I can work on patience in the future on winning trades, but part of the reason I was exiting so early on most of my trades today is because I was sized in bigger than I wanted to be, so I usually size back down right away for a small profit and then see what it does from there. The trades today have a lot of shares from scaling in and out and staying in some of the position and then readding again, it's all considered "one trade" but I never had that many shares at once, I will explain each trade in more detail below. It doesn't look great making all my gains from 5-10 cents just on huge size, but keep in mind that I was scaling in and out and I also left a ton on the table on most of them. I should try to be more patient with at least a some of the position until it gives me a REASON to exit the position (a big washout or higher lows and starting to grind back up would be reasons to exit the rest of the position on a short, I could have made a lot more on ORMP, ZIOP and AVP had I been more patient with a winner once it started doing what I wanted on that "last part" of each of the trades).
I realize some of what I'm saying is in hindsight and it's easy to say I should have done "such and such" and entered at "x" price and exited at "x" price. It's much harder to know what's going to happen in real time, but a lot of what I'm saying are PATTERNS that repeat themselves over and over again, so I still think it's helpful to explain what I should have done in these situations, so that next time, when there are similar situations/setups, I will be able to trade them much better by following some of the lessons and guidelines that I have talked about in the blog.
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
GBSN
I can't chase these morning spikes long, it spiked from 4.45 to 4.80, I would have been shorting if I had shares since it's a parabolic on "Day 2" which is much safer than parabolic on "Day 1" like yesterday. It washed out from 4.80 to 4.51 and I scaled in long, 1k 4.56 1k 4.52 and sold immediately 4.62 and 4.65 for a quick scalp.
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Long | 4.54 | 4.64 | 2000 | $0.10 | $190.00 | 2.09% |
BCLI
Gapped up from 4.60 to 5.20's on positive biotech data results today. I went long on the premarket washout at 5.06 (only 600/1k filled) and I sold immediately at 5.10 when it wasn't bouncing much and the 5.10 big buyer was getting hit. Missed the opening minute short anywhere 5.10-5.19 and it faded nicely to 4.90ish. It bounced back to 5.05, and I tried to short 1000 shares at 5.05 looking for VWAP over/under reject and fade back down (VWAP was 5.03 at the time), I only got 200/1k filled at 5.05, and it dropped to 4.95 two minutes later. I added another 1000 at 5 just so I had something meaningful to cover, it wasn't really breaking down and it popped to 5.04 again, I covered at 4.99 so that I could focus on ORMP.
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Long | 5.06 | 5.10 | 600 | $0.04 | $24.00 | 0.79% |
| Short | 5.01 | 4.99 | 1200 | $0.02 | $22.00 | 0.37% |
ORMP
Was starting to short into the parabolic, I started at 9.17 but only got 100 shares filled there and then I canceled it, I added more 9.27-9.37 to give me 1000 shares 9.31ish average (I could have covered some of that into dips earlier but I missed it, this is a fairly thinly traded stock and you won't get filled into dips unless you already had the orders in). This trade was much better thought out than my trade on it yesterday, this was "Day 2" and I had somewhat of a guide for my risk, 9.50-9.80 area from yesterday. It topped out at 9.40's and washed out to 9.05, I originally had an order to cover some at 9.08 but then I canceled it and moved it lower and missed it when I tried to fill on the bid. It bounced back to 9.25 and I added another 1000 into that 9.22ish (somewhat emotionally readding because I missed my covers), but I covered those adds immediately 9.07-9.16, then got 500 filled at 8.96 and missed covering my last 500. It bounced back to 9.19, and I added another 1000 again 9.14-9.16 when it was topping out. Covered pretty early on this part of the trade, 500 at 9.06, 500 at 8.93 and 500 at 8.83, it was soon 8.70's and then 8.50's and lower. Good trade overall where readding on bounces actually worked how it's supposed to, rather than some of the one's that I have been fighting lately, I should have been more patient after that last lower high and retest of the previous lows and VWAP after such a big move and failing to break new highs on "Day 2".
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Short | 9.23 | 9.00 | 3000 | $0.23 | $679.00 | 2.45% |
- Lessons:
- Do not be too greedy on exits by changing orders, especially on thinly traded stocks (I wanted to cover half at 9.08 to size back down but I changed my order and missed it and it bounced all the way back to my average in a few candles)
- Try to be more patient with a winning short once it's doing exactly what you thought and is making lower highs and retesting the previous low, if it starts to hold that area as support then cover some/all of the position, but there's a good chance it will break to new lows if it just failed to bounce and made another lower high and is retesting the previous lows after a big move
- Once it's convincing back under VWAP, can be patient with a winning short, covering once it's "too low volume" and just "hanging around" (ideally I would have waiting for the 8.90 retest, once it broke washed out to 8.70's and was back under VWAP I could have been patient with at least some of the position, looking for "the next leg down" to cover into in the 8.50 range)
ZIOP
Big move up today on some positive news/rumors, steady uptrend in the morning from 10.30's to 11.50ish and then a parabolic from 11.40 to 11.77 in a few candles. I wanted to short into that parabolic, but I missed it (Accept Shrt 500 ZIOP 11.77 --ARCA--11:28:02), it started washing out nicely from there and I didn't chase it short. I started scaling in long at 11.40 thinking that 11.30-11.40 area would hold as support as it did before the parabolic, but it didn't and it kept washing out further. I added too much too soon, 500 at a time from 11.37-11.20, I had 2500 shares 11.31 average and it hit 11.16 at the very bottom, it bounced back up in a few candles and I sold everything 11.30-11.34 for basically breakeven and it hit 11.48 on that candle and then hit 11.60 a few minutes later, completely minimized my profits but I was not expecting for it to washout that much and didn't want to get too greedy trying to turn it into a big profit. Then I shorted too much all in one spot, 2500 shares again 11.48-11.52, I should have started in 1000 at 11.48 and then added maybe another 1000 shares if it went higher, there was NO REASON to short so much all in one spot, it hardly changed my average at all. It dipped from 11.60 to 11.40 and I tried to cover 1000 at 11.42 but I only got 600 filled. I readded that 600 at 11.52, and then was covering 11.43-11.34, but I got a 300/1000 share fill on my last 1000 shares at 11.34, and I didn't change the order to 11.35-11.40 to cover the last 700 shares and it popped back to 11.50. I readded 500 then covered 600 at 11.40 (still 600 left now, avg is still 7.50ish), when I should have just been covering ALL since it was holding a higher low. I got a 100 share fill to add at 7.57 and missed covering anything into 7.50ish dip for breakevenish, It popped to 11.60's and was topping out there and I added another 1300 shares to give me 2000 shares 11.59ish average, there was a big bid at 11.60 and I was expecting it to get hit and washout, but I was still uncomfortable with having 2000 shares in case it ripped 10-30 cents in a candle or two which it could have, I covered everything 11.60-11.48 for a VERY TINY profit (I sort of didn't mean to cover that much that soon but I just had some orders in and then I put new orders in without canceling the old ones and then everything just got taken out quickly) and it hit 11.41 on that candle and then faded to 11.20's and eventually to 11 (missing 30-60 cents on that part of the trade), I should have covered about half for a tiny profit to size back down and then been patient with the other half, considering it's had a big up move today and it just failed at breaking out to new highs, still a long way for it fade back down, but still making sure to be covering into key areas (11 dollar whole number) and respecting higher lows, it ended up grinding all the way back to 11.60's later in the day.
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Long | 11.31 | 11.33 | 2500 | $0.01 | $35.00 | 0.12% |
| Short | 11.53 | 11.46 | 5000 | $0.08 | $387.00 | 0.67% |
- Lessons:
- Do not add too much too soon, there is no reason to be adding more all in one spot when you are still uncertain of what the stock is going to do, I should have been more patient for my adds on both my long and my short and then with a better average I would have been able to be more patient with it and make more profits overall
- Be sure to cover your WHOLE position once it starts to base/grind back up (I left 700 shares on and that made my overall average worse which "made me" cover so soon once it started working again, I'm happy that I waited until 11.60's to add most of it, rather than adding all the way up, but still would have been a much better trade covering the rest of the position and waiting for re-entries later on)
AVP
There was an intraday news release on possible "North American Business Sale", positive news, it went from 8.15 to 8.66 and then was volatility halted for 5 minutes, and opened at 8.91, hit 8.95 then washed out to 8.67, then was trading 8.70-8.85 for about 2 minutes and there was tons of buyers absorbing/refreshing 8.70-8.75 even with people smacking the bid (and probably hammering in short), I thought about going long but Suretrader has having that error that it sometimes has, saying that I can't trade it because it's halted even after it already reopened. It spiked from 8.80's to 9.30 in a few candles and I scaled in short 2000 shares 9.25 average and it washed out to 9.13 but I only got 1000 shares covered at 9.16, then readded another 2000 too early from 9.24-9.31 (it hit 9.39 for a second), giving me 3000 shares 9.27ish avg, I got 1k covered at 9.21 and 1k covered at 9.17, then it started to grind and I didn't cover my last 1000 for breakevenish, and tried to make it work by readding more from 9.28-9.35, I was still expecting another pull but I underestimated how far it would go first. I was short 3400 shares 9.30 average and it hit 9.46, it washed out from there to 9.20's and I covered 2700 9.22-9.25 and then the last 700 at 9.16. It continued to fade down to 9ish, bounced back to 9.20ish and then faded to 8.80's, I minimized this trade as well but my average wasn't very good and I was originally down quite a bit, I should have been making sure to COVER ALL into washouts and staying away from the grind, and being much more patient with any re-adds and then I might have been more patient with a winner if I had a better overall average and wasn't down so much unrealized. Another thing to be aware of is that washout at 14:42 from 8.90 to 8.69 when the company denied the rumor that caused this whole run-up, it bounced right back up the next candle and continued on it's trend, as if nothing happened and even hit 9.20's again before the close, just always be careful not to become too biased, that washout/news probably trapped a lot of shorts and then it continued to hold and came right back up.
| Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Short | 9.28 | 9.20 | 6408 | $0.08 | $508.40 | 0.85% |
- Lessons:
- Make sure to COVER ALL when trying to scalp quick parabolic's and washouts on news release plays, and making sure not to readd too early "trying to make it work" just because you missed covering all of it, wait patiently for any other re-entries
NVGN
Nice, steady uptrend all day from 5.90 to 6.70's (daily chart high during market hours is 6.74), then a parabolic from 6.80 to 7.20 on that daily chart breakout, then it based at 7.15-7.25 for 5 minutes and then next leg up to 7.50, there were no shares to short at Suretrader. I tried scalping the washout long at 7.17 but I only got 100 shares filled, it bounced to 7.27 but I missed selling my 100 shares and was okay with adding more lower for a quick scalp. I had an order in at 7.08 and I only got 200 filled there at first and could have sold my 300 shares anywhere 7.10-7.17 (I would have probably sold there if I got the full 1000 filled at 7.08 but I didn't care about the 300 shares), then the rest filled and I also got some filled at 7.02, it popped to 7.10 for a second but I missed selling any. I added another 1000 at 6.97, then added a bit more at 6.97 and 6.98 with partial fills, taking the ask "trying to make it pop back up". I ended up with 3470 shares 7ish average and I sold it all 7.05-7.15 into that first spike. This was a bit of a "forced trade" and too much size for the quality of the setup but I was basically adding to "try to keep it up" which sometimes works on these thinly traded stocks, I need to be more careful doing that, it worked today but it's what got me in trouble yesterday on GBSN.
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
|
Amazing trading. Great job for you. The few days that you have made some losses have only been a come-back for this moment. I am seriously proud of you man. Keep up the great work!!
ReplyDelete