Trades for May 26, 2015

I really, really do not feel like posting this blog today, I am extremely embarrassed of my trading today and I can't keep doing this.  I hardly feel like even trading the rest of the week, I mean seriously, I came back from two huge losses earlier in the month but I just did the exact same thing again, I can come back the third time, but it's really demoralizing taking big losses like this and having to start over again.  Sorry I ramble on a lot again on this post, once again, I'm not sure how useful/beneficial it is for learning (especially considering I didn't learn from it the first two times), but I am just throwing some my thoughts out there again.

I traded bigger today than I did the last two days and on worse setups and I really paid the price for it, PMBD was a "classic" gap up parabolic and fade just like ISR and ONTY, the only reason I was long was because I didn't have shares to short, and I tried to turn a 15 cent scalp into a "homerun" by adding to a winner at first and then to a loser, and missing exits and it tanked, down about 2k in the first 30 minutes and that ruined my mindset for the whole day and I was trading a lot more emotionally and irrationally and trying too hard to "make it back".  

When I lost on a lot PBMD last week, I didn't feel nearly as bad as I do now because a lot of other people lost as well, today, I'm probably the only one that lost on VBLT because I was shorting before anyone else even saw it or cared about it.  So annoying seeing the stock before everyone else (I was watching it since about 10:40-11 AM around around 5.60-5.88) and before the volume actually came in, but that was the problem, I was short when nobody cared about it and I was super early and then once people started chasing it higher, I was already "stuck short" with a terrible average, and it was way too thin and spiked up very quickly and broke right through resistance levels on the daily chart at 7.09 and 7.86 (but it faded from the second one but it did break momentarily).

I "nailed it" for the last two days last week (my best two trading days ever, in terms of the PnL and the actual trading) but I just gave it all back and more today (my worst trading day ever in terms of the PnL and the actual trading).  So f**king brutal, I'm like down 2k on the month (after fees) with a -11.5k day, -3k day, -8k day, -14.6k day, that's 37k in losses over my only 4 red days this month, without those days I would be up 35k on the month, so insane.  I was trying to use wiring out as a method of controlling my "max loss" and "position sizing" but when the wire out requests don't get processed as soon as I send them in and I still use a lot of size (with no self-control/discipline), it can lead to huge losses like all three of the ones I just took this month.  I had a wire out request that I sent on Friday for 5.5k, it hadn't gone through yet and since I was down 2k near the open I decided to cancel it, which was stupid of me, and now I lost a lot more than that.  All three of my big losses this month had a pending wire out request that hadn't gone through yet, then I lost tons and had to cancel them and ended up wiring money back in instead of wiring money out.  

I turned my -2k day into about -1k but then let it turn into -14k, so insane.  The stock was too thin and after missing covering some, I think if I was already up on the day, I would have been out for a small profit, but instead I was too greedy wanting more, and was then readding around my average trying to "help it washout" and I would make a lot because of my first position and the adds, it was just too thin and kept holding, I had huge size and didn't panic out quick enough and it just kept going, I was thinking I could just hold it until EOD and I might be fine (when it was 6.50-7), this was retarded thinking because it could still likely go much higher and I can't keep holding it, I might either get bought in or "blown up".  It's just brutal, the higher it goes the harder it is for it to pullback to "x", when it was 6.50-6.60, I wanted a dip to 6.30-6.40 to take the loss, then when it was 6.80-7, I wanted a dip to 6.50-6.60 to take the loss, it squeezed up another 50 cents-dollar and I was in almost 10k shares which was a HUGE difference, I covered about half of it in the 7.50 area because I figured I would be getting bought in soon if I didn't, it squeezed back to 7.90's and I "panic covered" the rest of my position around there because I didn't want a spike to 8.20-8.50 and then getting bought in there.  That was a "stuff" and it faded back to 7.20-7.30 which was a 2-3k difference, which also sucked but doesn't mean a whole lot when I just lost as much as I did.

I'm going to try using Suretrader's max loss "feature" and set it for like 3k, that way I can only give back 1-2 days, not a whole week or more like I have been doing.  So insane, I can make money 4/5 days a week or 15/20 days a month but still be red because I let my losses get so out of control.  I seriously can't believe I have taken 3 losses this big this month, I was wanting to keep my account much smaller but all my losses happened when my account was like at "all time highs" and wire out requests hadn't gone through yet, and I ended up having to cancel those and even readd more funds (that I had wired out earlier).  This was the endless cycle that I was for 6 months (from Sept 2014-End of Feb 2015), making money for a week or two and giving it back in a day or two, it's the exact same, except the numbers are about 3x bigger now, because I have been trading more size and keeping my account bigger.      

The main thing thing is just not sizing in way too big on a thin stock, I was already sized in way too big with 7.5k shares and I had 10-25 cents profit and missed covering 2.5k shares, then I was "readding AROUND MY AVERAGE trying to make it work"/"help it seem weaker".  Basically, not trying to make it work with readding and not sizing in too big on a thin stock are two main things to learn from this, and also having that "oh shit" number, which hopefully will now be 3k as set by the "max loss feature" with Suretrader, hopefully that will work out fine and that will be what will help me figure out my trading at least for now.  I've been down as much as 12k on the month and up as much as 13k on the month, now I'm around breakeven, it sucks, but finishing the month breakevenish is not the end of the world, I just need to actually learn from these THREE HUGE LOSSES to make sure they don't happen again in the months to come.

Also, I listened to Michail Shadkin's speech again recently (I've listened to it twice now), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAStJmFLM60, but I guess didn't follow any of it today. Two things that he talked about (on Part 3) was not fighting RELATIVE STRENGTH AFTER 11 AM, and also not fighting RELATIVE STRENGTH on big market down days, this VBLT trade was BOTH of these, I started shorting around 11:30 AM, and the market was down 1%+ today and this was up 15%+.  Had I listened to and respected these "rules", I would have never been in this trade in the first place.

I beat my "best day record" three times, and my "best week record" two times, but I also broke my "worst loss record" three times.  I've been not consistent at all, just making money for a bit and giving it all back and more in one trade, which is exactly what I did for 6 months when I was struggling, there's no point trying to go for bigger wins if you can't also control the losses, I got overconfident this month a few times and traded way too big and paid the price for it.  Bigger wins but even bigger losses and I'm down on the month, had I just made 500/day I would be much better off than I am.  

I kept trading some and tried making some back but traded terribly and lost around another $500.

FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.

PBMD

This stock didn't gap down this time (over the long weekend) like it had been doing each night earlier, and it uptrended premarket on a new PR from 3.15 previous day close up to 3.75 open (and there was some confusion on that, they initially released the old PR and that might have trapped some shorts).  I wanted a dip to go long at the open, but the "9:28 candle" already popped it from 3.65ish up to 3.80, it opened at 3.75 and spiked up right from the open, I thought about to chasing it at 3.80-3.90 just to sell it quickly but I didn't.  It went up to 4.35 then tanked back down to 3.86 on the next candle, I couldn't short it because I don't have shares.  I went long at 3.88 on that candle and it came back to 4.05, I was trying to sell at 4.05 on the ask but missed it, then was trying at 4.04 and also missed that, it came back down to 3.80's, I tried "adding to a winner" thinking it might pop back over 4, it tanked, then I added some more "to a loser" and was sized in huge, 8500 shares 3.80 average, it bounced to 3.78, I missed selling any and it tanked to 3.30's within a few candles, I sold everything into bounces from 3.44-3.58 for a $2500 dollar loss, pretty stupid trade.  

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Long

3.77

3.51

9500

-$0.27

-$2,531.00

-7.06%

• Lessons:
• Be very careful/avoid going long after a "gap up parabolic" and washout back below VWAP, THIS IS A SHORT SETUP but I was trying to go long for a scalp just because I didn't have shares to short (IPCI today, PBMD today, ISR on "day two" and ONTY on "day one" were all similar setups, I nailed ISR and ONTY, I missed IPCI short and scalped it long, and I was on the wrong side of PBMD and didn't take any exits early enough)

ONTY

"ASCO presentation related", this tried to gap up to 3.20's but then opened at about "even", it spiked up some from there, I shorted 2k at 3.24 and wanted to cover into the dip for about 10 cents, I covered 1k at 3.16 and missed covering the rest at 3.13-3.14, it spiked right back up to the highs and I readded too early "trying to make this 1k shares work" that I had missed covering.  I had 8000 shares 3.31 average, it came back to 3.30 but held and I missed covering any and it spiked up to 3.47 on the next candle, I added 500 more shares, then covered 2k at 3.35 (right before it dropped, but I was trying to stay safe I guess), and then rest 3.26-3.30 for a tiny profit overall.  Not a very good trade either, I should have made sure to exit my first trade and then shorted again with a new trade and a better average.

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

3.31

3.28

9500

$0.03

$293.00

0.93%

ATNM

Also "ASCO presentation related", this gapped up from 2.90 to 3.10ish, then uptrended to 4.30's eventually and then faded back to 3.50's, very good range and volume on a $3-6 dollar stock, this would have been the perfect stock to trade today but I was too busy "stuck" in VBLT and losing tons there.  I scalped it short for about 10 cents, and then later was trying to go long on the washout using VWAP as a guide but it tanked much further than I wanted, right below VWAP and it seemed pretty weak, and I sold right into the dip, the loss could have been about 5-8 cents less than that, but whatever I guess, it was just an emotional trade and it didn't work. 

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

3.77

3.67

2200

$0.09

$208.00

2.51%

Long

3.85

3.70

2400

-$0.15

-$363.00

-3.92%

VBLT

Also "ASCO presentation related", "former runner", and "low float" (6m).  This uptrended from 5.30's up to 5.88, pulled back a bit and held above VWAP at 5.70ish, it spiked back up from there, I was watching this the whole time and could have easily went long early on from 5.80-6 but that's not really "my style", usually I just short the parabolic's once they are getting extended, but super frustrating seeing this "early" and that being the problem because I was short much too early.  I had 2k shares 6.21 average, which I thought was a fairly decent entry considering it was just 5.70, I tried to cover some at 6.13 as the best bid and I got a 100/1000 share partial fill, it popped back up some and I readded a little bit more, it came back to 6.15 and I only got 500 covered, I readded some more into a big pop to 6.47, somewhat early and too much size.  I had 7.5k shares 6.30ish average, it came back to 6.20 and all I got covered was 1k at 6.25, I readded that cover at 6.39, then it faded to 6.13, I had covered most of it already from 6.27-6.16, I only had 2.5k shares left.  I still had that partial order sitting at 6.13 and I wanted to rest of it to fill but it didn't, I was too slow/greedy to cover 6.15-6.20 and it came right back to 6.30, I readded some and covered some, but then I was readding more in the worst places on the bid sometimes, just "going for the homerun" and "trying to make it seem weak"/washout, it popped up to 6.55 in one candle (new highs), and instead of stopping out into that I added a bit more on the way up.  I had almost 10k shares 6.34ish average (some of my adds BROUGHT DOWN my average and made my overall size way too much for how thin this was),  I tried to cover some at 6.50 and only got 900 filled, it popped right back up and instead of "panic covering" at 6.65-6.70 for a 3-4k loss, I readded 800.  It spiked up to 7 and I was down around 6k there, it dipped back to 6.80's but I still didn't cover, then straight up to 7.50's in four candles.  I covered about half of it 7.50ish because I figured I would possibly get bought in soon, I readded 1k at 7.72, which was right for 10-20 cents but I missed covering, it spiked through 8 momentarily and I "panic covered" my whole position in the 7.90's on the "perk" that turned out to be a "stuff", I was emotional and didn't want a spike to 8.50 and then getting bought in there for another 2k.  The number of shares and the entry/exit might not be exact but the total PnL is correct.  I tried scalping it long twice after that but it didn't work and lost a bit more.           

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Short

6.41

7.07

18500

-$0.66

-$12,274.13

-10.36%

Long	7.34	7.35	1400	$0.02	$22.00	0.21%
Long	7.48	7.29	1000	-$0.19	-$190.00	-2.54%

• Lessons:
• CANNOT TRADE SO BIG ON THIN STOCKS
• SLOW GRIND ABOVE VWAP = NO REASON TO STILL BE SHORT
• Do not fight RELATIVE STRENGTH AFTER 11 AM 
• Do not fight RELATIVE STRENGTH on big (1%+) down days on the overall market
• Have to "panic out" sooner, just "eat the loss" into the offer before it becomes a ridiculous amount (I am going to set 3k "max loss" on my account, but I have to be able to "panic out" even sooner than that sometimes)
• DO NOT READD TRYING TO MAKE A TRADE WORK THAT YOU MISSED COVERING SOME, look to just take the small loss/small profit on the remaining position into dips, rather than readding more and LOWERING YOUR AVERAGE and being unable to exit anything because your size is too big and the stock is too thin
• DO NOT "try to make a stock seem weak/strong" by adding in places that you wouldn't normally trade that stock just because you are trying to "help your other position", IT DOESN'T WORK UNLESS YOU HAVE A REALLY, REALLY BIG ACCOUNT, 1-3k shares here and there doesn't really do anything even on a "really thin stock"

IPCI

This had some positive news today and gapped up from 3.10 to 3.68 open, it spiked to 3.92 at the open which was a perfect "gap up parabolic short", but I hesitated on it thinking it might pop through 4 and I would get better entries at 4.05-4.10+.  It dropped to 3.55 in two candles and I went long, 2k shares at 3.57 for a quick scalp and I sold for about 12 cents immediately, it would have been a good place to "flip short" or be shorting pops but I was too busy with my stupid PBMD trade.   

Type

Entry

Exit

Shares

+/- $Amt

$ PnL

% Pnl

Long

3.57

3.69

2000

$0.12

$230.00

3.22%