Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Trades for April 21, 2015

Had one thing in mind today, nail BIOC, and I did pretty good on it, could have been much more (missing 30+ cents on 7k shares then missing 40+ cents on 9k shares, crazy) but like I've said before $1000-2000 per day is incredible, I should always be satisfied with that, and 3k is even more incredible, this is my 2nd best day ever.  I am happy that I accomplished a huge green day without holding through any big unrealized losses (like I have been the last 3 days and other times as well).  I feel much better about my trading today than the last 3 days even though the dollar amounts are somewhat similar, I feel my trading today was much better and no big unrealized losses.

But, I didn't show enough self-control today on my position sizes, and I already broke my 7k shares max size "rule" (I had 7100 shares once and then 9000 shares later), even though I was adding around my average and not down a whole lot, I still need to make sure to abide by this rule at least for now to prove to myself that I can be disciplined enough to stay under that number on my own (not from leverage limits and wiring out).  Even though I was fairly confident in my add's and they worked out, I still need to stay less than 7000 shares, you never know what can happen, these momentum stocks can rip/drop 10-15 cents out of nowhere and then you are down huge from one candle because of the big position size.  Also being uncomfortable with too big of a position can "make you" cover it all for a tiny profit after being down a little bit or even just being uncomfortable watching every tick around your average, scared of a 5-10 cent rip, and you (at least this is what I did today) end up covering it all for a tiny profit and making less than if you had smaller size and were more patient with it.

There are TONS of arrows on the charts, because I generally do 1000 shares in all of my orders (on $3-6 dollar stocks) and also sometimes get partial fills.    


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



BIOC
Big runner yesterday and gapped up from 3.36 to 3.85 open today.  I shorted 1k at 3.99 and 1k at 4.04 into the initial one minute push (the top was 4.06), then it pulled to 3.86 and HELD 3.85 (LOD) and I missed covering any for a tiny profit (and could have readded covers again), it popped to 4.11 and I added 1k at 4.02 and 1k at 4.10, I had 4k shares 4.04ish average.  I covered 3200/4000 from 3.90-3.83, then readded 2800 from 3.89-3.95 (would have been better if I covered 3.80ish then reshorted 3.90's, I basically readded at the same place I covered earlier), I now had 3600 shares and I covered it from 3.73-3.78 for a $1150 total profit in the first 20 minutes with only having 4000 shares at the most.  I then scalped it long for some reason, long at 3.70 and sold at 3.73, then long at 3.63 (only 595 filled), and sold at 3.72.  Then sized in short again with not the best average, 4000 shares 3.73ish average and it pulled to 3.65 and HELD a higher low, I did a good job of covering HALF, but I still should have covered ALL and then waiting for better entries later on.  It popped back to 3.80's and I added more into that, and got 1k filled at 3.73 to size back down (was trying to cover more than that).  I added more again and was trying to cover some at 3.76 to size back down and it hit 3.76 but then "bid props" up to 3.86 and I was already short around 5000 shares.  I added a bit more to 7100 shares total, 3.80ish average, it was hanging around 3.80-3.88, and then broke BACK BELOW VWAP (3.84 or so) and faded to 3.70 five minutes later, but I had already covered most of it from 3.76-3.79 and then just covered the rest at 3.70, and watched it slowly fade off and then wash out to 3.46 (missing around 30 cents on 7k shares).  I tried scalping it long, but never had a very good average and missed selling ALL for a small profit, ended up making $112 bucks total from that whole mess when the whole trade was 10,000 shares from going in and out (not a very good trade, it was still in a downtrend and I should have waited for higher lows if I wanted to go long).  It did grind back up to 3.50's and then 3.60's but I didn't really want to stay in the slow grind.  My IDEAL entry for a reshort was 3.60-3.70 (3.71 was VWAP), it eventually got there and I hammered in again, 6200 shares 3.65ish average and covered around half at 3.56, I would have liked to have covered a bit more there, but I was expecting/hoping for 3.60 to top out again and fade off from there and wanted to try to be patient.  It popped back above 3.60 and I added more at 3.62 then poorly at 3.59 (hitting the bid to try to "create more panic" but it was just absorbed), it popped back to 3.65, my average was around 3.64 but 5200 shares now and I had missed my 10 cents profit on 3k shares (would have been better to have covered most/all of it there and then been REPLACING those covers again here), and my last two add's had lowered my average.  I added more 3.62-3.64, to give me 9000 shares 3.64ish average which was probably not very smart and too risky, when it was just hanging around my average and I was already in pretty big.  I started sizing back down from 3.62-3.57, and then I just got impatient and covered the rest around there for a tiny profit, I didn't want to watch every tick and it was pretty slow moving at the time.  It did nothing for another 30 minutes, then it broke 3.55 and faded to 3.40's, hung around 3.40's for an hour, then it broke 3.40 and washed to 3.06 in less than 5 minutes.  A perfect "late day fade" and green to red washout, once again, VWAP over/under was the highest spot it ever bounced to before fading all the way back to new lows.  

TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 3.99 3.82 6800 $0.17 $1,156.00 4.27%
Short 3.79 3.73 10100 $0.05 $554.00 1.45%
Short 3.64 3.59 12000 $0.06 $680.00 1.56%
Long 3.70 3.73 1000 $0.03 $30.00 0.81%
Long 3.63 3.72 595 $0.09 $53.55 2.48%
Long 3.45 3.46 10000 $0.01 $112.06 0.32%
  • Lessons:
  • Make sure to COVER ALL when it is holding a HIGHER LOW above LOD, even if you miss the "perfect bottom" covers, it will most likely continue to uptrend and it is much better to take the small profit and then look for better entries again higher (using VWAP over/under as a guide)
  • Have more confidence and patience in a short once it fails at VWAP over/under (both my "big size" trades were based off of VWAP, but I ended up covering everything like a "piker" for very tiny profits once it started doing exactly what I wanted, I ended up missing 30+ cents on both of them)
  • Be careful of sizing in too big, if I had smaller size on both of my "big trades", I probably would have actually held them longer and been more patient with them (the most I was down unrealized was only $400, but just being uncomfortable with that much size and watching every tick, I starting sizing back down right away for small profits then ended up being impatient and taking the "instant gratification" on the rest)

VLTC
I almost went long on this a few times today but was mostly focused on BIOC.  It broke 9.90 yesterday (breakout on daily chart) and HELD ABOVE VWAP all day today, which meant there wasn't much reason to short, except for TEMPORARY backside (lower highs) or quick parabolic scalps, the overall trend was still bullish.  The 14.75 NHOD breakout in the last 2 hours was key for more upside and it went to 19.20 in about an hour, absolutely unreal, these are the kinds of stocks that blow up accounts when you are shorting and "add, add, adding" all the way up, I haven't had shares to short since April 6th which is probably a good thing.  I tried scalping it long when it was tanking into the last hour which was very risky, it went from 19.20 to 15.50 in 15 minutes, my trades worked out okay because I wasn't greedy on exits and got great fills on my exits, but very risky and could have given back a large chunk of my day if I missed fills and kept adding and adding.  The trades were, 500 shares at 17.92, could have sold for 10-20 cents but missed it, tried to add 300 at 17.61 and got 50 shares filled and thankfully got filled at 18.04 for a tiny profit, right before it tanked.  Then scaled in poorly 500 shares at a time, to have 1500 shares, 16.57 average and thankfully/luckily got very good fills on the next candle, 500 at 16.68, 500 at 16.78 and 500 at 16.88 (16.88 was the very top of that candle).  It then dropped to 15.55 two minutes later and I scaled in 700 shares 15.73 average and sold at 15.96 for another quick trade, that was finally the bottom and it bounced another 50 cents but I was just trying to be safe.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 17.89 18.04 550 $0.15 $81.50 0.83%
Long 16.57 16.78 1500 $0.21 $315.00 1.27%
Long 15.73 15.96 700 $0.23 $158.00 1.43%
  • Lessons:
  • Above VWAP all day and just broke out to new highs on the daily chart = no reason to short, can scalp parabolic's and lower highs, but understand that the overall trend is still bullish
  • Be careful of trying to go long after such an extreme parabolic and now "washing out"/backside, it will likely "give back" a lot of that move, especially in the last hour (I had good exits but if I missed those this could have been a big loss)
  • Should maybe try "chasing" the "breakout" on these uptrending, low float runners, the NHOD breakout was at 14.75 after holding above VWAP and consolidating all day, it went from 14.75 to 19.20 in about an hour, absolutely insane (I'm generally not able to chase longs into strength, but just a thought, maybe with very small size, or waiting for a dip again to get into the trade, can always go long with risk to the previous low/bottom of the base)

No comments:

Post a Comment