Thursday, August 6, 2015

Trades for August 6, 2015

Quick Update/Info for anyone checking out my blog (usually from twitter):

I posted all my trades everyday on this blog for three months (March, April, and May), then took a break for two months (June and July), I was thinking about starting it up again for August but I only posted four days worth and decided to stop doing it again.  The blog will always stay "up" for anyone to look at, but I will not be doing any new posts for a while unless I decide I want to start it up again.  I will try to post the occasional chart on twitter as I did on August 13 with EBIO, https://twitter.com/JGram135/status/631877082201456643.  Please email JGram135@hotmail.com if you have any questions about trading in general or about the trades I took, I will try to do my best to give brief explanations and share screenshots occasionally.  I'm no expert and I think there are lots of better traders out there to learn from, but I will try to do my best to help if I can.  I hope this explains things a bit, so you aren't looking at the blog and saying "when are you going to post again?" or "you're a little behind on the blog posts."  Thanks for reading and good luck out there.


Actual post from August 6th, 2015:

Awesome day, I actually "pulled the trigger" near the open and actually sized into a trade.  My main watches were WTW and GENE, looking for a "gap and crap" sort of play, I really tried to focus on those, as I thought those were the best opportunities that are my "style of trades" that I'm comfortable with.  GENE didn't really "pop" enough so I sort of chose WTW, looking for a fade similar to July 6th, 2015 with the gap up (that I also made some on).

I was away from the computer for quite a bit of the day and tried to force myself not to trade anything unless there was something "perfect", I came back around 2 PM and I could have easily nailed a 6.50-6.80 short on RCAP with the intraday "bad earnings" results and halt but didn't take it.  Oh well I guess, hard to really know what's going to happen, the only "edge" seems to be shorting these early on but even then, something crazy could always happen.  Best to short it early with small size and somewhat of an idea of risk or just avoid, pretty much the only decent way to play these it seems.  I didn't want to do anything stupid because I'm up quite a bit, didn't want to force anything, I always seem to lose on these "news plays" (I had some of my biggest losses on these last month) so I'm trying to have the discipline to not trade them for the most part.

Basically "three trades", and the last trade done at 11:20 AM, very stress-free day, biggest day in the last month other than my KONE and NYMX days,  I forced myself not to over-trade and give it back, quite happy with it.


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.  Using two monitors can be useful (one for the full-screen chart and one for the text/trades), that's how I personally do it whenever I am reviewing my old posts.




WTW
Gapped up from 4.46 to 5.60 on positive earnings but this stock is very "beat" and there's a lot of bagholders, last gap up on 07/06/2015 faded from the open and I was looking for more of the same.
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 5.42 5.16 8500 $0.26 $2,177.50 4.73%
The action was pretty jumpy in the first 5 minutes, ideally I would have gotten in 5.55-5.65 on the lower high with risk on HOD, but I sort of missed that/wasn't sure.  I "chased" (hit bid) 2k at 5.50, risk 5.60ish looking for a washout/fade on the 5.50 and VWAP rebreak, I covered 1k at 5.22, then readded much too early with more size on the bounce (especially 1k at 5.32) since my idea was working and had some small profits ("house's money"), looking for VWAP "over/under" to fail again and 5.20-5 (or lower) was my ideal target.  My readds weren't the best overall but it worked out okay, I had 6500 shares 5.44 average and I covered 5.23-5.06 with another 1k add at 5.21 in there.
  • Lessons:
  • Can cover ALL if you get a big washout like that, then just look to reshort again on a bounce
  • Don't be too quick to readd covers right after a big washout



CAPN
Had no news that I could find, I think it was just a total "short squeeze" on this "low float former runner", that's coming right off the very lows on the daily and off the 1 dollar whole number and also had SSR and was easy to borrow which helped add to the squeeze.  I was going to "bring the hammer" on the short (5-10k shares) at 3-3.20 (because I can use more size above 3, there are margin limits under 3 with Suretrader), I had one order waiting at 3.02 for 1k but the top was 2.98 unfortunately and I didn't take it 2.90's/2.80's/2.70's before the big washout.
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Long 2.42 2.51 5300 $0.09 $478.50 3.73%
Risk was 2.35-2.40 (VWAP was 2.36), initially 2.45 avg 3.3k shares, sold 2k 2.50ish when it still seemed weak and rebought those at 2.36-2.37 looking for 2.40 reclaim, then 2.50 reclaim and ideally 2.60+ (held VWAP and has SSR on and is a "crowded short", these can really bounce/squeeze back up, as I usually experience when "stuck" on the short side).  I ended up selling it all in the 2.50's a few minutes before it popped to 2.60's, but I just didn't like how long it was taking and thought it might snap back to 2.40-2.45 with one "SSR candle", I would rather take 10-15 cents profit than have one candle bring it back to my average.

Short 2.68 2.35 3100 $0.33 $1,012.50 12.19%
Risk was 2.70ish, I was trying to be "early", scaling in on "pops" looking for the "uptrend break" (I had that trend-line drawn on there in real-time) and 2.50 retest and break and also the 2.40 (around VWAP), retest and break.  Worked out perfectly, covered 2.1k shares a bit early around 2.40 and 500 at 2.30, 500 at 2.20.  
  

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Trades for August 5, 2015

Decent day, gave back some doing a stupid trade on ENPH for no reason, really thought we could get a little fade off of 6.90-6.95 but it just kept grinding, stopped out on some and made a little on some.  

I'm a bit frustrated with LL, I feel like I had the exact right idea but just didn't have the right execution/risk management, I ended up making $350, with being down $1500ish unrealized at the highs (I have it hidden but I still have an idea of what it was), and then "missing" 2-4k in profits had I held for a few more hours.

FNJN, BIOC, and EXEL were "easy fades" off the open but I was too busy with LL to trade them, should have maybe focused on the "easy plays" and waited for LL to setup a bit more (wait to see what it does the first 5-15 minutes at least, not jumping in the first minute when I'm unsure).


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.  Using two monitors can be useful (one for the full-screen chart and one for the text/trades), that's how I personally do it whenever I am reviewing my old posts.




LL
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 15.95 15.81 2600 $0.13 $350.00 0.84%
I had not much plan or idea for my risk on this trade, the result sort of speaks for itself, but still could have been a lot worse.  I started into the "dollar pop" candle at 9:31, 500 shares at 15.49 (top was 15.50), it came down to 15.08, but I couldn't get filled anywhere around there for a quick scalp, I really thought about stopping out for breakevenish if it started coming back up, but took the lazy, "oh, I can just add more" approach, I ended up with 1800 shares 15.80's average and it was hanging around 16 and holding.  It ripped to 16.60's for a second but then came back to 15.67-15.70 (VWAP was 15.56ish).  I was hoping that was "it" and it would break below VWAP, so I only covered half, then it popped right back to 16.50's in a few candles somewhat because of SSR, and I had readded my covers (somewhat early) to have 1700 shares 16ish average.  It dipped to 16.10-16.20 twice but I didn't take it and it popped right back up each time with SSR, it then ripped to 16.80's but was rejected there and faded back to 15.80's eventually, where I preceded to cover the rest, thinking that VWAP "over/under" would hold and 16 may reclaim and act as support and not wanting to regret only covering some as I did before.  I was sort of right initially that it would reclaim 16 but it still couldn't really hold above it at all and 16.10 acted as a top and it faded back below VWAP (15.87), I figured it was now "done" (should fade much lower/all day) but I didn't want to get back in with a "chase entry" and get "whipsawed".  Also missed the 15.30 bounce at 11:05 when I was still in ITEK.
  • Lessons: 
  • Make sure to cover all when you know your entry isn't very good, don't get too greedy
  • Make sure to cover ALL when VWAP holds and it's still "early" (first 15-30 minutes), ESPECIALLY with SSR on, it can pop right back up VERY quickly in 1-2 candles
  • Don't be "afraid" to get back in if the stock sets up again, even if it's right where you covered or even lower, don't be emotional about it, but if the set up is there and you have a planned risk, go for it (such an easy short 15.70-15.90, risk on 16-16.10 on the convincing VWAP break and the failure to hold the 16 dollar whole number)


ITEK

Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 14.82 14.66 1000 $0.17 $165.50 1.12%
Risk 15ish but should have taken my 30 cents I had on the next candle when 14.50 was holding, rather than holding it for so long.  I covered half 14.57 and half 14.74 just in case it wanted to pop to 14.80-15+, but reshorted right after at 14.74 when it was failing.

Short 14.74 14.33 1000 $0.41 $413.00 2.80%
Risk 14.80-14.90, was expecting this to be the top and figured 14.50 would break if it retested there, it did exactly what I wanted and I took the profits, I didn't want to stick around in "low volume chop" with a 10+ cent spread.



NTLS 
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 7.48 7.28 500 $0.20 $100.00 2.67%
Risk 7.50-7.75, only 500 shares, was willing to scale in but got the exact top, took quick profits because the stock is pretty "thin".



EFOI
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 13.40 12.95 300 $0.45 $135.00 3.36%
Risk 13.50-14, only 300 shares was willing to scale in, entry was near the top and took quick profits because the stock is very "thin" (20-30 cent spread).



ENPH
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 6.97 7.00 4500 -$0.03 -$128.00 -0.41%
Risk was 7 "over/under" but I poorly managed it by ADDING MORE when it was just grinding which made it harder to stop out right around 7 (average was 6.91ish), I was "holding and hoping" for a quick pull and possible trend change.  Ended up covering half (2250 shares) at 7.06, then 1500 shares 6.91-6.94 and accidentally held 750 into afterhours, which I covered at 6.98, it could gap down but there's hardly any volume afterhours and I just don't like holding things overnight and never do.
  • Lessons:
  • Work on playing the "long side" more often, I saw it on my HOD list on the perk around 2:30 and watched this whole move without taking a trade on it, it's one of those trades where there isn't really much downside, it's been consolidating 6.20-6.30 all day (and also a fairly "beat" daily chart), you can go long 6.40-6.50 with risk on 6.30-6.40 looking for a move like this (and slowly move up your mental/hard stop as it goes)
  • There's no reason to short a "slow grind above VWAP", always wait for a parabolic, or possibly a lower high after a dip with a set risk, just stay away from the "slow grind" like this
  • If you are going to add at all, only do it when it starts doing what you thought, but ideally just one entry, 1-2 exits if you are trading a "subpar" setup (adding to a winner may also hurt you if the setup isn't great)
  • Increasing size when it's NOT WORKING makes it much harder to respect your risk/stop, try to stay away from doing this
  • Always try to avoid "fighting the trend" in the last hour, unless it's a clear "premature parabolic move" that you are very confident in, usually around 3:30 EST 


Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Trades for August 4, 2015

Pretty slow day, I'm very "trigger shy" off the open lately, I had my new best day a week ago but since then, each day has mostly been "scratch", make some here, lose some there and finishing about the same as I started (usually giving back gains that I was up early on).

I'm trying to just be green everyday regardless of how much it is and being more satisfied with 500 bucks, 1000 bucks, etc., and trying to control risk and plan out my trades much better as I mentioned on my blog post yesterday.

The "numbers" may not be all the "big"/exciting starting out, I'm not really trading all that big of size as of right now (depends on the setup though) and I'm somewhat just "experimenting" with different things and focusing on daily consistency as I mentioned.    

The blog format will be a little bit different, I am going to try to incorporate an idea of my risk on each trade to really demonstrate my thinking behind the trades and really help me think more about what my plan is and sticking to it.  I am just going to put the actual number but sometimes it's "over/under" risk and sometimes exact I guess.  I may be taking breakevenish before it gets to my risk area if I don't really like what it's doing.  Some of the "reactive stuff" off the open and all the scaling in and out (but I'm trying to do less scaling in and out during the day) may not totally have an idea of risk but I will try to incorporate it when I can and also incorporate hard stops when I can.

I'm am going to try doing the blog for a month or a few weeks and see how things go, and decide if I want to keep doing it or not.
     
I was really hoping for a great setup on OGEN today with a gap up 3.20-3.40 and a 3.50+ push to short, that was the "ideal setup" I was hoping for, but that never happened with the gap down and weak open and low volume today.

I missed an "easy trade" on GBIM but the volume wasn't that great (and it was "thinly traded" with a 10 cent spread, etc.) and I had missed some of my entries around 3.50-3.60 (never got where I was waiting/wanting) and didn't take it on the CONVINCING VWAP break at around 10:00 (great setup with risk on the previous top 3.25-3.28).  Also missed my fills on EXEL on the "triple top" in the morning for a short.  Those were two of the best setups today, also LXRX short would have been great with patience but I covered way too early for no real reason.  


FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.  Using two monitors can be useful (one for the full-screen chart and one for the text/trades), that's how I personally do it whenever I am reviewing my old posts.




LXRX
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short13.6613.661000-$0.00-$2.96-0.02%
Risk 13.80 (high from yesterday) but took a tiny loss (only got a partial fill) when it still seemed strong, ended up covering the rest for breakeven right as it washed out 20 cents

Long 13.42 13.44 1500 $0.01 $18.50 0.09%
Risk VWAP "over/under" (13.41), sold breakeven when it seemed weak and couldn't reclaim 13.50.

Short 13.44 13.25 1000 $0.19 $190.00 1.41%
Risk 13.50ish (reclaim), reason for short was convincing VWAP break after failing to hold green, covered too early and never got back in on pops, could have been more more patient or gotten back in.

Long 12.17 12.26 3210 $0.10 $305.70 0.78%
Risk 12.06 (LOD), was trying to sell at least some for a small profit in the 12.20's when it couldn't get over 12.30 but there seems to be an issue since last week with SSR and hitting the bid on longs (it doesn't let you hit the bid even if it's a long, it treats it as a short).  There wasn't much volume and SSR was annoying, so I ended up selling it all for a small profit into strength, idea was right on the bounce off 12 but ended up selling too early overall but low volume grinds aren't really my thing, I hate trading them.

Short 12.58 12.52 50 $0.06 $3.00 0.48%
Risk 12.60ish, only got 50 shares so I covered for 6 cents and waited for higher.

Short 12.69 12.48 500 $0.21 $105.00 1.65%
Risk 12.75-12.90 (willing to add another 500 shares possibly), covered into the washout below 12.50 thinking it might try to reclaim 12.50 and "grind" up again as it did.  
  • Lessons:
  • Try to be very patient on a short on "Day 2" when the stock failed to hold green on the day (after a "r/g push") and now broke below VWAP, ideal target is LOD's from the morning and possibly even more if that can't act as support
  • Don't be afraid to "short a pop" on a downtrend like this, it's never "fallen too much", just control your risk and be patient (possibly using manual hard stops as it continues to fall), and pay attention to how it reacts at whole and half dollar marks




TNET
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short 17.18 16.93 800 $0.25 $201.00 1.46%
Risk 17.25ish (scaling into the whole number parabolic with SSR on), ideal goal was 16.80's but ended up covering some of it before that.  

 
    

Monday, August 3, 2015

Focusing on Consistency and Your "Niche"

After a two month break from the blog, I have decided to start it up again for this month and see how things go (I am going to be gone for most of the day today, so I won't be posting today, it will be starting tomorrow, August 4th).  I hope that it can greatly help my trading again as I did for me when I first started it in March.  Before I continue posting, I want to give a bit of a recap of the last three months and talk about how my trading has been and also the things I want to implement this month to improve my trading.

I have not been happy with with all the "big PnL swings" that I've experienced in May, June, and July.  Despite posting many huge green days the past three months, my overall gains on a monthly basis have ended up being less than my initial two months doing the blog (March and April) where I was trading a lot smaller and more consistent overall because I never had those 5k, 10k, 10k+ red days that set me so far back.  The last three months, I've basically been on an endless cycle of making money for a week or two and giving it back in a day or two, just as I had been for the first six months of my trading until I started the blog in March.

In the first two weeks of June and July, I was up quite a lot, then both times, the following week, I had two really big losing days and I pretty much gave it all back, and ended up finishing out each month with not a whole lot to show for considering "where I was" at one point.  

This constant struggle to "get back to where I was" can really take a major toll on your overall psychology and can have a major impact in your trading, then one thing can lead to another and you end up digging yourself an even deeper hole.  I think it's really important to develop better trading processes and rules for LONGTERM success in trading.  I feel that my sort of "reactive" method of trading and scaling in and out without any real set rules will continue to give me very mixed results as I have had the last three months.  I'm basically "one bad trade" away from losing a week or a month of gains, and that's not really any way to trade, and it's very difficult to accumulate those gains when I take a loss every 1-2 weeks that sets me right back where I started.  

At the start of July, I told myself it was a "fresh start" and I was to FOCUS ON DAILY CONSISTENCY, even though I was still far off from "where I was" in the middle of June.  This worked for a few weeks and I was fairly consistent overall and had a fairly great month going only a few weeks in.  Then I took a 3k hit on VLTC, that wasn't too bad, and could have been worse, and I made it right back in the next few days.  Then came a -6k+ loss on LOCK, that was a little harder to make up for, and I could already feel myself trading differently because of it, and not being happy with 1000 in a day, and forcing things too much and trading a lot more emotionally than I should be, this lead to another -6k+ day on ITEK two days later, and just like that, I had almost given back almost my whole month in one week of trading from two bad trades.  The month finished out okay, but really, after all the fees, I was up nearly the same in the first two days as what I finished at.

This last month, I have "given back" insane amounts of my morning profits either midday or ESPECIALLY in the last hour on stupid things that I really have "no edge" like UVXY, LOCK, FELE, etc.  There were a few days where I just took my $1000 bucks and left for the day and those were great, but I still have that massive "overtrader/gambler" tendency in me and I find it very hard to just leave for the day, I'm always not wanting to miss opportunities.  This leads to me entering "sub-par" setups midday/end of day, trying to make a "quick buck".  As long as you have a PLAN and a SET RISK and SMALLER SIZE, there's nothing wrong with taking more trades in a day, but it's when you have NO PLAN, and are careless with size, "oh, I'll just add a little", then it goes a little bit more, "oh, I'll just add a little more", and before you know it, you are in way too big on some random trade and you just gave back most of your day (that's sort of how it has been for me anyways).

The point is, trading needs to be FOCUSED ON LONGTERM SUCCESS, not trying for those "huge gains" everyday and forcing things when the opportunities just aren't there.  There will be a handful of GOLDEN opportunities every month to take advantage of, some from this month were: TLOG, KONE, OHRP, MNOV, NYMX, VLTC (long and short), ITEK (long and short).  These are the plays where you can use more size (when you are extremely confident in the setups) and keep "hammering it" with the "houses money" and trying to be patient with a winner, etc.  Really trying to focus on these "NICHE SETUPS" as much as possible and trying to trade much smaller on everything else is really the key to success I feel.  What happens when the next "golden opportunity" comes and you just lost a large portion of your account the day before on some random trade?  You may not have the BP and/or the confidence to be able to take advantage of the opportunity to the fullest.  This "niche" is different for everyone, and takes time and experience for all new trader's to "find it", but once you do, it's about REALLY FOCUSING on it and trying to avoid everything else (or at least trading a lot smaller on everything else).  This is something I still majorly need to work on and hope to improve for August and for the months to come.


My new rules/plans for the month of August (for now, I may make adjustments later in the month):
  • 2k max loss set into my account so I can only give back 1-2 days, not a week or more which ends up creating a "slump" of emotional "get back" trading (I have this set into my account but I am not entirely sure how it works yet)
  • Smaller size on anything midday/last hour as to not give back my earlier profits (as I have done so, so many times this month and other months) (1-3 entries and 1-3 exits, no "add, add, adding", have a SET RISK and PLAN in mind ALWAYS)
  • Trying to avoid the "news plays" as much as possible (LOCK, FELE, etc.), SET RISK and SMALLER SIZE ONLY if I'm going to trade it at all (no trying to catch the bottom/short the top/top of the bounce)
  • NEVER BEING STUBBORN PAST 10:30-11 AM, if the stock has RECLAIMED VWAP at this time, there is a good chance it will continue much higher throughout the day (be long biased and never be "stuck short"), once it breaks HOD, it's usually "off to the races", like ITEK "day one" and VLTC "day two".  A convincing VWAP reclaim is WHERE TO BE stopping out on a short (this would have saved me on PTBI, SGYP, ITEK, and others) (use hard stops if needed, to stop out on these "crossovers")
  • Being extremely careful on the short side on "Day One", where the stock is trading at 10:30-11 AM is a usually a good indication of which direction it will continue the rest of the day (TLOG and MNOV, well below VWAP, near LOD's, they faded the rest of the day) (PTBI, SGYP, ITEK, had reclaimed VWAP and were trading in the top 25-50% of the trading range, they continued much higher throughout the day)
  • Implementing hard stops into my trading, on anything midday as much as possible, and also when trying to "ride a winner" (or to not turn a winner into a loser, hard stop at breakeven, etc.), manually moving a hard stop down so that you "lock it in" if support is reclaimed, etc. (this is to help with my habit of readding more shares "trying to make it work" if I missed covering into a dip and it pops right back up, it's often those readds that really get me into trouble, when I ruin my average then end up turning a nice winning trade into a big losing trade)
  • Trying not to "top tick" parabolic's and "bottom tick" washout's as much, morning emotion is still okay (because that's usually where I am the best at/make the most), but anything after that, try to wait for the trade to set up with more of a set risk with a lower high for a short or a higher low for a long
  • Paying attention to where VWAP is after the first 1-2 hours and really respecting it as your bias (more long biased above, more short biased below)   

Those are the things that I am implementing for this next month and I hope to be able to achieve consistency on a LONGTERM BASIS (monthly/yearly), rather than having a bunch of huge days but ending up with not much to show for at the end of the month.  Consistent green days really do add up.  500/day = 10k/month, 1000/day = 20k/month, 2000/day = 40k/month.  My best month is still 19k in April even with having a lot of 3-8k DAYS throughout the last 3 months, because I haven't been able to take a small loss or a small losing day, most of the time, I ended up giving back a week or more in one day, and taking a big hit to my confidence, my psychology, and my account in the process.  I'm going to try to be green every single day as much as possible, even if it's $500 bucks or whatever, it doesn't matter, I'm really trying to prevent all the "give backs" by using much smaller sizes and set risk on any trades after the first few hours, and also being able to "leave for the day" and protecting what I've got, sure I may miss some opportunities but it's literally IMPOSSIBLE to give back what I've already got (I think if I left after the first 2 hours everyday this month, my month would have been 3-4 times more profitable).    


Anyways, long story short, trading is all about focusing on LONGTERM CONSISTENCY and FINDING YOUR NICHE and FOCUSING ON IT.

Here is a great post from Nikkos (https://twitter.com/Nikkorico_) about this topic:

Here is a great post from Nate (https://twitter.com/InvestorsLive) about this topic:

Here is a great post from Alex (https://twitter.com/AT09_Trader) about this topic:

Here is an AMAZING SPEECH from Michail Shadkin talking about "after 11 AM rules", focusing on "golden setups", and other extremely useful trading information: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAStJmFLM60

These guys, Brandon (https://twitter.com/crawfish_poboy) and Christian (https://twitter.com/stock_choices) are "masters of consistency" I feel.  Sure, they may not post that "massive day" all that often, but they really understand what consistency is, and their results continue to show, month in, month out, it's really amazing what 1-3k/day can do, when you are green almost every single day.  

I hope you found this post helpful, I really wanted to express some of my thoughts on my trading the last three months and about these topics.  I will be posting daily on the blog again for the month of August, with the hope that it will once again bring me more accountability and consistency in my trading, and also help with my "over-trading" and "give back" struggles recently.      

Friday, May 29, 2015

Trading Recap for May, 2015

Well, that was an eventful month, I allowed my account to build to/stay a bit bigger than usual a few times and I traded a bit bigger and that didn't really work very well overall, especially when I was extremely stubborn and had even more size than usual.  I had some big green days (beat my old "record" of 3.6k four times) but had even bigger red days (beat my old "record" of -6k back in September, three times, and beat it by a lot).  I also had my two best weeks ever (10.2k and 11.5k), but I also had two of my worst weeks ever (-7.8k and -6.9k).  Very "choppy" overall, lots of ups and downs, I was down as much as 12k at one point and up as much as 13k at one point and even more ups and downs in between all of that.  I will upload my trades for this month to "Profit.ly" once today's trades are "up-loadable", either on the weekend on next week, and then I will continue uploading either at the end of each month or at the end of each week, it's not really a big deal to me but I just like to see the "overall chart", that's the main reason why I'm posting my trades there.    

The total for the entire month is about $7575, with about $2050 in commissions (after ECN rebates) (a little bit more in fees than I had for the last two months because of trading a bit more and not adding liquidity quite as much), making the net total about $5525.  I had only four red days for the month but I let my losses spin way out of control and almost blew up everything that I had in my account a few times (with wiring some out and some back in throughout the month), my four red days amounted to 37k in losses, which is absolutely insane.

I definitely need to do much better with my overall risk management and position sizing, and method of trading for next month.  Possibly having an "oh shit" number and/or set max losses set into my account/platform, or possibly using hard stops and/or having more set risk/plan, I'm not 100% sure what I'm going to do yet, but at the very least, I'm going to be super diligent/"strict" with my wiring out process and making sure I send them in frequently enough and making sure they process them right away and/or making sure I don't use the extra buying power that I still have if I know it's "too much".  It's better to pay an extra $50 wire out fee by wiring out 2-2.5k at a time than trying to wait until I want to wire out 5k but then having "too much" BP and not having the self-control/discipline not to use it, and "blowing up" most of my account and ending up wiring some money in instead of out, that's basically what happened three times this month.  Obviously, I still need to get better at controlling my position sizes on my own, but this "constantly wiring out" process worked well for me in March and April.  This month, I let my account get "too big" three times and I was still undisciplined/stubborn and I got the wrong side of really big movers (PTBI, PBMD, VBLT) and paid the price for it.    

Feel free to "skim through" as much as you would like on this, there is quite a bit of text and some of it is just repeated from previous posts.


Here is a look at the PnL for each day of the month (before commissions):


Week 1 Week 2
May 1 $508.48 May 4 $2,584.89
Total $508.48 May 5 -$11,468.48
May 6 -$2,967.63
May 7 $816.30
May 8 $3,224.98
Total -$7,809.94
Week 3 Week 4
May 11 $3,125.20 May 18 $4,662.31
May 12 $1,947.03 May 19 $2,167.50
May 13 $1,790.26 May 20 -$8,087.50
May 14 $1,132.63 May 21 $8,260.45
May 15 $2,260.15 May 22 $4,548.14
Total $10,255.27 Total $11,550.90
Week 5
May 26 -$14,605.13
May 27 $2,672.77
May 28 $480.24
May 29 $4,532.85
Total -$6,919.27
Total Red Days = 4 Avg Red Day =  -$9,282.19
Total Green Days = 16 Avg Green Day =  $2,794.64

I had a total of 16 green days and 4 red days, with the average green day being $2,794.64 and the average red day being $9,285.19.  If you take a look at my last two monthly recaps (http://jgramtrades.blogspot.ca/2015/03/trading-recap-for-march-2015.html, http://jgramtrades.blogspot.ca/2015/04/trading-recap-for-april-2015.html), I had about 2x as many green days as red days, this month I had 4x as many green days as red days, but the DIFFERENCE was that the two last months my average red day was ABOUT HALF of my average green day, this month my average red day was over THREE TIMES as much as my average green day.  That was what prevented this month from being that great, not being able to take a small red day and basically turning it into an "account blow up" each time.



I still trade the same way as I have been the last two months, for the most part, but I want to gradually get better at focusing on "bigger moves" and less "adding to a loser".  Because of the way I trade, often averaging into losers, I have a fairly high "win rate" but my losses are often a lot bigger than my gains, the averages get skewed from a few really big losses (especially this month with my absolutely insane losses).  It looks really, really bad how much bigger my average losses are than my average gain (especially this month), but that's just how I trade (at least for now, like I said I want to gradually focus on "bigger moves" and less "add, add, adding"), lots of small gains adding up and trying to hardly ever "lose", and sometimes I'm "dead wrong" or it never "comes back" and I take a big loss (it's not a very good way to trade really, this "strategy" definitely worked a lot better for me in March and April than it did this month, my huge losses this month were an example of what can happen when you trade like this and it doesn't work very well).

FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out.  The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits.  The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc).  Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits.

Here is a look at all of my shorts with the total PnL being $4,751.32 from 74 total trades with 65 "wins" and 9 losses (87.94%) with an average gain of $687.71 and the average loss of $4,438.89:

1-May-15 TROV Short 8.85 8.71 5000 $0.15 $744.00 1.68%
4-May-15 CYTR Short 4.87 4.72 6800 $0.15 $1,048.00 3.16%
4-May-15 PTBI Short 4.47 4.23 1900 $0.24 $459.00 5.40%
5-May-15 PTBI Short 4.60 4.94 40800 -$0.33 -$13,567.88 -7.22%
5-May-15 PTBI Short 7.35 6.83 4165 $0.52 $2,164.55 7.07%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 9.82 9.70 7800 $0.12 $948.11 1.24%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 9.99 10.05 4400 -$0.05 -$226.00 -0.51%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 9.74 10.08 2800 -$0.34 -$952.00 -3.49%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 9.92 9.38 650 $0.54 $351.00 5.44%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 9.17 8.96 2400 $0.21 $506.00 2.30%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 8.69 8.55 1425 $0.14 $199.50 1.61%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 8.80 8.62 1000 $0.18 $180.00 2.05%
6-May-15 PTBI Short 8.90 8.78 2700 $0.12 $323.00 1.34%
6-May-15 TLOG Short 3.07 2.80 1743 $0.28 $483.46 9.02%
8-May-15 CALA Short 3.07 2.80 1744 $0.28 $483.74 9.02%
9-May-15 CALA Short 12.86 12.75 2900 $0.10 $304.00 0.82%
9-May-15 CALA Short 13.50 13.36 5200 $0.14 $722.15 1.03%
12-May-15 PTIE Short 3.50 3.37 15000 $0.13 $1,976.00 3.76%
13-May-15 VGGL Short 3.31 3.21 250 $0.10 $25.00 3.02%
13-May-15 VGGL Short 3.35 3.26 1235 $0.09 $106.45 2.58%
13-May-15 VGGL Short 3.52 3.46 18000 $0.05 $984.00 1.56%
13-May-15 VGGL Short 3.62 3.55 2000 $0.07 $140.00 1.93%
13-May-15 GIGA Short 2.76 2.76 6200 $0.00 $23.56 0.14%
13-May-15 VBLT Short 6.30 6.21 9000 $0.09 $771.10 1.36%
13-May-15 VBLT Short 5.80 5.71 2000 $0.09 $188.55 1.63%
13-May-15 VBLT Short 5.79 5.69 6690 $0.10 $648.04 1.67%
13-May-15 VBLT Short 6.11 5.99 7498 $0.12 $892.44 1.95%
13-May-15 VBLT Short 6.18 6.35 7925 -$0.16 -$1,303.50 -2.66%
14-May-15 VBLT Short 6.23 6.00 3100 $0.23 $716.00 3.71%
14-May-15 BSQR Short 6.14 5.84 3700 $0.30 $1,099.00 4.84%
18-May-15 EBIO Short 3.43 3.32 26100 $0.12 $3,068.19 3.42%
18-May-15 EBIO Short 3.52 3.42 6000 $0.10 $601.11 2.84%
18-May-15 EBIO Short 3.69 3.60 5000 $0.09 $448.00 2.43%
18-May-15 LTBR Short 2.77 2.50 2000 $0.27 $540.00 9.75%
19-May-15 GIGA Short 3.09 2.96 4000 $0.13 $530.00 4.29%
19-May-15 GIGA Short 3.05 2.97 3100 $0.08 $236.00 2.50%
19-May-15 AMCN Short 6.00 5.89 4500 $0.11 $487.50 1.81%
19-May-15 AMCN Short 6.25 6.26 8300 -$0.01 -$51.00 -0.10%
19-May-15 PBMD Short 1.61 1.56 4200 $0.05 $229.00 3.38%
19-May-15 PBMD Short 2.43 2.31 2000 $0.12 $246.00 5.06%
20-May-15 PBMD Short 3.10 4.50 8200 -$1.40 -$11,458.00 -45.05%
20-May-15 ISR Short 3.19 3.05 24000 $0.14 $3,406.50 4.45%
21-May-15 ISR Short 3.71 3.54 8000 $0.18 $1,410.00 4.75%
21-May-15 ISR Short 3.35 3.10 4000 $0.24 $970.00 7.25%
21-May-15 ISR Short 3.21 3.11 7000 $0.10 $680.00 3.03%
21-May-15 AVEO Short 3.34 3.12 7000 $0.22 $1,540.00 6.59%
21-May-15 AVEO Short 2.85 2.70 5400 $0.14 $775.80 5.05%
21-May-15 VLTC Short 8.46 8.34 9000 $0.12 $1,116.00 1.47%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 3.41 3.24 4000 $0.17 $680.00 4.99%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 3.17 3.08 100 $0.09 $9.00 2.84%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 3.25 3.08 4305 $0.16 $703.82 5.03%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 3.04 2.94 2300 $0.10 $226.00 3.23%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 2.98 2.95 10400 $0.03 $302.32 0.98%
22-May-15 ONTY Short 2.98 2.98 2000 $0.00 $0.00 0.00%
22-May-15 PBIB Short 3.30 2.92 500 $0.38 $190.00 11.52%
22-May-15 DGX Short 87.82 85.56 600 $2.26 $1,355.00 2.57%
26-May-15 ONTY Short 3.31 3.28 9500 $0.03 $293.00 0.93%
26-May-15 VBLT Short 6.41 7.07 18500 -$0.66 -$12,274.13 -10.36%
26-May-15 ATNM Short 3.77 3.67 2200 $0.09 $208.00 2.51%
27-May-15 CBLI Short 4.10 3.74 2000 $0.36 $720.00 8.78%
27-May-15 CBLI Short 3.83 3.58 479 $0.25 $119.75 6.53%
27-May-15 GBSN Short 4.51 4.35 9800 $0.16 $1,553.30 3.52%
27-May-15 GBSN Short 4.22 4.12 11200 $0.10 $1,074.00 2.27%
27-May-15 GBSN Short 4.13 4.07 2000 $0.07 $130.00 1.57%
27-May-15 EOX Short 8.72 8.59 1000 $0.13 $130.00 1.49%
27-May-15 DCTH Short 1.66 1.57 1000 $0.09 $90.00 5.42%
28-May-15 ONTY Short 3.46 3.41 551 $0.05 $27.55 1.45%
28-May-15 AMRN Short 2.48 2.54 1700 -$0.06 -$97.50 -2.31%
29-May-15 TBIO Short 3.26 3.06 11000 $0.19 $2,099.84 5.86%
29-May-15 TBIO Short 3.10 2.95 5100 $0.16 $807.90 5.10%
29-May-15 TBIO Short 3.07 3.01 12600 $0.07 $861.00 2.22%
29-May-15 TBIO Short 2.96 2.97 2000 -$0.01 -$20.00 -0.34%
29-May-15 HRTX Short 20.11 19.96 400 $0.15 $60.00 0.75%
29-May-15 ATNM Short 4.06 3.96 3000 $0.10 $290.11 2.38%

Here is a look at all of my longs with the total PnL being $3,428.67 from 97 total trades with 81 "wins" and 16 losses (83.51%) with an average gain of $216.27 and the average loss of $880.57:
1-May-15 VLTC Long 11.73 11.73 5300 $0.01 $34.00 0.05%
1-May-15 VLTC Long 10.47 10.66 2750 $0.19 $527.00 1.83%
1-May-15 VLTC Long 10.58 10.47 7537 -$0.11 -$797.41 -1.00%
4-May-15 ICLD Long 3.14 3.19 19199 $0.05 $867.89 1.44%
4-May-15 CLNE Long 9.29 9.40 2000 $0.11 $210.00 1.13%
5-May-15 PTBI Long 6.69 6.63 1035 -$0.06 -$65.15 -0.94%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 9.31 9.40 1000 $0.09 $90.00 0.97%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 9.42 9.71 200 $0.29 $58.00 3.08%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 9.69 9.81 800 $0.12 $96.00 1.24%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 9.70 8.78 6200 -$0.92 -$5,678.09 -9.44%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 8.69 8.78 5000 $0.09 $437.00 1.01%
6-May-15 PTBI Long 8.46 8.55 2000 $0.09 $181.00 1.07%
7-May-15 PTBI Long 9.78 9.92 1000 $0.14 $140.00 1.43%
7-May-15 PTBI Long 9.17 9.31 500 $0.14 $70.00 1.53%
7-May-15 PTBI Long 8.94 9.14 100 $0.20 $20.00 2.24%
7-May-15 PTBI Long 7.85 8.07 1000 $0.22 $220.00 2.80%
7-May-15 PTBI Long 7.45 7.48 5700 $0.03 $196.00 0.46%
7-May-15 VLTC Long 10.29 10.10 4000 -$0.20 -$780.20 -1.90%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 3.78 3.88 4000 $0.10 $390.00 2.58%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 5.24 5.34 2000 $0.10 $207.00 1.98%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 5.86 5.91 4000 $0.05 $203.50 0.87%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 5.45 5.45 5500 -$0.00 -$5.00 -0.02%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 5.20 5.25 2000 $0.05 $100.00 0.96%
7-May-15 GEVO Long 4.78 4.88 550 $0.10 $55.00 2.09%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 6.64 6.82 2000 $0.19 $370.00 2.79%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 6.65 6.75 2000 $0.10 $200.00 1.50%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 6.09 6.23 5500 $0.14 $780.00 2.33%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 5.94 6.00 1000 $0.06 $60.00 1.01%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 5.77 5.86 987 $0.09 $88.83 1.56%
8-May-15 GEVO Long 5.53 5.60 7900 $0.06 $490.00 1.12%
8-May-15 ICLD Long 3.72 3.77 1100 $0.05 $60.00 1.47%
8-May-15 ICLD Long 4.14 4.21 1000 $0.07 $70.00 1.69%
8-May-15 CALA Long 12.58 12.74 500 $0.16 $80.00 1.27%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.20 3.24 4000 $0.04 $154.00 1.20%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.88 3.93 9100 $0.06 $529.00 1.50%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.78 3.84 2000 $0.06 $120.00 1.59%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.83 3.89 3000 $0.06 $180.00 1.57%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.70 3.81 2000 $0.11 $221.00 2.99%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.92 4.05 3000 $0.13 $390.00 3.32%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.96 4.00 10000 $0.05 $470.00 1.19%
11-May-15 VGGL Long 3.76 3.81 16700 $0.05 $871.20 1.39%
11-May-15 PTBI Long 8.34 8.42 1000 $0.08 $80.00 0.96%
11-May-15 PTBI Long 8.17 8.28 1000 $0.11 $110.00 1.35%
12-May-15 PTBI Long 9.66 9.49 8300 -$0.17 -$1,384.22 -1.73%
12-May-15 PTBI Long 9.37 9.55 4049 $0.18 $721.25 1.90%
12-May-15 PTBI Long 9.39 9.48 1000 $0.09 $90.00 0.96%
12-May-15 PTBI Long 8.94 9.08 100 $0.14 $14.00 1.57%
12-May-15 GEVO Long 4.62 4.69 8000 $0.07 $530.00 1.43%
13-May-15 GEVO Long 5.12 5.23 1000 $0.11 $110.00 2.15%
13-May-15 VGGL Long 2.98 3.07 2100 $0.09 $182.00 2.91%
13-May-15 OREX Long 5.36 5.46 1000 $0.10 $100.00 1.87%
13-May-15 ICLD Long 3.97 4.07 2000 $0.10 $196.00 2.47%
13-May-15 FCSC Long 4.34 4.33 8200 -$0.01 -$66.75 -0.19%
14-May-15 VBLT Long 5.82 5.81 8500 -$0.01 -$64.00 -0.13%
14-May-15 VBLT Long 5.65 5.78 3000 $0.12 $371.15 2.19%
18-May-15 EBIO Long 3.32 3.36 100 $0.04 $4.00 1.20%
19-May-15 GIGA Long 2.87 2.94 1000 $0.07 $70.00 2.44%
19-May-15 PTBI Long 9.86 9.93 2000 $0.07 $140.00 0.71%
19-May-15 ACHN Long 10.33 10.54 500 $0.21 $105.00 2.03%
19-May-15 ACHN Long 10.06 10.18 1500 $0.12 $175.00 1.16%
20-May-15 PBMD Long 5.79 5.75 800 -$0.04 -$36.00 -0.78%
21-May-15 ISR Long 3.35 3.41 3100 $0.06 $181.00 1.74%
21-May-15 ISR Long 3.18 3.28 8200 $0.10 $820.00 3.14%
21-May-15 AVEO Long 2.95 3.04 7500 $0.09 $683.50 3.09%
21-May-15 AVEO Long 2.62 2.64 5500 $0.02 $92.50 0.64%
21-May-15 AVEO Long 2.44 2.49 4100 $0.05 $195.45 1.95%
22-May-15 ONTY Long 3.15 3.23 2000 $0.08 $160.00 2.54%
22-May-15 PBMD Long 3.50 3.56 4000 $0.06 $258.00 1.84%
22-May-15 PBMD Long 3.36 3.45 1000 $0.09 $90.00 2.68%
22-May-15 PBMD Long 3.33 3.41 100 $0.08 $8.00 2.40%
22-May-15 DGX Long 78.95 79.47 1100 $0.51 $566.00 0.65%
26-May-15 PBMD Long 3.77 3.51 9500 -$0.27 -$2,531.00 -7.06%
26-May-15 IPCI Long 3.57 3.69 2000 $0.12 $230.00 3.22%
26-May-15 ATNM Long 3.85 3.70 2400 -$0.15 -$363.00 -3.92%
26-May-15 VBLT Long 7.34 7.35 1400 $0.02 $22.00 0.21%
26-May-15 VBLT Long 7.48 7.29 1000 -$0.19 -$190.00 -2.54%
27-May-15 CBLI Long 3.62 3.73 1000 $0.11 $110.00 3.04%
27-May-15 CBLI Long 3.48 3.54 1000 $0.06 $60.00 1.72%
27-May-15 GBSN Long 4.13 4.17 3000 $0.04 $130.00 1.05%
27-May-15 CERE Long 3.70 3.71 3125 $0.01 $39.25 0.34%
27-May-15 CERE Long 3.46 3.55 270 $0.09 $24.30 2.60%
27-May-15 CERE Long 3.20 3.04 9500 -$0.16 -$1,507.83 -4.96%
28-May-15 BIOC Long 3.31 3.38 4000 $0.06 $250.00 1.89%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 4.68 4.88 1000 $0.20 $200.00 4.27%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 4.70 4.77 1000 $0.07 $71.75 1.53%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 5.27 5.30 3800 $0.03 $129.44 0.65%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 5.07 5.15 2000 $0.07 $150.00 1.48%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 5.39 5.43 2000 $0.04 $80.00 0.74%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 5.26 5.37 1000 $0.11 $110.00 2.09%
28-May-15 OHGI Long 4.78 4.81 6150 $0.03 $161.80 0.55%
28-May-15 AMRN Long 2.45 2.32 2000 -$0.13 -$260.00 -5.31%
28-May-15 CBLI Long 3.14 3.10 8100 -$0.04 -$334.50 -1.32%
29-May-15 TBIO Long 2.93 2.96 3000 $0.03 $100.00 1.14%
29-May-15 OHGI Long 3.54 3.58 3000 $0.04 $130.00 1.23%
29-May-15 ESI Long 4.42 4.53 1000 $0.11 $110.00 2.49%
29-May-15 VBLT Long 8.20 8.17 900 -$0.03 -$26.00 -0.35%
29-May-15 VBLT Long 8.06 8.18 1000 $0.12 $120.00 1.49%
  

I'm not going to specify the PnL from different price ranges of stocks, I did it for the first two monthly recaps with three different price ranges, $1-10 (mostly $3-10), $10-20, and $20+, that helped me figure out that $2-10 dollar stocks are what I'm best at, and I stopped trading $20+ dollar stocks very much.  $2-10 dollar stocks are 95% of what I trade now, so I'm not going to bother with this part of the monthly recap, it served it's purpose and it's pointless now because I only make a couple trades per month on $20+ dollar stocks.



Now to take a look at my biggest losses on the month and review the charts and what I did wrong:

There are some INSANELY HUGE LOSSES this month, I have edited each of the charts and highlighted key things and explained the trades again there somewhat.  I have posted the edited charts with the PnL and lessons, the links to previous blog posts for that day of the big loss is there if you want to want to read it all, the edited chart should give a pretty good summary and it's easier to see when it's all in one place (click on the charts to make them bigger so that you can read it).


PTBI (On May 5th)
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short4.604.9440800-$0.33-$13,567.88-7.22%
Short7.356.834165$0.52$2,164.557.07%
Long6.696.631035-$0.06-$65.15-0.94%
  • Lessons:
  • Can always buy a "bigger runner" when it's holding higher lows ABOVE VWAP, with risk under the base/previous low, then be patient with it, sell into parabolic's or when it makes a "lower low" (4.80 base, 4.95-5.05 base/higher lows, 5.70 base, 6.40 base, 6.70 base, etc.)
  • Higher lows off of "LOD area" and VWAP reclaims are key things to be looking for to determine whether the stock is going to "fade the rest of the day" or "bounce back to the highs"
  • Be careful using VWAP rejects for a short on very quick moving, high volume stocks, it will often only WORK ONCE, if it pulls back 5-10 cents and holds another higher low and retests VWAP, it will likely break, I NEED TO "PANIC OUT" on the ask if short on the SECOND TEST on a "quick moving stock", it will often spike 5-15 cents past it very quickly (I did this twice, it pulled back 5-10 cents, but then held and instead of stopping out on the retest, I kept adding more right above it)
  • From "Nikko", pay EXTRA ATTENTION to VWAP around 11-11:30 AM, if you feel stubborn/upside down and the stock is ABOVE VWAP around this time and/or breaking out to new highs, YOU SHOULD NOT BE SHORT, don't be afraid to take the loss into the "offers", there's a very good chance it will continue going much higher throughout the day 
  • From "Michael Shadkin", past 11 AM top 25% of range, likely continues higher (be more long biased), past 11 AM bottom 25% of range, likely continues lower (be more short biased) (this isn't an "exact science" and I haven't paid very much attention to it, but I would like to pay more attention to it in the future to see if it "works", it definitely "worked" on PTBI and ICLD today)
  • From "JohnWelshTrades", try to buy/short at the day's lows/highs for the best entries, I would say this only applies when the stock is trading within a "channel range", which often happens for the first few hours like PTBI today, 4.35-4.85 range (my first short was from near the top of the range and covered at the bottom of the range, my second short was in the middle of the range and luckily covered at the bottom of the range, my last short was in the middle of the range again and the stock broke out of it's channel around 11 AM and I was very stubborn with it because I was already sized in way too big)
  • Going along with that last point, TRY TO AVOID ENTERING NEW TRADES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE "CHANNEL RANGE", or at least make sure to use less size since those are not "ideal" entries and still RESPECT HIGHER LOWS AND VWAP 
  • I need to control my overall position sizes and be careful not to add, add, add uncontrollably, have to try to make "smart" adds and keeping my overall position size under control, and knowing when to be sizing back down if I'm in too big or if it's not doing what I thought (I did the exact same thing twice, adding a lot all in one area up to 15k shares size which was way too much)
  • Making sure to exit the entire position when my thesis for the trade no longer exists (especially if I tried to but got partial fills) and not trying to "make a trade work" with more adds and re-adds in places where I wouldn't normally trade that stock, CHANGE THE ORDER AND MAKE SURE TO GET OUT (I got 500/1000 share fills twice and then I was readding where I would have probably had not been shorting yet if I had no position, which lead to a terrible average "lucky trade" and a terrible average "got smoked" trade)
  • Always pay attention to "float rotation" and be more careful/avoid shorting if the float keeps "rotating" and there's tons of volume (some sources show the float as 2.7m, others 6m, others 20m, either way, it was still "rotating" and there was a ton of volume with about 10m in the first hour and then 62m by the end of the day)
  • Slow grind ABOVE VWAP = NO REASON TO BE SHORT (I've said this so many times, and I knew this, but I was just insanely stubborn because my size was so huge, every 10 cents = 1.6k, I didn't cover 4.80's, then I missed covering when it came back to 4.95-5.10 and it went to 5.30 again in one candle which was a HUGE difference and I was frustrated that it could have just been -2k on the day and now it was -7k again, then I let it turn into -13k)
  • Always be careful shorting "Day 1" runners, they can go much further than you think
  • Never be too biased, just because a stock is "up a lot" and you have shares to short, doesn't mean you should (I made money ONLY GOING LONG on ICLD and VLTC in the last week on their "above VWAP" uptrends because I didn't have shares to short, if I didn't have shares to short of PTBI today, I would have been doing the same and probably made a ton, but I was already short with huge size and extremely stubborn)


PTBI (On May 6)
TypeEntryExitShares+/- $Amt$ PnL% Pnl
Short9.829.707800$0.12$948.111.24%
Long9.319.401000$0.09$90.000.97%
Short9.9910.054400-$0.05-$226.00-0.51%
Long9.429.71200$0.29$58.003.08%
Long9.699.81800$0.12$96.001.24%
Short9.7410.082800-$0.34-$952.00-3.49%
Long9.708.786200-$0.92-$5,678.09-9.44%
Short9.929.38650$0.54$351.005.44%
Short9.178.962400$0.21$506.002.30%
Long8.698.785000$0.09$437.001.01%
Short8.698.551425$0.14$199.501.61%
Short8.808.621000$0.18$180.002.05%
Short8.908.782700$0.12$323.001.34%
  • Lessons:
  • NEVER BE TOO BIASED, ALWAYS TRY TO FOLLOW THE "BIG PICTURE TREND"
  • Higher lows off of "LOD area" and VWAP reclaims are key things to be looking for to determine whether the stock is going to "fade the rest of the day" or "bounce back to the highs" and continue spiking
  • There are lots of "emotional candles" in the first 20 minutes, SHOULD PUT ORDER IN TO EXIT ENTIRE POSITION, usually it "snaps right back" after a washout (had I exited my ENTIRE POSITION in one order, instead of "scaling out" into any of those five dips where I covered, I would have had no position and then maybe have gone long on the opening washout or when it was still making "higher lows")
  • Be MORE SHORT BIASED NEAR THE TOP of the "CHANNEL RANGE" and more LONG BIASED NEAR THE BOTTOM (there was ABSOLUTELY ZERO REASON TO SHORT at 9.65 when the it had just came from 10.75 in 15 minutes and was now bouncing from there, and there was also not much reason to short at 9.70's when the "base" was at 9.55, NEED TO WAIT FOR A BIGGER POP to short into, like it did at 10.10-10.40, try to stay away from the "slow grind")
  • When a stock is holding VWAP "over/under" and holding HIGHER LOWS, IT WILL LIKELY HEAD HIGHER and have another "LEG UP" (VWAP was at 9.25ish in the first 15 minutes and it held higher lows 8.70, 8.80, 8.95, then "squeezed", VWAP was 9.80ish later on and it held higher lows around that area, 9.25, 9.58, 9.70ish then "squeezed") (draw a line across the "bottoms" and it basically held a "big picture" uptrend until that washout at 11:20)
  • Pay attention to the "big picture trend", draw trend lines across the bottoms/tops, it held a perfect "big picture uptrend" from 9:30 to 11:20, and then a perfect"big picture downtrend" from 11:20 until the close (use it as a guide for entries long or short, these were where the BEST entries were today for HUGE 50 cents - 2 dollar moves)
  • Making sure to exit the entire position when my thesis for the trade no longer exists (especially if I tried to but got partial fills) and not trying to "make a trade work" with more adds and re-adds in places where I wouldn't normally trade that stock, CHANGE THE ORDER AND MAKE SURE TO GET OUT (everything started from missing my order by 2 cents premarket and not taking it off for a breakevenish and "tried to make it work" then was "stuck short" and more short biased after the open)


PBMD (On May 20)
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short3.104.508200-$1.40-$11,458.00-45.05%
Long5.795.75800-$0.04-$36.00-0.78%
  • Lessons:
  • Pay attention to premarket resistance/top and do not be shorting at it/just after it, UNLESS it acts as CLEAR RESISTANCE, if it goes past it, it will likely go much higher (I had a terrible average the whole morning because I did not respect this)
  • Do not size in too much too quick, always "save bullets" for higher just in case (I should have paid more attention to how much size I was able to do since it's under 3 dollars, my max size was only about 5k shares, and I used all of it right away and didn't have any "bullets" left when it was 2.90's which would have been the place to be shorting)
  • ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO VWAP, it held "VWAP over/under" as support at 9:34 and 9:41, and most importantly at 10:40-10:53, pay attention to WHAT IT DOES AT VWAP, does it act as resistance (when it breaks below it) and keep fading, or does it reclaim right away and act as support and make a HIGHER LOW and continue on it's uptrend, RESPECT IT for covering shorts/going long
  • Have to not be "penny pinching" for a few cents and ECN rebates when trying to get out, just put order for ALL and take the ASK, it might cost you an extra 100 bucks but it would have saved me 5-10k in this case if I had just been aggressive and covered at 2.60 like I was trying to
  • Even if you missed where you were trying to cover and the trend changes, you have to just "eat the loss" when you know you are dead wrong and it's likely going higher (I was very close to just "eating the loss" at 2.80's but I was still too stubborn and frustrated that it was just only -1k at 2.60 now it was -2k, then it spiked from there and the rest is history)
  • Never be too biased, and never under-estimate how far a stock can go, I was too biased all morning but then when I was finally trying to take the loss in the 3's, I was still thinking, "cover all and reshort with even more size and make it all back", that's why I readded, but this thinking was dead wrong, I should have been thinking, "cover all and go long" instead (it's hard to do, but doing that on PBMD and PTBI would have worked out well and I probably would have made it all back or more) 
  • Try to recognize these "big runners" early on and try to "pretend" you don't have shares to short/avoid shorting, sure you can make some by shorting, but you are still fighting the "big picture trend" and you will most likely be too early on a lot of the entries (the days that these run and I don't have shares to short, I usually make money going long, the days that these run and I have shares to short, I am usually insanely stubborn and holding onto huge losses until I get bought in)


VBLT (On May 26)
Type
Entry
Exit
Shares
+/- $Amt
$ PnL
% Pnl
Short6.417.0718500-$0.66-$12,274.13-10.36%
Long7.347.351400$0.02$22.000.21%
Long7.487.291000-$0.19-$190.00-2.54%
  • Lessons:
  • CANNOT TRADE SO BIG ON THIN STOCKS
  • SLOW GRIND ABOVE VWAP = NO REASON TO STILL BE SHORT
  • Do not fight RELATIVE STRENGTH AFTER 11 AM 
  • Do not fight RELATIVE STRENGTH on big (1%+) down days on the overall market
  • Have to "panic out" sooner, just "eat the loss" into the offer before it becomes a ridiculous amount (I am might set a 3k max loss on my account, but I have to be able to "panic out" even sooner than that sometimes)
  • DO NOT READD TRYING TO MAKE A TRADE WORK THAT YOU MISSED COVERING SOME, look to just take the small loss/small profit on the remaining position into dips, rather than readding more and LOWERING YOUR AVERAGE and being unable to exit anything because your size is too big and the stock is too thin
  • DO NOT "try to make a stock seem weak/strong" by adding in places that you wouldn't normally trade that stock just because you are trying to "help your other position", IT DOESN'T WORK UNLESS YOU HAVE A REALLY, REALLY BIG ACCOUNT, 1-3k shares here and there doesn't really do anything even on a "really thin stock"

These are the four charts/trades that had my biggest losses on this month (mostly the three really big losses, but "day two" on PTBI had many things to learn from it and I also took a big loss on that long position and I was down a lot unrealized on poorly managed shorts a few times).  There are lessons and chart patterns to learn on each of them, but the main way I am going to prevent losses such as these from happening again, is by being extremely "strict" with my wiring out from now on.  Obviously, it's best to just know what is a good trade to take and what isn't, and knowing when you are "dead wrong" and being willing to "eat the loss" on your own before you let it build to catastrophic amounts as I did three times this month, but I am still going to use this "wiring out method" for now because it's what works for me.


Overall, the way I traded this month didn't work out that well, I need to be a lot more controllable with my size and better with sizing in and out.  I had three $10,000+ losing "trades" (scaling in and out is all one trade) this month which equal about 37k total and/or 4 losing days that ended up being 37k total.  Without those three losses/four losing days, my total for the month would have been around 42k instead of 5.5k, just something to think about, but I also held through other big unrealized losses that ended up working out for a profit or a least a much smaller loss than they were.


A few of the main things I still need to work on (by "still" I mean that I've been needing to work on these things for the last three months and I haven't improved/changed that much on these things yet):
  • Controlling my overall position sizes and being careful not to add, add, add uncontrollably, have to try to make "smart" adds and keeping my overall position size under control, and knowing when to be sizing back down if I'm in too big or if it's not doing what I thought
  • Making sure to exit the entire position when my thesis for the trade no longer exists (especially if I tried to but got partial fills) and not trying to "make a trade work" with more adds and re-adds in places where I wouldn't normally trade that stock
  • Making sure to exit the entire position if I know my entry isn't very good and I have a small profit, instead of trying to "scale out" for a "homerun" from a bad entry, it's much better to exit the entire position for breakeven/small profit and then look for better entries again later if it sets up again
  • Not being too greedy on sells/covers, if I have an order in at a certain spot for a reason, I need to let it fill, and not worry if I goes a bit higher/lower afterwards (there were many times that my trades were screwed up from being too greedy and CHANGING orders higher/lower and missing them)

That is my extensive trading recap for the month of May, 2015.  Not the best month of trading, I let three losses keep going until they were 10k+ and most of my account at the time, but at least it's green, the total for the month was about 5.5k after commissions with a total of 16 green days and 4 red days.  Start "fresh" again next month, I've got to make sure that actually learn from these massive losses and improve my risk management and overall trading to make sure that I don't take anymore insane 5-10k+ losing trades/red days in the coming months.

I let three losing days give back most of my month, had I made 500-1000/day consistently I would have been up a lot more than what I finished at, and a lot less stress/emotions, than being up "x" on the day/week/month, then down "x", back up "x", back down, etc.  Daily consistency is much better than the emotional and financial roller coaster of ups and downs, like this month has been, trying to force things and using too much size, and being too stubborn to take the losses early enough because it's already "too big of a loss" just because of having a large position size.  There is a great blog post by Nate about consistency at this link, https://www.investorsunderground.com/consistency-vs-dollar-profits/. 

I am going to keep my account size about the same as I was in April and on 4:1 leverage still as I have been this whole time, I don't need anything more than that to trade with.  I let my account get almost twice as big a few times this month and each of those times was where I took my biggest losses (maybe just a coincidence that those stocks came up at these times, but the losses would have been probably half as much if I didn't have so much in my account and so much BP).  I don't need that much in my account to still make a decent amount, so I will extra diligent/"strict" on my wiring out processes this next month.  Obviously, I want to have a bigger account eventually and I want to do better with position sizing on my own, but this method worked well for me in March and April, I did better with a smaller account those months that what I did this month with a bigger account, there's nothing wrong with making 1-2k/day consistently, it adds up really fast, it's much better than having 4k up days and 10k+ down days like I did this month.     

Thank you for reading, I hope you learned something from my extensive trading recap for May, 2015.