Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Trades for March 25, 2015

Really need to work on shorting "failed follow through momentum", like ORMP did today (and CNDO and FOLD did last week).  I wanted ORMP to open at 8-8.50 and rip to 8.50-9 and I would short into the parabolic, but it had already faded quite a bit pre-market and then faded right from the open, it then bounced from 6.90's and offered great re-shorting opportunities in the 7.30's and it eventually faded to 6.20's.  ANTH was another one I missed today, I wanted to scale into a 5.20-5.50 parabolic (I had an order for 1000 shares at 5.18 to start in), but it failed at 5.10 and then slowly faded all day to 4.30's.

Also, I still really need to work on controlling my position sizes, ESPECIALLY on mediocre types of stocks and setups which I'm not as good at trading.  Today I traded way too big on not very good setups, LL washout, VBLT fading and washing out, KRFT slowly up-trending (an $80 dollar "thickly traded" stock, which is probably my least favorite thing to trade, 50+ dollar "thick" stocks).

Today, I turned a $500 dollar up day into a -$200 dollar day, could have been a lot more so I can't complain too much.  Looking in hindsight, you can say "shoulda woulda coulda" made $4000 on LL had I held another 20 minutes, and "shoulda woulda coulda" made money on KRFT instead of losing $1700, but I also could have lost a bunch on VBLT, or I could have covered dead top on KRFT, or LL could have washed out further, and I was sized into way too big on all these "mediocre" setups for no reason.  I was also forcing trades that weren't there just because I hadn't made much right off the bat (didn't make a trade for the first 30 minutes or so), then was trying to make money on KRFT because I didn't see much else out there that was moving that I liked, and then I was forcing size on VBLT trying to "make back" my loss on KRFT.



FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



LL
Would have loved to have been shorting the parabolic's in the first 15 minutes but I didn't have any shares today.  I missed the first "washout scalp" from 29.77 to 30.70, I had an order in for 300 shares at 29.62 but it didn't quite get there.  It started washing out again and my first entry was good, 300 shares at 29.53 and it bounced to 29.93, I had an order in at 29.89 at one point in that candle, then I changed it to 29.94 for an EXTRA 5 CENTS, and it came up and hit 29.92 (just missing my order) and then dropped a dollar.  I added another 600 around 29.30 and another 600 around 29.95, I had 1500 shares total 29.21 average and I scaled it all out into that first candle for a small profit (last order was 25 shares that didn't fill).  It did a "flash spike" to 30.50 which would have been like another $1/share, and then it spiked from low 29's to 32 because it was on CNBC, but oh well.  
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 29.21 29.57 1500 $0.36 $533.75 1.22%
  • Lessons:
  • Whenever you are buying washouts for quick scalps, NEVER BE TOO GREEDY on the exits, make sure to let orders fill, do not change orders higher as you will probably miss them (this trade could have been much better and much less risky had I sold my first good entry for 30-40 cents)

KRFT
Shorted into some speeding up at 82.85, only 100 shares and it pulled to 82.50 and I almost covered, but the size was so small and meaningless for $35 bucks.  Then added another 200 above 83 and had 300 shares 83.09 average, and it pulled to 82.75 but then starting grinding back up holding higher lows.  I terribly added another 100 at 83.19 which didn't change my average at all, and then added another 200 83.50ish.  This is where I should have been STOPPING OUT, not ADDING.  I "unhid" my unrealized PnL, and it was -$250 or so, but I didn't take the loss, a few minutes went by and the unrealized loss started escalating very quickly, I was waiting for a pullback/washout to cover into but it never came until it hit 85.80 (another $2 dollars a share), it pulled from 85.80 to 85, but then held 85 on two attempts ("they" were absorbing a lot at 85 and I should have been covering 85.01 when it wasn't breaking down) and then spiked up again and then continued to hold higher lows, even with the crazy 50+ cent alternating green and red candles.  Then begun the "next leg" up to 87.80s, faded back to 86.70 and I missed covering again and it spiked all the way back, but this time it made a LOWER HIGH, and then it started to fade and I covered everything 86.01-86.36 (with one 200 share readd at 86.78), with the PLAN to replace those shares again higher on a bounce.  I reshorted at 86.53 but only 300 shares and only held for a dollar.  Then scaled in long with a bad average and sold for a small profit, and ALMOST went short 300 shares at 85.59 (I had that order in but then decided not to), and then slow and steady fade to 82's with mostly red candles (not much reason to cover if short).
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 84.13 86.22 800 -$2.09 -$1,668.00 -2.48%
Short 86.53 85.56 300 $0.97 $291.00 1.12%
Long 85.18 85.34 500 $0.15 $76.50 0.18%
  • Lessons:
  • Never short a slowly uptrending "thick" stock, ONLY backside and LOWER HIGHS (even try to avoid parabolic scalps on "thick" stocks, there are lots of "professional traders" and funds involved and they can support it much higher)
  • Always make sure to COVER ALL once it starts to grind back up (I shorted into somewhat of a parabolic, it dropped 50 cents from my highest add and I was up 30 cents from a bad average and didn't take it)
  • DO NOT BE ADDING MORE TO YOUR POSITION WHEN YOU SHOULD BE STOPPING OUT (it pulled back a bit, grinded back up and then spiked to a NHOD again which means I'm WRONG and need to take the loss not be adding to the position)
  • Can always TAKE THE LOSS into a dip and then REPLACE those shares higher again if it starts to top out (I almost took the loss many times into dips in the 85's and 86's but would miss it and it would spike back up again quickly)
  • Should be covering at least some if the bid is absorbing and it's failing to breakdown a key level (85 was absorbing a lot and I should have been covering)
  • The longer you hold onto a stubborn trade, the more OPPORTUNITY you miss (I missed many other scalping opportunities long and short on this stock and also missed trades on other stocks, all because was holding onto this stubborn trade)
  • Once it pulls back and then bounces back up and makes a LOWER HIGH, can short all pops for more fading (slow and steady downtrend with mostly red candles would give you not much reason to cover)



VBLT
Wanted to be shorting this today into parabolic's but I didn't have shares, it held up pretty strong and would have been a nice long of dips but I was more short biased on it and didn't take it long until it basically started becoming the BACKSIDE, where I would have been shorting pops.  This was a "revenge" trade with too much size, I scaled in with not the best initial entry, 2000 shares 7.37 avg and it bounced to 7.43, I was trying to sell on the ask at 7.42 but couldn't get filled, then it dropped more and I added another 2000 shares in terrible spots (7.31 and 7.28), then got 2000 shares (accidently did 2000 was only trying for 1000) added at 7.17, bringing my averaged to 7.26ish and it bounced to 7.34 and I only got like 3900 shares sold, then readded more in bad spots again, ended up with 6000 shares again with 7.17 average and it had just hit 6.96.  Tried selling ALL around 7.20ish but only got 2000 sold, and it dipped to 7.06 again, then sold all into the next bounce at 7.20-7.24, for a total gain of like 3.7 cents on 10000 shares = terrible trade.  Need to not size in so much and need to make sure to sell ALL into bounces.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 7.22 7.25 10000 $0.04 $367.08 0.51%
  • Lessons:
  • Do not size in so much into mediocre setups
  • Try to space adds apart and be more controllable with the total size (your average hardly changes when you are sized in so much already and you are only compounding to the problem if it keeps going against you)
  • Make sure to ALWAYS sell ALL into bounces (I had profit three times from a bad overall average but didn't get everything filled into bounces)


ROVI
Just quick scalps with small size, taking advantage of the emotional candles, two stress free trades that worked out without "having to" add to a loser.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 18.32 18.69 300 $0.37 $111.00 2.02%
Short 18.72 18.46 400 $0.26 $104.00 1.39%

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