Thursday, April 30, 2015

Trades for April 30, 2015

Another awesome day, I left a ton on the table on some of my VLTC trades, on the first one my exits were perfect then I just didn't get back in and it went up over a dollar, then the other one from 10.60's, I sold early because I was just about to stop out for breakeven when it seemed weak, so I just took the small profit and it then went up another 70 cents, and also missed some profits on other ones.  It's fine, still an insane day (one of my "top 5" best days ever), I would just like to get a little bit more patient with a winner sometimes (usually when it holds a higher low and perks back up again that's when to be more patient with it as it did at 9.80's and 10.60's, versus quick washout scalps) or at least never being afraid to get back in when it setups up again (still basing at the same level and holding higher lows as it did at 9.80's and again at 10.90's).

There is so much to be made by going long on these "big runners", I usually miss a lot of entries on them because I'm looking for a washout to scalp or waiting with my orders "too low" and it just continues to base/make higher lows and then uptrend from there (I wanted to go long on a washout to about 9 but it held 9.20-9.30 then spiked all the way up to 10.40's from there).  Buying these "momentum stocks" when they are holding higher lows/basing ABOVE VWAP with risk under the base/previous low seems to work very well.  I don't take these types of trades very often but I watch them continue to keep going and going and I don't like chasing them into strength and they usually still go even higher, it would be nice to already be in with a good entry and then be choosing where to sell.  I want to get better at taking more of these types of "ABCD" long setups and being patient with them, there is so much to be made on these types of trades and I often miss big moves because I am only focused on "washout scalps" or "parabolic shorts".


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



GLUU
Big 25%+ gap up from 5.40 yesterday, hitting as high as 7 premarket and opening at 6.80 because of positive news after hours yesterday (some earnings results, some investors, some deal).  I was planning on trading it either way at the open (short a parabolic or long a washout), it washed out from 6.84 to 6.65 and I scaled in 2k shares 6.67 average and had a tiny profit on the bounce to 6.74 but I was looking for a bit more than that.  It washed out to 6.58 and I added another 3000 shares into that to give me 5000 shares 6.63 average, I sold about half immediately for a tiny profit around 6.68-6.70 and could have replaced those sells at 6.59-6.61 when it held a higher low (I tried to add 1k at 6.59 but I was too slow).  It held a higher low and perked back up again, I missed selling some into that push, it held another higher low again and popped up to 6.77 and I sold some into that, it pulled back and held again then popped back to 6.82 and I sold the rest into that push.  A decent trade overall, all of my sells were good at the time and I could have readded more again lower into the dips if I wanted to.  I watched "peak out" in the 6.80's and washout below VWAP and continue to make lower highs, this was a great "short setup" but I didn't take it, I was thinking it might trade in a small range (between 6.60-6.80) most of the day so I didn't bother with it, and didn't "chase it" when it was breaking down to new lows.  It eventually faded to 6.32, then bounced from there and held higher lows all the way back to 6.70's and closed at the highs around 6.80, I didn't trade it again because I don't like trading these "thick, slow moving" stocks very much, I would much rather trade big range, low float stocks like VLTC.

TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 6.63 6.73 5000 $0.09 $474.00 1.43%


VLTC
This has been "red" everyday for the last 6 days, from when it "parabolic'd on the daily chart", it went from about 11 to 21.75 in two days and then came all the way back to low 8's which is somewhat where it "broke out from", and it looked "due for a bounce" on the daily chart.  Christian (StockChoices) mentioned the "long idea" yesterday on twitter, and Nate nailed it long today from 8.90's and 9's to mid 10's.  I still don't have shares to short, but I was "long biased" on the stock today anyways.  Keep in mind this stock has SSR on it today, so it can trade somewhat erratically with very quick washouts and very quick bounces.  It "hung around" 8.45-8.75 for 8 minutes, then spiked over 9 in one candle, uptrended to 9.50, then consolidated and held 9.20-9.30 as support and slowly made it's way up to 10.35.  I completely missed this move because I was waiting for a bigger dip to around 9 to go long.  I want to get better at "ABCD" long's on "big runners" when they are basing/grinding up, rather than always waiting for a washout scalp and watching it uptrend a dollar or more and missing it.  It washed out from 10.35 to 9.92 and I wanted to go long on that washout and I had an order waiting at 9.92 but I didn't get filled.  I didn't "chase it up" around 10-10.10 and it spiked up again to 10.45, then it slowly faded from there to 9.80's and I scaled in long there, with 2700 shares 9.81 average and sold it from 10-10.14 into the quick pop over 10 (which hit as high as 10.16).  These were perfect exits at the time as it washed out to 9.82 (pretty much my average) in two candles, I had originally put an order in to go long again at 9.84 but then I decided to cancel it, thinking it might washout lower and I would get a better entry.  It held 9.85 support well and then popped from 9.87 to 10.09 in one candle, that was the start of the "next leg up".  It broke over the previous HOD (10.45) to 10.65 and it seemed like it was "rejecting HOD" and it slammed down to 10.33 in two candles, I was trying to go long on the bid at 10.35 when it was 10.35 by 10.43 and I didn't get filled and it spiked right back up and kept going to 11.04.  It washed out from 11.04 to 10.71 and I was trying to go long on the bid at 10.71 and I didn't get filled and it spiked up to 11 on that same candle.  It held 10.80's and spiked back above 11 up to 11.35, then washed out to 10.80 in two candles.  I got 2k shares long 10.875 avg and sold into the pop over 11 at about 11.04 (I got a 200/1000 share fill at 11.12 and had to "ditch it" around 11).  It washed out to 10.71 (same spot it washed out to earlier) and I got some partial fills with 700 shares long 10.75 avg and sold at 10.88 for a quick scalp.  It went over a 11 but then faded back to 10.50 and I was looked for 10.50-10.60 area to go long again, It didn't have the "perfect bottom" entry but I had 2k shares 10.58 avg and it bounced to 10.68 and I got about 1/2 sold, then readded at 10.61 and 10.60 (not the best entries, I took the ask when it looked like it was holding).  I looked very, very weak with about a 15k buyer at 10.60 getting "smacked" down to only 3k left with a 5k seller at 10.61 (with possibly a limit order in lower than that because it was a short with SSR on).  I almost hit the bid for breakeven at 10.60 but for some reason nobody wanted to hit the last 3000 shares, and it held and was now 10.61 by 10.67, since I just about stopped out for breakeven, I was wanting to size back down right away.  I sold 1k as the "best ask" at 10.67, then the rest 10.76-10.82, it ended up holding 10.80 support for a minute or two and going all the way back to 11.27 (I missed around 30-50 cents, I did not expect that much of a bounce, crazy).  I seriously think this would have broke 10.50 and went way lower if I had sold my 3000 shares at 10.60, but I didn't and it came all the way back to 11.20's (I feel sorry for the shorts, me selling there could have changed the whole trend).  It dipped to 10.95 and I didn't go long because I was looking for a washout to 10.80's, I thought about taking the ask at 11 when there was a big "hidden seller" getting taken out but I didn't want to "chase it" there and wasn't sure how big of a seller it was, there was still some "hidden selling" at 11.14 but it got taken right out and it spiked up to 11.46 (which was a NHOD past 11.35) and traded around 11.25-11.65 for about 40 minutes.  Then washed out from 11.32 to 10.91 in two candles, my first entry wasn't very good with 1k at 11.10, then I added 1k at 10.97 and 1k at 10.95 to have an 11.01 avg and I sold it into the pop over 11 for a tiny profit, once again perfect sells AT THE MOMENT, but then missed another 20-40 cents by not getting back in when it held a DOUBLE BOTTOM at 10.91 and went up to to 11.40 again.  Eventually, it washed out to 10.73 again and I went long again, I had about 2.5k shares 10.78 average and sold it 1k at 10.87 and 1k at 10.92 as it popped back up to 10.99, then sold the last 583 shares at 10.94.  These sells were a little bit early, but I still could have rebought around 10.85-10.90 and it ended up holding this area and going back to 11.20-11.30 again.   It held around 11.10-11.30 for about 40 minutes, then it did an absolutely "nasty" end of day washout from 11.25 to 10.20 in 4 minutes, I knew to be careful after losing a lot of it trying to "catch a falling knife" on VLTC in the last 15 minutes on April 15th, so I didn't try to scalp it around 10.70's, I figured it would probably still go lower.  I knew to be careful but I still wasn't really careful enough, I thought 11.20 to 10.50 in 3 minutes would be a good spot for a bounce and started in with 1k at 10.57, then added 1k 10.47, 1k 10.42, and 1k 10.31, the very bottom was 10.20, I had 4k shares (too much and over 2:1 margin past 3:30), it bounced back up to 10.45 with a 15k buyer there and getting hit, I sold 1k there to be safe but still thought it could bounce back up higher, he got completely hit and it was 10.35 by 10.45 but there was no real panic and it bounced back up and I sold the rest from 10.48 to 10.54 for a tiny profit.  I wanted to make sure to SELL ALL just in case it washed out lower again (my problem on my other "last 15 minutes washout scalp" was never selling all and it kept fading right until the closing bell).  It hit as high as 10.68 on that bounce, then came back down to 10.50ish and held there for a few minutes (which was also just above VWAP), then squeezed all the way back up to 10.90 (I missed 20-40 cents again but I had to "play it safe" since I didn't have the best entry, I was over 2:1 margin, and I always need to be very careful on "last 15 minute washouts").  Sorry, it's a lot of writing/explaining, but that was all my scalping on VLTC to make 2.5k on it today, even with selling too early many times.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 9.81 10.08 2700 $0.27 $724.60 2.74%
Long 10.88 11.04 2000 $0.16 $320.00 1.47%
Long 10.75 10.88 700 $0.13 $93.00 1.24%
Long 10.60 10.74 4000 $0.14 $563.44 1.33%
Long 11.01 11.09 3000 $0.09 $264.00 0.80%
Long 10.78 10.91 2583 $0.13 $324.24 1.16%
Long 10.44 10.50 4000 $0.06 $230.00 0.55%
  • Lessons:
  • Can always buy a "bigger runner" when it's holding higher lows ABOVE VWAP, with risk under the base/previous low, then be patient with it, sell into parabolic's or when it makes a "lower low"
  • Try to be more patient with a winner (or get back in if you already sold) when it holds a higher low/double bottom and "perks" back up again, try to get better at knowing when it's just a "quick washout scalp" versus the start of the uptrend again (usually once it starts to hold a higher lower on a dip, then it will then resume it's uptrend at least temporarily, can be more patient looking for a much bigger move)
  • Be careful/avoid trying to "catch a falling knife" into the last 15 minutes (this time, I made a small profit but this still could have went lower and I had already "add, add, added" too much to 4k shares, if this somehow went below 10, I could have almost given back my whole day from one trade)

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