Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Trades for March 17, 2015

Well, so much for everything I said yesterday about having a "max size" on a stock and respecting it.  My wire out still hadn't gone through yet so I still had tons of BP, and I didn't set any "max size" on the stocks I was trading like I said I was going to.  I could have easily finished down 1-2k today but got lucky once again.  Need to do much better at controlling my position sizes in the future, all it takes is ONE BAD TRADE and I could easily lose a week or a month of profits.  I have taken two big (around 2.5k each) losses this month, but could have taken much more.  I am having my best month ever, but with undisciplined trading, and that much size, all it takes one trade and I could be right back where I started, I have to learn control my position sizes better and be more careful.

I decided to put the explanations with the charts rather than here at the start, hopefully this will be a better format for readers.



FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.


AMRN
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 2.62 2.70 1000 $0.08 $80.00 3.05%

JDST
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 14.13 14.28 500 $0.15 $75.00 1.06%


ARCO
I jumped in with 500 shares at 4.74 when a big seller came in, but it was still super early in the move and it had just pulled back 20 cents and bounced all the way back.  Thankfully, I saved anymore adds until it was around 5, and ended up with 3k shares 5.09 average, I covered some into the dip, readded on the pop (only 657 shares filled), and covered it all for a small profit.  My first entry is what dragged me down, I should have been waiting for a parabolic first, especially on a thin stock like that (it had traded only 300k volume at the time).  I missed any reshorts in the 5.10's and then chased it twice, hitting the bid on breakdowns, at 5 and 4.95, I tried to cover 1k at 4.83 but it hit there and didn't fill, ended up covering it all at 4.90.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 5.11 5.03 3657 $0.08 $285.10 1.50%
Short 4.98 4.90 2000 $0.07 $150.00 1.51%
  • Lessons:
  • ALWAYS wait for parabolic moves to short, especially on thin stocks like this, do not jump in when it's just slowly upticking
  • Don't worry too much about big sellers or things like that, often they just fake you out and trap shorts and it keeps going


ANTH
Crazy gap up for no reason on ANTH today, after yesterday's big down day and last minute bounce.  I missed shorting it the 4.50's in the first 10 minutes and it slowly faded to 4.20ish. I watched it come back to 4.50s and then just threw a starter order in for 1k at 4.63, with the plan to scale into a PARABOLIC.  I then left the room for a few minutes (I see it filled in two parts 300 and 700 so it might have worked out better if I was actually there), I came back and it was just hanging around my average for a few minutes, I had an order in at 4.53 for 10 cents on a quick pull, but held 4.61 and started grinding back up towards the HOD. My original plan was to add higher, if needed, BUT ONLY into that initial PARABOLIC, I started trying to make the trade work with more adds, and insanely added another 8000 shares within a 10 minute period, new average was 4.77, 9042 shares.  It hit 5, which is about a $2000 dollar unrealized loss, it came back to 4.83, which was only about a $600 dollar loss and I only got 1k covered.  Retested 5 again and thankfully double topped, I covered some on the way down, but still had 4000 shares (didn't get as much covered at 4.76-4.80 as I would have wanted).  I had one readd at 4.87, which I covered at 4.81, and then eventually it broke 4.80 and I covered everything else 4.66-4.75.  Didn't re-short again in the 4.90's, and of course they announce an offering after hours and it goes to 4.40, but oh well, it happens, I never hold anything overnight so I wouldn't have been in anyways.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 4.78 4.78 10042 -$0.00 -$32.86 -0.10%
  • Lessons:
  • Do not think, "oh, I'll just start shorting here and add higher", ONLY scale into PARABOLIC's, do not keep add, add, adding when it keeps holding higher lows and spiking to new highs
  • I should have taken off my first entry for breakeven and then waited until it was much higher to short (whole and half dollar marks can give you a good idea of key areas)
  • When in big size on a bad trade, always make sure to cover a lot of it into a pullback, I should have covered much more than 1k at 4.83-4.85, it bounced back up and came all the way back to 5 (which was about a $1500 dollar difference), and could have been a HUGE loss if it broke over 5 on the second test and went 5.10, 5.20, etc.


BGC
BGC had some pretty insane action and volume on buyout rumor news, I almost shorted it a few times for just 20-40 cent scalps on 300 shares but didn't get filled at times.  I watched the candle and volume at 15:12 and it was pretty insane, I'm still not sure what that was for, but it ended up bouncing back and then blowing past the previous HOD (might have trapped some shorts into that move).  I started shorting too early at 17.58, and added more higher ended up with 900 shares 17.80 average, and covered 500 at 17.67. then reshorted a ton into that next spike back up (same thing that ACAD and LL did earlier this month, parabolic move, quick one minute washout and then squeeze all the way back in one candle before starting to fade).  Now I had 1500 shares at 18ish average, had an order for 1k at 17.81 and got 400 filled, then put an order for 500 at 17.86, tried to cancel it when it looked really weak but got filled, then covered last 600 at 17.63.  "Shoulda woulda coulda" been like another another 50 cents on 1500 shares, but oh well, I was definitely in more size than I wanted to be, made a quick $500 bucks in 10 minutes, can't complain too much about that.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 17.98 17.72 2000 $0.26 $507.00 1.44%
  • Lessons:
  • Always be careful on buyout/news spiking stocks, you never know how far they can go
  • Try to cover ALL into that first quick pullback and then reshort on the next squeeze candle
  • Try to be more patient with a winner after that secondary squeeze candle and "stuff", usually it will fade off lower than that first initial 1-2 minute washout

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