Monday, April 13, 2015

Trades for April 13, 2015

Another red day, ended up being a lot less than I was expecting, I'm in a bit of a slump this month so far.  I think I'm still thinking too much about past losses and subconsciously trying too hard to make back.  I was up $800 but it wasn't "good enough" and I forced a dumb trade on GBSN in the midday lull with too much size for the amount of volume it was trading at the time, and too much size for the quality of the setup.

Today still could have been much worse though, I was down a lot more unrealized on VLTC, GBSN and ORMP with big size.  I'm just trading super undisciplined and uncontrollable with too much size and nothing has really been working out very well, it's only a matter of time before I take another huge loss if I keep continuing to trade the way I have been.  I still MAJORLY have to work on controlling my position sizes, I can't keep going "all in" every trade just because I'm down and I'm trying to turn it into a profit.  Also not forcing so many trades in the middle of the day and giving back my morning profits, I was getting better at "taking it easy" after nailing the first few hours, but lately, I've been forcing too many trades midday and they usually end of costing me.

I think the main things to learn from PSTR, VLTC, and ORMP which I either lost a lot or almost lost a lot from shorting too early, is that I should avoid shorting just after a breakout on the daily chart.  I can still scalp parabolic's and topping action, but the upwards momentum is much more powerful on these low float stocks when they are breaking out to new highs on the daily chart.  VLTC on April 6th, I started shorting around 3.30 (only 20 cents above the daily chart breakout at 3.09) and lost $4500 that day being stubborn with it.  PSTR on April 10th, I started shorting from 5.27 (only 30 cents above the daily chart breakout at 4.97), and almost lost $5000 at the very top, but ended up losing $1000 on it.  Lastly, ORMP today, I started shorting at 8.57 (57 cents above the daily chart breakout at 8), and almost lost $2000 but ended up losing $500.  PSTR and ORMP, I could have lost a lot more, and they came back well below my average eventually, but just think of the MISSED OPPORTUNITY from being stubborn and not being able to short with a good average then being patient with it.

My charts this month have been somewhat embarrassing, the whole point of this blog was for me to want to make my charts look "cleaner" with good entries and exits and to keep myself more accountable and not getting myself into these big unrealized losses with big position sizes all the time.  Tons of tickets today with not that many different trades (until I'm completely out of the position), lots of smaller orders scaling in and out and lots of partial fills.



FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.


VLTC
Washout at the open from 6.45 to 6.03 and I went long at 6.06 sold at 6.18, it came down to 6 and I was wanting 5.90's for the next entry and didn't take it at 6 when it was holding.  It bounced to 6.30's then back to 6.10's and then straight up to 6.90 in about 5 minutes.  What a great shorting opportunity but still no shares to short for me.  I was trying to scalp the washout, it pulled from 6.90 to 6.46 and I went long 1k at 6.52 and 1k at 6.46, pretty good entry at the time.  It bounced to 6.63 and I only got half sold there at 6.62, I could have and should have hit the bid 6.50-6.60 to sell the rest and then waited for other entries.  It washed out to 6.26 on the next candle, and I added very poorly into that from 6.26-6.47, leaving me with 4400 shares 6.41 average.  I hit 6.20 and then bounced back up and I sold 2k 6.41-6.42 for breakeven and then the last 2400 6.48-6.53 into the spike.  Terrible trade, I got lucky on it, need to make sure to SELL ALL WHEN scalping washouts.  
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 6.06 6.18 1000 $0.12 $120.00 1.98%
Long 6.43 6.49 5400 $0.06 $339.58 0.98%
  • Lessons:
  • Always be careful scalping long on washouts, especially after such a big parabolic, ALWAYS make sure to SELL ALL into the bounce even if you have to hit the bid for a lesser profit on some of it, it's much better to take it off and then look for re-entries again later rather than add, add, adding trying to make it work 



ARWR
Big gap up from 7.91 on positive biotech news (FDA approval), hitting as high as 9.50 premarket, unfortunately, there were no shares to short at Suretrader today.  It ended up basically giving back the whole gap.  Straight down from the open from 8.90 to 8.18 in 5 minutes, I bought 1000 shares at 8.27 and added 1000 at 8.19, I sold half at 8.32, 30 seconds later, but missed the other half and it pulled to 8.18 again, so I readded my sell at 8.20 and sold it all 8.32-8.35 for a quick scalp.       
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 8.22 8.32 3000 $0.10 $311.77 1.26%



BIND
Somewhat accidental trade, I put the order in at 7.47 for the first washout and thought I canceled it when it didn't fill, and I got filled on the next candle as it hit 7.38.  I didn't want to try to turn it into a profit so I just sold at 7.49 (only 400/1k filled) and then the rest at 7.47 for about breakeven.  
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 7.47 7.48 1000 $0.01 $8.00 0.11%



GBSN
No shares on this today, I was wanting to go long, but I have such a hard time chasing a long completely into strength, like the VLTC and PSTR parabolic's on Friday.  I watched the huge parabolic but didn't take any entries.  I had an order waiting for 1000 shares at 4.26 around 9:40 and it came down and hit 4.28 and I missed it, and it was 4.80's five minutes later.  I missed other entries for scalps as I was still managing VLTC, then it did a double bottom at 4.27ish and reclaimed above VWAP, it bounced from there and then continued to hold higher lows and eventually went to 4.90's.  I missed all my entries going long off dips and that was a great setup to go long on this stock today.  It did a big pull off of HOD from 4.93 to 4.77 then bounced and MADE A LOWER HIGH at 4.88. Perfect "HOD rejection", and me and AT09 were thinking it's a good short now and should fade back to 4.50's, but we didn't have shares, Nikko nailed the short from 4.84, covering 4.10-4.50.  It was holding 4.40's again and trying to perk back above VWAP, and I completely forced a trade after missing so many opportunities on the way up.  I tried chasing on the ask at 4.48 and I got a partial fill, then I was trying to add more to make it more meaningful than 500 shares, also some of my adds were "trying to hold it up", taking the ask to try to get more people to buy it up higher, I ended up with 2600 shares 4.49 average and was trying to sell some into the 4.55 push, I had an order in at 4.52 but then I canceled it when only 200 had filled thinking it would go higher, I was looking for a quick "chasers buying/shorts covering" spike to 4.65ish the way that VLTC and GBSN tend to trade, just low volume choppiness and then a spike out of nowhere.  It failed at 4.55 and I didn't get anything sold, even though I was trying to sell on the ask 4.53-4.55, I got another 1000 at 4.50 (still somewhat "trying to hold it up") and got 1000 sold at 4.53 but I still had 2400 shares.  It was still acting weak and there was hardly any volume, there was a big buyer (16k or so) at 4.48 and I was planning on stopping out there if it was getting hit, unfortunately, it was "pulled" and there was only around a 2000 share buyer still there and I tried to hit it with my full position but I was too slow and then there was an 8000 share seller at 4.44 already.  I added 1k at 4.37, and I was somewhat trying to sell 4.40-4.42 (there was a lot of hidden size absorbing on the ask), but wasn't aggressive enough getting filled and didn't hit the bid 4.38ish, I added more terribly when I should have been panic selling, 1k at 4.28 and 1k at 4.30, then added another 1k at 4.12 and a 200 share partial fill at 4.08.  I had around 6600 shares 4.35ish avg and I sold it all 4.19-4.24 for an $826 dollar total loss, giving back all my profits on the day.         
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 4.37 4.26 7800 -$0.11 -$826.61 -2.43%
  • Lessons:
  • Double bottoms and higher lows and VWAP reclaims are all good indicators to be buying dips as long as it continues to hold higher lows, and then be selling into "rips", especially around HOD area if it's "rejecting" HOD (going 5-15 cents above it and then washing out and making lower highs)
  • Be careful/avoid going long when it's still making LOWER HIGHS and is acting weak on VWAP over/under (after that pull off HOD and lower high, this was the perfect chart to be shorting all pops, but because I didn't have shares to short, I forced a trade that was against the overall trend, just looking for a quick scalp and missed my exits and added more to a loser and ended up giving back my whole day)
  • Lately, a parabolic move around 10-15 minutes before close is still "premature" and the stock ends up giving back the whole move before the close (GBSN today, PSTR on April 7th, VLTC on April 6th are some recent examples), good place to be selling if long or shorting for a quick scalp (also VWAP reject helped here on GBSN)


ORMP
Completely forced trade, trying to make some money back after losing it all on GBSN.  I knew the daily chart breakout was at 8, and it just broke past 8 to 8.20 on a 60k shares 1 minute volume spike.  I guess I should be chasing these daily chart breakouts long, but I'm not very good at chasing longs into strength.  I thought it was getting somewhat extended so I shorted 500 shares at 8.57 (the top was 8.65), I had an order in at 8.43 to cover and it hit 8.47 and held.  I put in another order for another 500 at 8.68 when I should have been stopping out 8.47-8.60 (similar to JRJC last week, I shorted into a parabolic, it pulled back 10-15 cents and I just missed my order, I should be taking the tiny profit/loss and then waiting for another entry, rather than staying in and readding trying to make it work), it took my order out and hit 8.85 on that same candle and was now 8.65ish by 8.85ish spread.  I add, add, added to 2600 shares 8.87 average, it hit 9.49 and then pulled back to 8.90, I was way too greedy on my orders, having them spread out in 500 share lots from 8.72-8.96, 9.40 to 8.90 in two minutes is a big pull and I should have had my orders in higher, all I got filled was 500 at 8.96 and then it popped right back up to 9.27 the next candle.  I readded 300 at 9.25 and didn't cover any 9.12-9.35 when it was still holding higher lows.  Then comes the "next leg up" to 9.85, now I'm down $2000 unrealized, it slowly faded from there and I covered some 9.41-9.23, then readded 500 at 9.40, new avg was now 9.07, covered most 9.14-9.26, only 551 shares left that didn't fill.  Ended up being a $700-800 dollar loss at that point,  I missed covering my 551 shares and then was "trying to make it work" adding more from 9.17-9.38 and not getting anything covered because it was so thin with a 10 cent spread and I would miss it and it would keep "skipping up on air", I had 1700 shares 9.19ish average and it was 9.40 by 9.47 (down $300+ from trying to make that last 550 shares work).  It looked like it was topping out and I hit the bid, 500 shares at 9.42, it pulled to 9.10 two minutes later and I covered everything 9.25-9.11, from 2200 shares 9.24 avg.  That turned out the be the last "stuff" and it ended up breaking 9 and fading to 8.40's (missing $1000+ in profits on that last part of the trade).  Had I made sure to cover the last 551 shares 9.10's or at least waited until 9.30-9.50 to readd anymore, I would have ended up with a much better average and I might have been more patient with it, my re-adding too early and being down 20 cents on fairly big size again is what "made me" cover for a tiny profit once it started fading again.    
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 9.09 9.19 5048 -$0.10 -$510.57 -1.11%
  • Lessons:
  • Avoid shorting "just after" a DAILY CHART BREAKOUT, VLTC, PSTR and ORMP were all daily chart breakouts and they went WAY past the "breakout spot" before choosing a direction from there
  • Make sure to cover after shorting a parabolic when it starts to base again, especially when still "early" on a thinly traded stock, CAN ALWAYS TAKE THE ASK for a tiny profit or breakeven once it's still holding, it will likely spike higher again
  • Be careful of add, add, adding so much so quick, I have to put much more thought into my adds and always try to make them profitable from the "get go", rather than add, add, adding carelessly on the way up, I need to wait patiently for any more adds and then be covering those adds again for profit to size back down and reduce risk (If I makes adds and don't cover ANY into a dip, I end up losing on ALL of my adds even if some of them were profitable at one point)
  • After a big parabolic, I need to be covering ALL into dips once it starts to base and make higher lows again (whether it's for a loss or for profit), if it continues to "hold up", often there will be another "leg up" before choosing a direction from there (just like PSTR did on Friday), it may end up fading back below your average eventually, but it's much better to COVER ALL and take the loss when it's basing and then reshorting on the next leg up, rather than just holding and hoping


PSTR
Straight down from the open from 5.13 to 4.50's and then bouncing back up to 5, very thinly traded stock and with a 5-15 cent spread and SSR on.  I missed any trades on it all day, but nailed the parabolic late in the day, shorting 1000 shares at 5.39 and 900/1000 at 5.44, the bids "dropped out" and it hit 5.20 the next candle, I got 900 filled at 5.28 and then was trying to cover the rest on the bid from 5.16-5.21 and eventually covered it all 5.19-5.25 from some partial fills and then changing orders to make sure to cover it all.   
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 5.41 5.25 1900 $0.16 $312.00 3.03%

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