Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Trades for March 24, 2015

Well, that was pretty crazy, I think ORMP is the most insane stock I have ever traded, the way it doesn't breakdown on no volume and then spikes out of nowhere, and then fades all the way back again, then does that process over and over again.  I was up $1500 after the first hour and a half, made some more later on and I was up like $2000, then I "add, add, added" my way to two unrealized $1000 dollar losses and a $500 dollar unrealized loss and luckily all of them ended up being profitable in the end.  Was trading way too risky and way too big on ORMP today, gotta be more careful, I got extremely lucky THREE times, if just one of those went another 10, 20, 30 cents, I could have given back my whole day.  This is my best day of trading ever, my best before this was $2800 back in September with the RWLK IPO, and my second best is like $2000 which I did earlier this month.

The charts are a little messy, I have lots of tickets and lots of arrows, from some partial fills and from scaling in or out with 300-500 share orders sometimes.  I know I say this almost everyday, but I need to work on being more disciplined and having more control over my position sizes. Just think about how much I could have made if I had waited for GOOD entries and scaled in 1000-3000 shares with a good average and been more patient with it scaling out along the way for 30-50 cents, I would have made a lot more with a lot less risk involved than what I did, "add, add, adding" and making 5 cents on 6000 shares.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.



RADA
Wanted to short into any spike in the first few minutes, and scale into it with big size (3000-5000 shares), I got somewhat faked out because it pulled to 3.06 first and then pushed to 3.25, there was a solid wall at 3.25 but I didn't have any orders already in and was too slow to hit 3.20-3.24.  Then it washed to 2.95 in one candle, where I went long at 3.01, and then sold at 3.07 and "flipped short" to be short 1000 shares, which I covered at 2.91.  Then was waiting for a 3 push to reshort again and was going to go in 2-4k shares, but I only got the 1k at 3.04 and didn't hit 3.03 to get anymore adds, and covered it at 2.86.  Lastly, shorted 2.89 and covered 2.83 to focus on ORMP.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 3.01 3.07 900 $0.06 $54.00 1.99%
Short 3.07 2.91 1000 $0.16 $160.00 5.21%
Short 3.04 2.86 1000 $0.18 $180.00 5.92%
Short 2.89 2.83 1000 $0.06 $60.00 2.08%



ORMP
Didn't trade it at all around the first push, I didn't see it until 9:50, and Suretrader was having some issues and it was still showing it was halted and I couldn't trade it for at least 10 minutes after it reopened from the volatility halt.  I was waiting for the "next leg" up to scale in short, started a little bit early, but ended up with 1800 shares 7.80ish average, and covered around half (was trying to cover all) of it into the dip for 10-20 cents, then readded again into the 8 retest and covered all of it 7.51-7.67 from 7.86 new average.  Then started reshorting on pops on the ask, 500 shares at a time, covered half at 7.57 for like 18 cents to reduce some risk, then readded that cover and also a 275 partial fill, ended up with 1275 shares 7.75 average and covered 500 at 7.47 and 775 at 7.31.  Should have been re-shorting pops, since it was acting weak on the "over/under" VWAP, I tried to short at 10:50, I had an order in at 7.42, but the 7.40 bidder just got whacked back down and I missed it.  Shorted it again 7.16 to 6.92, I wanted 1000 shares but only got 100 filled on second order.  Then shorted it again with a fairly bad average 7.08, 1500 shares, and got half filled for a small profit and then only a 40 share partial fill on the second exit, and it ended up bouncing all the way back, and I re-added more into that push and then covered it all for a decent profit on the 7 dollar washout.  I knew not to short it when it was just low volume hanging around 6.80's, but I didn't go long either.  Then shorted into a small push with not the best average and made sure to cover ALL, since it seemed like it was going to go higher, but then started reshorting and "add, add, adding" at the worst time, convincing break of 7.20 (which was also where VWAP was) after 5 previous failed attempts.  Ended up with 4800 shares 7.29 average and it pulled to 7.27 and I didn't get any filled to reduce any risk, then readded another 1000, now I had 5800 shares 7.33 average and I covered 1000 shares for a loss at 7.41 and then the rest 7.18-7.31 for a tiny profit from my bad average.  Then reshorted at a terrible spot again 500 shares at 7.32 (it just held over/under VWAP 7.20 area and was perking off that level again and just slowly grinding up = NO REASON TO SHORT).  I said to myself that I was just going to "take it easy" and trade smaller on it now after surviving that first trade, but I didn't listen and I added way too much, way too fast around 7.37-7.44, then added more again higher.  This time, I ended up with 6000 shares 7.53 average, I covered 1k at 7.63, 2k at 7.56ish, and then the last 3k 7.42ish, got bailed out again.  I was at $2950ish on the day after all that and FNJN, and forced ANOTHER bad trade on this again, it was holding "over/under" VWAP and 7.20 again and started to perk off that level, I got a somewhat of a "bad fill" on that first entry, even though I put order at 7.31 (at that exact moment it looked weak for a second) but it just "thinned" right up and hit 7.50 in that candle, then I add, add, added too much, too soon again, had 3000 shares 7.46 average, and missed covering into the dip at 7.47 for breakevenish and it got that "secondary pop candle" to 7.70, I got one more add into that, new average 7.52 and I covered everything for a tiny profit again.  I was happy to have luckily survived THREE bad trades and still be up $3000 on the day so I just stayed away from it in the last 45 minutes which was good because it hardly pulled back much and is gaping up now.  
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short 7.84 7.63 2600 $0.21 $537.00 2.64%
Short 7.73 7.43 1775 $0.31 $544.25 3.96%
Short 7.16 6.92 600 $0.24 $141.00 3.28%
Short 7.15 7.01 3000 $0.14 $413.38 1.92%
Short 7.07 7.03 1000 $0.04 $40.00 0.57%
Short 7.33 7.27 5800 $0.06 $340.60 0.79%
Short 7.54 7.50 6000 $0.04 $266.40 0.59%
Short 7.52 7.49 4000 $0.02 $98.37 0.33%
  • Lessons:
  • Be careful of add, add, adding into that much size, have to make controllable, "smart" adds, and have a "max size" in mind
  • Do not short right at key "breakout" points such as 7.20 (which was resistance on multiple tests and also where VWAP was), focus on shorting parabolic's and "topping action" at whole and half dollar marks
  • NEVER short a "thin" stock that's ABOVE VWAP and is just slowly grinding up, ONLY short parabolic's and backside (under VWAP and making lower highs and fading)
  • Be aware of "over/under" VWAP (7.20ish level), where shorts can often get trapped thinking it's weak and then it RECLAIMS above VWAP and spikes higher again


FNJN
Saw the alert in chat at when it was still 2.35ish, and then it popped to 2.50 in one candle but there was a seller at 2.35 still (it got rejected back down on that same candle), but I didn't take it long.  I'm not very good at chasing these "news plays" long, I usually just wait for them to get really extended and then short them.  I had orders in the higher to short but missed those and didn't hit the bid 2.70's, did not expect that much pull, I scaled in long 2.50-2.44 and sold ALL into the immediate bounce 2.54ish, only 300 shares didn't fill, which I canceled order and got rid of at 2.51, just a quick scalp that was all I was going for, it was failing to bounce back over VWAP.
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Long 2.47 2.54 3000 $0.07 $221.03 2.99%


2 comments:

  1. Congrats on the day pnl, quick question are you chasing for quick scalps more than waiting for the right setups?

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, I'm not "chasing" for quick scalps, I'm REACTING to emotional candles usually, whether it's shorting a big spike or buying a big washout. Those are sort of my "setups" scalping big washouts or shorting big spikes, somewhat learned from this guy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5sb5H4lOU0). I don't really have "setups" like "bear flag breakdown", "bull flag breakout", "head and shoulders", etc, I just react to quick moves, and look at overall trend with higher lows or lower highs and use VWAP as an indicator of overall price trend. But yeah, I'm not that good with patience and "big picture" ideas, I usually hold a stock for 1-15 minutes, rarely am I holding for more than an hour. I am trying to get better with some more patience on "bigger picture" winning trades, but I still like the instant gratification of being "in and out" for quick profits. I scale in and out, often averaging in to a loser, which has worked somewhat so far this month, but I still need to be more careful with it, and be more controllable with the total size. Hope this answers your question

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