Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Trades for March 18, 2015

Really frustrated with myself today.  The last two weeks, I would be up good in the first hour and then take it easy and not force that many trades.  This week I've been forcing stuff everyday and with way too much size, last two days I luckily survived and actually ended up making 1k each day.  Today, I got excited with NVGN with the big gap up and traded it pretty well, I was up $1000 in the first hour, then I almost turned it into a big losing day on SQM, but luckily survived that one with a somewhat reasonable loss.  Then I forced trades on UVXY with the FOMC meeting while still partially in SQM, and ended up giving back my whole day and more.  I had made around 2-3k on UVXY earlier back in December, but then gave back probably half of that trading it last month, so I stopped trading it, this was my first time trading it since then, and now I just gave the rest of that back and ruined my great day, will probably NEVER trade UVXY again.

I'm still having troubles with my self-control and discipline, for some reason, I just go nuts sometimes, and I make tons of emotional adds all in one spot with no plan, especially so far this week on MVIS and ANTH, and today on SQM and UVXY.  I'm still having my best month ever (even now only 2 and half weeks in), but I feel I haven't really changed much overall in my trading, I still add, add, add to losers and don't have a set risk and don't use hard stops.  I feel I have gotten lucky quite a few times, I have to start being more careful and make sure not to give it all back from a few bad trades.

Also, something to be aware of, is that my "running total" on shorts this month is +$8964, and my "running total" on longs this month is -$901 (after taking a 2.4k loss on LL on Friday and now 1.3k loss on UVXY today).  So, overall, that shows that I am much better at shorting and I should avoid going long as much in the future, gotta stick with what works and avoid what doesn't.




FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



NVGN
Unfortunately, I only got 1k shares in the first initial push, I wanted to scale in up to 5, up to like 4k shares, I got 1k top ticked at 3.78 and that was it, and covered it at 4.30, without any more adds. Then scaled in long and didn't sell for 5-10 cents when I had it, added more a bit lower and then sold it all into the push for a tiny profit.  Then shorted 1k at 4.31, then added another 1k at 4.33 and 1k at 4.34, covered 1k 4.21, 1k 4.16, tried to readd 1k at 4.24 and got 61 shares filled, and then covered the rest at 4.13.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 4.78 4.30 1000 $0.48 $480.00 10.04%
Short 4.32 4.17 3061 $0.16 $486.71 3.66%
Long 4.21 4.24 2800 $0.03 $90.00 0.76%
  • Lessons:
  • Always make sure to sell some into the bounce when trying to scalp 5-15 cents into washouts in the morning emotion of the first 30 minutes, I should have sold my long for 10 cents, and then re-bought again lower
  • Can short a small amount into a resistance area (4.25), with the plan to scale in more if needed, I missed the re-short into that push at 10:53 because I wanted it to go higher

MTSN
I put an order in at 3.92 to scale into the washout, willing to add more to 3.80's, got the bounce right away, but then big sellers came in and I just took the small profit, missed 20 cents (but as you see from the volume bar there was a lot of sellers there, the buyers were just stronger) 
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 3.92 4.00 1000 $0.08 $80.00 2.04%

SQM
Was trying to scalp the bounce, was wanting to start around 16.50, but then accidently put 17.51 on an order and got filled, 300 shares at 16.75 on my first entry (bad entry).  Emotionally added a ton into WAY TOO MUCH SIZE within a few minutes, 1700 shares 16.48 average and it hit 15 five minutes later ($2500 unrealized loss), it bounced back to 16.15ish and I sold 1000 shares into that, then readded 500 at 16.51 and sold the rest 15.98 and 16.13 (second sell right before it ramped to 17).  I shorted into that push, much too early and then added quite a bit to 1150 shares 16.75 average, had an order in at 16.61 to cover half and it hit 16.62 and didn't fill me.  There was lots of selling going on at 17, it quickly popped over it, and I added another 300 into that, now I had 1450 shares 16.86 average and it hit 16.69 and I had canceled my order at 16.78 and moved it to 16.67, and missed that also.  It held 16.80-17 for like 45 minutes on low volume which was super frustrating to watch and I was just looking to scale out into any washout 16.60-16.80.  It finally washed to 16.70 and I got half covered at 16.78, then readded at 16.97 but it still wouldn't breakdown and it finally broke over 17, I added once more into that push and then covered everything for a small loss.  Thankfully I wasn't too stubborn with it, 17 resistance (also where VWAP was), became support and it went onto to 18.70's. Just a really frustrating stock today, ended up losing on it both ways.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 16.23 16.06 2200 -$0.18 -$385.00 -1.08%
Short 16.93 16.98 2257 -$0.05 -$115.60 -0.31%
  • Lessons:
  • Try to join the trend on the short side on these "fade, fade, fade" charts when somewhat early
  • Be VERY, VERY careful ever dip buying these 20%+ down, red, fading charts, make sure to have a set risk
  • Do not emotionally add, add, add to a loser, all in one spot, have to always be thinking of a "max size", and always making "smart adds", all those adds so close together hardly changed my average at all, and it could have been a much bigger loss

UVXY
FOMC meeting today, I just jumped in randomly while not really focused on it (still being in SQM), trying to make some quick money back after all my frustration and losses with SQM.  Had 800 shares 16.95 average right away and it bounced to 17.02 but just super fast and I was trying to watch both stocks at the same time and missed it.  It soon hit 16.16, I didn't panic there because I knew it would bounce some, but I also had no more room to add because I was still in SQM.  It bounced from 16.16 to 16.74 and I sold HALF at 16.73.  I exited my SQM position so I had more room to add lower now, and for some reason, I ended up added another 1000 shares 16.34-16.43 which was a terrible spot. Now I had 1400 shares 16.53 average, I had potential exits THREE TIMES at 16.10-16.25, which would have been around a $400-600 dollar loss and would have still been slightly green on the day.
I had orders in at 16.33 and it didn't quite get there, and I was too stubborn to take the loss because I didn't want to give back my whole day, and I just hoped for a bounce, ended up losing an extra $600-700 more than I needed to and gave back MORE than my whole day.  I most likely will never trade UVXY again, if I do, it will be much much smaller size and always having a SET RISK and PLAN.  I put down a few lessons for trading UVXY which I have repeatedly told myself when I was trading it before, but didn't follow any of them today.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 16.62 15.91 1800 -$0.71 -$1,278.00 -4.28%
  • Lessons:
  • Do not emotionally add, add, add to a loser, all in one spot, have to always be thinking of a "max size", and always making "smart adds"
  • Be very careful trading anything with an ongoing outside influence (FOMC meeting)
  • Never trade UVXY long when SPY is green, even when SPY pulls, UVXY hardly bounces
  • Never fight the trend on UVXY/SPY in the last hour
  • Do not "hold and hope" on a long on a down-trending chart, washout scalps and higher lows ONLY, do not stay in when it's continuing to make lower highs and then breaks a key support level (15.90ish)

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