I'm a bit frustrated with LL, I feel like I had the exact right idea but just didn't have the right execution/risk management, I ended up making $350, with being down $1500ish unrealized at the highs (I have it hidden but I still have an idea of what it was), and then "missing" 2-4k in profits had I held for a few more hours.
FNJN, BIOC, and EXEL were "easy fades" off the open but I was too busy with LL to trade them, should have maybe focused on the "easy plays" and waited for LL to setup a bit more (wait to see what it does the first 5-15 minutes at least, not jumping in the first minute when I'm unsure).
FOR NEW READERS ONLY: If I am scaling in and out of a position, that is considered one trade until I am completely out of the position and then it becomes a new trade, that's why some trades have a lot of shares, even if I never had that much at once, if I cover half and then re-add my cover, it's still considered one trade until I am completely out. The entry is the average of the entries and the exit is the average of all the exits. The entries/exits are rounded to 2 decimal places, but the exact number is calculated for the PnL, so that's why the dollar amount may look different than what you see. (it may be 7.165 instead of 7.17, etc). Also, you can click on the charts if you want to make them bigger to be able to better see the entries/exits. Using two monitors can be useful (one for the full-screen chart and one for the text/trades), that's how I personally do it whenever I am reviewing my old posts.
LL
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 15.95 | 15.81 | 2600 | $0.13 | $350.00 | 0.84% |
I had not much plan or idea for my risk on this trade, the result sort of speaks for itself, but still could have been a lot worse. I started into the "dollar pop" candle at 9:31, 500 shares at 15.49 (top was 15.50), it came down to 15.08, but I couldn't get filled anywhere around there for a quick scalp, I really thought about stopping out for breakevenish if it started coming back up, but took the lazy, "oh, I can just add more" approach, I ended up with 1800 shares 15.80's average and it was hanging around 16 and holding. It ripped to 16.60's for a second but then came back to 15.67-15.70 (VWAP was 15.56ish). I was hoping that was "it" and it would break below VWAP, so I only covered half, then it popped right back to 16.50's in a few candles somewhat because of SSR, and I had readded my covers (somewhat early) to have 1700 shares 16ish average. It dipped to 16.10-16.20 twice but I didn't take it and it popped right back up each time with SSR, it then ripped to 16.80's but was rejected there and faded back to 15.80's eventually, where I preceded to cover the rest, thinking that VWAP "over/under" would hold and 16 may reclaim and act as support and not wanting to regret only covering some as I did before. I was sort of right initially that it would reclaim 16 but it still couldn't really hold above it at all and 16.10 acted as a top and it faded back below VWAP (15.87), I figured it was now "done" (should fade much lower/all day) but I didn't want to get back in with a "chase entry" and get "whipsawed". Also missed the 15.30 bounce at 11:05 when I was still in ITEK.
- Lessons:
- Make sure to cover all when you know your entry isn't very good, don't get too greedy
- Make sure to cover ALL when VWAP holds and it's still "early" (first 15-30 minutes), ESPECIALLY with SSR on, it can pop right back up VERY quickly in 1-2 candles
- Don't be "afraid" to get back in if the stock sets up again, even if it's right where you covered or even lower, don't be emotional about it, but if the set up is there and you have a planned risk, go for it (such an easy short 15.70-15.90, risk on 16-16.10 on the convincing VWAP break and the failure to hold the 16 dollar whole number)
ITEK
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 14.82 | 14.66 | 1000 | $0.17 | $165.50 | 1.12% |
Risk 15ish but should have taken my 30 cents I had on the next candle when 14.50 was holding, rather than holding it for so long. I covered half 14.57 and half 14.74 just in case it wanted to pop to 14.80-15+, but reshorted right after at 14.74 when it was failing.
| Short | 14.74 | 14.33 | 1000 | $0.41 | $413.00 | 2.80% |
Risk 14.80-14.90, was expecting this to be the top and figured 14.50 would break if it retested there, it did exactly what I wanted and I took the profits, I didn't want to stick around in "low volume chop" with a 10+ cent spread.
NTLS
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 7.48 | 7.28 | 500 | $0.20 | $100.00 | 2.67% |
Risk 7.50-7.75, only 500 shares, was willing to scale in but got the exact top, took quick profits because the stock is pretty "thin".
EFOI
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 13.40 | 12.95 | 300 | $0.45 | $135.00 | 3.36% |
Risk 13.50-14, only 300 shares was willing to scale in, entry was near the top and took quick profits because the stock is very "thin" (20-30 cent spread).
ENPH
Type
|
Entry
|
Exit
|
Shares
|
+/- $Amt
|
$ PnL
|
% Pnl
|
| Short | 6.97 | 7.00 | 4500 | -$0.03 | -$128.00 | -0.41% |
Risk was 7 "over/under" but I poorly managed it by ADDING MORE when it was just grinding which made it harder to stop out right around 7 (average was 6.91ish), I was "holding and hoping" for a quick pull and possible trend change. Ended up covering half (2250 shares) at 7.06, then 1500 shares 6.91-6.94 and accidentally held 750 into afterhours, which I covered at 6.98, it could gap down but there's hardly any volume afterhours and I just don't like holding things overnight and never do.
- Lessons:
- Work on playing the "long side" more often, I saw it on my HOD list on the perk around 2:30 and watched this whole move without taking a trade on it, it's one of those trades where there isn't really much downside, it's been consolidating 6.20-6.30 all day (and also a fairly "beat" daily chart), you can go long 6.40-6.50 with risk on 6.30-6.40 looking for a move like this (and slowly move up your mental/hard stop as it goes)
- There's no reason to short a "slow grind above VWAP", always wait for a parabolic, or possibly a lower high after a dip with a set risk, just stay away from the "slow grind" like this
- If you are going to add at all, only do it when it starts doing what you thought, but ideally just one entry, 1-2 exits if you are trading a "subpar" setup (adding to a winner may also hurt you if the setup isn't great)
- Increasing size when it's NOT WORKING makes it much harder to respect your risk/stop, try to stay away from doing this
- Always try to avoid "fighting the trend" in the last hour, unless it's a clear "premature parabolic move" that you are very confident in, usually around 3:30 EST
No comments:
Post a Comment