I had pretty good conviction in this SPPR trade but I still should have been making much smarter entries and add's, I did a lot more of "slamming bids" today than I usually do, which were not the best entries at times especially with a 3-5 cent spread (and I paid more in ECN fees). Everything worked out okay, but I just shouldn't have made so many "chase entries" and bid slams and should have been shorting into pops on the offer and thinking around 4-6k shares max size instead of 9k, and looking for "double tops" and "HOD rejections" as the IDEAL entries. This unrealized loss wasn't nearly as bad as MNOV was, I was down about 20 cents (on about 9k shares) at the very top for a split second then the next candle came right back to my average, but still very risky again, if it went 3.70+ I would be staring at a very big loss.
I am trying to get better at covering ALL and then replacing those shares again higher if it sets up again. I missed doing this yesterday on MNOV and it faded most of the day and then tanked today, but I did a good job of getting back in on SPPR today when it was setting up again and slowly fading off towards that 3.30 washout (ideally I would have reshorted 4.45ish but I missed that).
I have developed these "add, add, add" habits over the last 8 months of trading, and I know it is very risky at times, but I don't think I'm ever going to be able to/want to stop adding to losers. I still think I can be successful from trading like this, but I just have to be SMARTER with my entries and exits, knowing when to size in and when to size back down, and more CONTROLLABLE with my overall position size. I do not recommend anyone following my style of trading, do everything at your own risk, and understand when trading like this, all it takes is ONE BAD TRADE and you can lose days, weeks, or months of progress.
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.
SPPR
"Low floater" (2.25mil), with a big move up today on positive news of selling 2 non-core hotels (the news doesn't really matter, it's just the low float and this market and early shorts that fuel these kinds of moves) from 1.90 previous close up to 3.20, back to 2.70, then to 3.45 then back to 3.20, then up to 3.68. I wanted to short that 3.45 push and there was a big buyer at 3.35 that got smacked and it went to 3.20 (this miss is what "caused" my chase later on again at 3.35). I shorted at 3.66 and only got 700/1000 shares filled and I covered at 3.51 when there was a hidden buyer at 3.50 absorbing lots of volume. It pulled to 3.35 and was 3.35-3.50 for a few minutes, then I did a complete emotional chase, whacking the bid with 2000 shares at 3.35, and it went to 3.50 immediately. I added 1000 at 3.50, my average was now around 3.40 and it was just hanging around 3.35-3.45 and still not breaking down. I should have been sizing down for breakevenish when it was still basing but instead I did two more "bid whacks" in the 3.40's trying to "make it" seem weaker and break 3.35 and washout. It held and then perked off that level back to 3.50's and I added around another 1000 3.45ish right as it was popping back up (looks like more but it just filled at different prices), and then added a bit more again in the 3.50's. I had really big size now, around 8600 shares, 3.46ish average (from way too many adds all around my average rather than spreading them out and waiting patiently for higher), and it popped to 3.70 for a split second and I added another 1000 at 3.69 when it was failing to breakout and it did a perfect "HOD rejection" back to 3.48 (basically my average) on the next candle, I missed covering any into that but figured it would make another lower high and continue to downtrend from there. It dipped to 3.42 and I got 2000 shares covered around there, then it popped back to 3.50's and I readded 1k at 3.53 when it was failing and making a lower high. I covered 1k at 3.41, then covered everything except for 3k from 3.28-3.35 (missed some fills but I did take the ask on 1k at 3.35 when it was perking). Readded another 3000ish basically at my average 3.43-3.49, then covered everything 3.26-3.37 because it was still holding over/under VWAP pretty well and I just wanted to be completely out and then look for more re-entries on pops later on. It bounced back up to 3.45-3.47 and there was lots of hidden selling into that move. I missed any shorts 3.45ish and chased an entry, hitting the bid with 1000 shares at 3.40, it pulled to 3.29 but then held VWAP again, I was anticipating a 3.30 break and washout, and I was adding in for that (with some "chase entries" again, hitting the bid rather than waiting for a good entry on a pop), I ended up with 5000 shares 3.37 average. The 3.30 break came but there were still buyers at 3.28, so I covered 1000 shares at 3.29, it still looked like it might hold 3.28 so I then I covered another 1000 at 3.29, it then washed out to 3.10 on the biggest volume bar of the day, and I had orders already in to cover 1k at 3.23 and 1k at 3.18, and then put an order in to cover my last 1k at 3.12 and got filled for nice gain on the reshort anticipating the 3.30 break (even though I covered somewhat early). After that washout, I reshorted again, 800 at 3.20 and tried to add at 3.21 and only got 200/1000 filled, it looked like it might just grind 3.15-3.23 for a while, so I just took it off at 3.20 for breakeven. I didn't trade it at all the rest of day because I was up huge and it's a Friday. It did grind 3.15-3.23 for another hour and then slowly faded to 3, bounced to 3.15 and "stuffed" again on big volume with big bidders getting whacked back down, then slowly faded to 2.95ish, then bounced again and somehow still closed at 3.10ish, there might still be a "play" on this on Monday. | Type | Entry | Exit | Shares | +/- $Amt | $ PnL | % Pnl |
| Short | 3.66 | 3.51 | 700 | $0.15 | $105.00 | 4.10% |
| Short | 3.46 | 3.34 | 13800 | $0.12 | $1,680.47 | 3.52% |
| Short | 3.37 | 3.22 | 5000 | $0.15 | $745.00 | 4.42% |
| Short | 3.20 | 3.20 | 1000 | $0.00 | $2.00 | 0.06% |
- Lessons:
- Do not chase an entry on a short after it already did a big pullback, hitting the bid is okay sometimes into a big parabolic or adding "to a winner" with lower highs, but hitting the bid at 3.35 support right after it was 3.68 a few minutes ago is just silly, completely unlike me but that's what the "fear of missing out" can do sometimes
- Do not try to make a bad entry work, I knew my 3.35 entry was a complete chase and could have taken it off for breakevenish but tried to make it work with readds and gave myself a bad overall average and huge size and this could have been a big loss if this went 3.70+
- Do not be adding/shorting when a low float stock is basing after a big move and it's still "early" and could easily spike higher, even if you think/"know" it's going down eventually, if it's basing while still uptrending and above VWAP, it will likely spike higher and you can get better entries on pops and looking for "double tops" and "HOD rejections" as ideal entries
- VWAP over/under holding is key for any further upside in these momentum stocks, I did well with respecting it and covering most and then all of it there and then looking for re-entries later on, and then I wasn't afraid to get back in when it was setting up again
- As always, once under VWAP, can short all pops and VWAP rejects looking for a slow fade, but still respecting higher lows and key levels of support such as a whole number
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