5.12 | 5.23 | 1000 | $0.11 | $110.00 | 2.15% |
VGGL
I still had shares to short of this today, but I missed to 3.30ish to 3ish short on the morning push and washout (SSR is also on today keep in mind). I bought 2k shares at 2.98 for a scalp (wished I was already short and covering there) and sold half at 3.07, then tried to add 2k more at 3.05 when it was "holding" but only got 100 filled, then sold it all at 3.07 for some reason, just for a small scalp. It went to 3.17 then came back to 3ish and held a HIGHER LOW at 3.03 then spiked up from there with some "emotional candles" but then continually basing at higher and higher levels and ABOVE VWAP. I scalped it short twice with partial fills, but I was wanting 3.50+ to "size in" short. It was testing 3.40ish for the third time and instead of being patient with some of my "fishing orders" that were waiting at 3.47+, I was afraid I might "miss the move" again if it topped at 3.40-3.45 again and washed out (have to be shorting into upticks because of SSR). I sized in way too much way too quick, I had around 8k shares 3.46 average and it pulled back to 3.44, I tried to cover some to size down a bit, on the bid, but I only got 400 filled, then it popped right back up again. I added a bit more again and it came back to 3.46-3.55 range and I was short with huge size (11.6k shares) with a 3.50ish average. I was trying to cover some at 3.46-3.48 on the bid on some of those dips but I couldn't get filled and I missed covering any, I should have been MAKING SURE TO SIZE DOWN, even if I had to take the ask. I was too greedy looking for more, even though I was in way too big and not the best average. It continued to hold 3.50ish then "SSR popped" back up again to the highs, I probably should have "panic covered" at 3.60 and then reshorted higher again if it was setting up again, but I was too stubborn. I added another 1k at 3.63 and 1k at 3.66, now having 13.6k shares 3.52 average (WAY TOO MUCH size, that's exactly how I got smoked on PTBI, way too much size and being stubborn, I think I need to stay under 10k shares max and be a lot smarter with my sizing in and SIZING BACK DOWN). Luckily, it came back to 3.50ish, I covered some there, then it went to 3.42 and I half covered about half of it there (missed covering some when I was trying to take the ask, it often pops back up very quickly with SSR on). It was back to 3.54 in two candles and I readded 4k shares into that then covered it all 3.44-3.47, it seemed to still be holding and I wanted to stay away from the grind/basing with SSR and above VWAP. It went back up to 3.62 and I got a "top tick short" with 2k shares at 3.62, I covered it all at 3.55 so I could focus on GIGA, but it ended up washing out to 3.40ish again.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 2.98 | 3.07 | 2100 | $0.09 | $182.00 | 2.91% |
Short | 3.31 | 3.21 | 250 | $0.10 | $25.00 | 3.02% |
Short | 3.35 | 3.26 | 1235 | $0.09 | $106.45 | 2.58% |
Short | 3.52 | 3.46 | 18000 | $0.05 | $984.00 | 1.56% |
Short | 3.62 | 3.55 | 2000 | $0.07 | $140.00 | 1.93% |
- Lessons:
- Be careful of "add, add, adding" too much (especially all in one spot), always try to make "smart add's" and MAKE SURE TO SIZE BACK DOWN into dips, take a small profit/small loss, don't get too greedy when you know your average isn't very good and you have too much size (10k shares absolute max is my new "rule" that I want to try to respect)
- Slow grind/basing ABOVE VWAP = No reason to short/be short, the only shorts on these types of stocks are parabolic's for scalps or wait until it "breaks trend" (or looks like it will break trend) like it did at 13:14, but ALWAYS be covering some/all when it's still grinding/basing ABOVE VWAP
- Do not short right at the "breakout" level (3.40 was resistance on two previous attempts and it was now breaking through that and I shorted way too much way too soon right around that area), have to wait for more extension past that level and waiting patiently for it to set up (parabolic, or a lower high, or an "uptrend break")
OREX
This faded from 6.90 to 5.90 yesterday during market hours on some bad news yesterday and then more bad news was released afterhours and it hit as low as 5.05, it bounced from there and came back to open at 5.40, then "parabolic'd" to 5.69, then up to 5.75, SSR was on so it can spike or washout that much quicker. I wanted to start shorting at 5.79 (Accept Shrt 1000 OREX 5.79 --ARCA--09:35:04--) and I missed it when it topped at 5.75 and washed out to 5.46 in one candle. I scalped it long for 10 cents from 5.36 to 5.46, and thought about shorting at 5.50ish using "VWAP reject" as a guide, but I didn't, and it went to 5.05ish and then eventually 4.85ish. A nice "slow and steady" fade similar to what it did yesterday.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 5.36 | 5.46 | 1000 | $0.10 | $100.00 | 1.87% |
FCSC
Big gap up from 3.56 previous close to 4.15 open on positive news, it normally trades less than 100,000 shares per day and today it traded 3.4m, the float is 25m apparently, but it still traded fairly "thin" today. I wanted to short the parabolic in the 4.80's, I had these orders waiting (Accept Shrt 1000 FCSC 4.83 --ARCA--09:53:03--, Accept Shrt 1000 FCSC 4.84 --ARCA--09:52:56--), and I missed the top by a cent. I didn't get in on the "lower high" and then didn't "chase it" at 4.50ish because I had still wanted my 4.80's. Then, I went long for a scalp at 4.33 (wished I was covering there from a short), it bounced to 4.43, and instead of taking my 10 cent scalp, I got "faked out" by some "big bid props" at 4.40 and decided to add 2k shares at 4.42 which was where I should have been selling considering it was still under VWAP and downtrending. I added some more around 4.35-4.41 "trying to make it work" and it washed out to 4.20's, I added a bit more still "trying to make it work". I was in too big and with a terrible average, I had 8200 shares 4.34 average and it "perked" to 4.30-4.33 a few times but it was still sort of "thin" and I missed selling and it would slam back down. Eventually, it came back up a bit, and I scaled out 4.28-4.37 for a small loss luckily, it could have easily been a $500+ loss or even more if 4.20 broke.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 4.34 | 4.33 | 8200 | -$0.01 | -$66.75 | -0.19% |
- Lessons:
- Even if you "just missed" your "perfect entry orders", you can still get in when it's still "setting up" (the LOWER HIGH CONFIRMED my short idea but I didn't take the trade because I had wanted to be in at 4.83-4.84 where I was trying for)
- Do not add to "too much size" for midday grind/lull trading, one candle can change everything and there's no reason to be in that big when it's just "hanging around"
- Try not to be "faked out" by big buyers or big sellers, sometimes they are fake or get "smacked", other times they are real and do create a "pop/drop", but you've always got to pay attention to where the stock is on the chart (if it's a big buyer at the bottom of the washout, maybe an okay place to go long, but a big buyer right after a 10 cent bounce on a downtrending chart, probably not the best entry and this buyer turned out to be fake anyways and I had just "top ticked" my 2k share buy order into the bounce when I should have just been selling my good entry from earlier)
ICLD
This stock is still "in play" everyday, it had earnings today, which were "bad" and it tanked from 4.30 to 3.70 at 9 AM premarket, then traded around 3.80-4.10 the rest of premarket. Unfortunately, I missed this whole "R/G squeeze" from 3.70's to 4.60's. It opened at 3.94 and went to 3.78 and held premarket support, then spiked back up to 4.10, came back to 3.91 and held a higher low, then "R/G" squeezed" all the way up to 4.50's, then dipped to 4.30 and back up to 4.60's, the resistance on daily chart is 4.73, so this would be a good place to be shorting with risk to that level if you have shares to short (I didn't). The key to going long on these, is to go long when they still have "momentum" (above VWAP/uptrending). I went long at 3.97 at the bottom of the washout thinking it would bounce some off of the whole number 4, and I sold for a small profit into the bounce.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Long | 3.97 | 4.07 | 2000 | $0.10 | $196.00 | 2.47% |
- Lessons:
- Higher lows and VWAP acting as support on a "crowded short" can make for VERY POWERFUL "R/G moves", try to get long "early enough" with a set risk (on LOD or VWAP) and then you can be selling when other people are chasing it up higher or shorts are "panic covering"
- Always pay attention to key levels on the daily chart, resistance on the daily chart is a great place to be selling if long or shorting if you have shares (4.73 was daily chart resistance and it topped out at 4.64 and faded all the way back to 3.90-4 giving back pretty much the whole move)
GIGA
Big "former runner", low float (3m), had some positive news today (a 3 million dollar contract), released midday at 1:35 EST. This has been trading less than 100,000 shares most days over the past few months (and traded only 10,000 shares yesterday and about that much today before the news). It spiked from 1.70's to 2's and then kept holding VWAP "over/under" as support and then basing at a higher level continuously. I knew there wasn't much reason to short this until a more parabolic move, but I didn't go long either. It went from 2.40 to 2.80 in about 10 minutes and I thought that was the parabolic move to be shorting into and likely "the top", I scaled in with 3k shares 2.75 average and it pulled back to 2.60, I covered 1k at 2.63 and was looking for 2.50's to cover more but I did try to get filled on some more on the bid at 2.61-2.63 (because it seemed to be holding 2.60) but I didn't get filled. A big buyer (about 30k shares) came in at 2.65 and I tried to take the ask at 2.67 but I missed it, for some reason I thought this still might be "the top" and that big buyer was either fake or would get hit, and I readded 1k more at 2.70 then 1k at 2.72, which were absolutely terrible, it LOWERED my average and then it spiked to 3.89 in one candle. I added a tiny bit more, only 700 more shares, I had a 2.76ish average and 4.7k shares (down $500-800 unrealized at the highs), and it came back to 2.73 and all I got covered was 600 shares, I had an order sitting at 2.73 but no one wanted to "hit me", I was too slow to take the ask and it spiked right back up again and I was "running out of time" (going into the close and I didn't want to hold overnight). Thankfully it was still "getting stuffed" on the 3 push, and I readded 500 shares at 2.93 and it washed out to 2.77 within a few minutes. Once again, I tried to cover there but got a partial fill of 200 shares and it perked back up again. I covered 1k at 2.81 and then got "stuck" holding 3.5k shares short into afterhours, I didn't want to hold overnight and I was just looking for a small gap down during afterhours (looking at the history on the daily chart of "one day run" then gap down, which it has done many times). I covered it all afterhours from 2.82-2.75 to somehow be breakevenish on the whole trade. This trade was very frustrating, I turned a $300-450 dollar trade into a $500-1000 unrealized loss from MISSING COVERS and then READDING in bad spots "trying to make it work", but thankfully I ended up breakevenish on it, it could have been a lot worse.
Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
Short | 2.76 | 2.76 | 6200 | $0.00 | $23.56 | 0.14% |
- Lessons:
- When trying to quickly "take the ask" to cover when it looks like it will bounce/spike, try putting the limit order 1-3 cents above the ask to MAKE SURE TO GET FILLED (I put my limit at 2.67 when the best ask was 2.67 but it popped up too quickly and I missed it)
- Do not try to make a trade "work" by re-adding in bad places just because you are frustrated that you missed covering (I readded in the worst places when I should have just taken my 5 cent profit and waited for higher again to re-short, considering this was still the FRONTSIDE and also going into the last 30-40 minutes of the day)
- Make sure to get filled into dips/washouts even if you have to take the ask (I should have made sure to cover most/all into each of those dips and I could have taken much more advantage of the 2.75-2.95 "channel range" that it had)
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